Once again about statistics, Nokia, Elop and burning memo
Yesterday, a topic of love for Elop was published on Habré: Nokia, Elop Effect and a burning platform .
In which, convincingly, with the involvement of statistics, it was proved that Elop had destroyed Nokiyu. Specifically, using this graph here:
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Like - see, Elop came in September 2010 and broke everything.
In that topic I acted (rather unsuccessfully) as Elop’s lawyer. Unfortunately, my reasoning somehow did not impress the habrpublica, which only let me ponostalgate for their Nokiev uberdeusas.
Ok, let's try the other side. Under the cut - another, no less interesting schedule.
This is all the same chart of market shares of different smartphone axes, only now - for all market participants.
I would like to draw your attention to the dark blue column of Windows Mobile.
As it is easy to see, Win Mobile smartphones dominated in 2006 - 37% of the market. In 2007, the situation only strengthened - 42%! And only one small detail broke the harmony - the rapid growth of iOS by 11%.
Tell what happened next? Next two years, iOS + Android turned 42% into a measly 7%. At the same time, MS did not sit idly by and released an update after the update - 6.1 in 2008, 6.5 in 2009. At the same time, MS did not release any burning memo - Windows Phone 7 was announced only in 2010.
So how did this somehow help MS? Of course not. WinMobile platform died in 2007, and nothing could save her from death. MS realized this fact, apparently, in 2009 and began to prepare a new platform in 2010.
Now back to Nokia, Elop, and Symbian’s fantastic popularity. Look at the WinMobile charts and tell me honestly: do you think Symbian had at least one chance not to repeat the fate of WinMobile?
What kind of Onolithegians are they saying that in 2010 everything was chocolate in Nokia? Show them the left side of the chart - they will predict the triumphal success of Win Mobile 6.5.
Ok, with Symbian sorted out. The second claim to Elop is that he ditched MeeGo. Ok, we look at the timings again.
Android has been developed like this since 2005. The first beta is November 2007, release is September 2008, the first relatively popular and stable release is 1.6, September 2009. At the same time in 2009, Android won back a significant part of the market - 9%. In total, Google took 4 years of development (of which two years since the beta was released) to bring Android to the market.
Well, now look MeeGo timeline:
May 2010 - release 1.0, which is more correctly called not even beta, but alpha. ( Review on Habré ); In this version of the "tachev" controls (Handset UX) yet.
October 2010 - more or less full beta for phones with Handset UX.
Total, if the development was going at the pace of Google, then a full release would be expected at the end of 2011, and a more or less stable popular branch at the end of 2012. That is, just by today, Nokia on MeeGo would have appeared in the market in noticeable quantities. If, of course, Nokia did not go bankrupt.
Now Windows Phone taymlan:
the development began supposedly in 2009 (MS maintained a deathly silence, apparently in the hope that this would somehow help the dying WinMobile).
Announcement - March 2010
release - September 2010.
OK. Imagine yourself on the site of Elop in October 2010.
MeeGo somehow released a more or less full beta for phones. Consequently, a stable version is worth waiting for in two years, at best - by Christmas 2012.
MS released the official release in September 2010. Consequently, a more or less stable version will be in a year, in the fall of 2011. (Looking ahead, this happened, the release of 7.5 Mango took place in the fall of 2011, as MS didn’t try to release it earlier.)
Overall, the choice was this:
(a) put your head in the sand, be surprised for three years by the fall of the share of the simbian and declare bankruptcy
(b) to invest everything in MeeGo, to somehow survive two years and in 2013, perhaps, to finally get its stable High-End platform
(c) partner with MS, survive 2011 and return to the big game in 2012.
We look at the graph above. In 2011, WinPhone managed to bring to the level of Android in 2008 - 2%. If WinPhone was on the Android schedule, it would have gained 9% in 2012; in fact, only 5.2% . This is the price of three years of flapping ears.
With a three-year lag, Nokia has returned to the smartphone market. Did she have another year to wait for MeeGo? Yes, where, tell me?
In which, convincingly, with the involvement of statistics, it was proved that Elop had destroyed Nokiyu. Specifically, using this graph here:
')
Like - see, Elop came in September 2010 and broke everything.
In that topic I acted (rather unsuccessfully) as Elop’s lawyer. Unfortunately, my reasoning somehow did not impress the habrpublica, which only let me ponostalgate for their Nokiev uberdeusas.
Ok, let's try the other side. Under the cut - another, no less interesting schedule.
This is all the same chart of market shares of different smartphone axes, only now - for all market participants.
I would like to draw your attention to the dark blue column of Windows Mobile.
As it is easy to see, Win Mobile smartphones dominated in 2006 - 37% of the market. In 2007, the situation only strengthened - 42%! And only one small detail broke the harmony - the rapid growth of iOS by 11%.
Tell what happened next? Next two years, iOS + Android turned 42% into a measly 7%. At the same time, MS did not sit idly by and released an update after the update - 6.1 in 2008, 6.5 in 2009. At the same time, MS did not release any burning memo - Windows Phone 7 was announced only in 2010.
So how did this somehow help MS? Of course not. WinMobile platform died in 2007, and nothing could save her from death. MS realized this fact, apparently, in 2009 and began to prepare a new platform in 2010.
Now back to Nokia, Elop, and Symbian’s fantastic popularity. Look at the WinMobile charts and tell me honestly: do you think Symbian had at least one chance not to repeat the fate of WinMobile?
What kind of Onolithegians are they saying that in 2010 everything was chocolate in Nokia? Show them the left side of the chart - they will predict the triumphal success of Win Mobile 6.5.
Ok, with Symbian sorted out. The second claim to Elop is that he ditched MeeGo. Ok, we look at the timings again.
Android has been developed like this since 2005. The first beta is November 2007, release is September 2008, the first relatively popular and stable release is 1.6, September 2009. At the same time in 2009, Android won back a significant part of the market - 9%. In total, Google took 4 years of development (of which two years since the beta was released) to bring Android to the market.
Well, now look MeeGo timeline:
May 2010 - release 1.0, which is more correctly called not even beta, but alpha. ( Review on Habré ); In this version of the "tachev" controls (Handset UX) yet.
October 2010 - more or less full beta for phones with Handset UX.
Total, if the development was going at the pace of Google, then a full release would be expected at the end of 2011, and a more or less stable popular branch at the end of 2012. That is, just by today, Nokia on MeeGo would have appeared in the market in noticeable quantities. If, of course, Nokia did not go bankrupt.
Now Windows Phone taymlan:
the development began supposedly in 2009 (MS maintained a deathly silence, apparently in the hope that this would somehow help the dying WinMobile).
Announcement - March 2010
release - September 2010.
OK. Imagine yourself on the site of Elop in October 2010.
MeeGo somehow released a more or less full beta for phones. Consequently, a stable version is worth waiting for in two years, at best - by Christmas 2012.
MS released the official release in September 2010. Consequently, a more or less stable version will be in a year, in the fall of 2011. (Looking ahead, this happened, the release of 7.5 Mango took place in the fall of 2011, as MS didn’t try to release it earlier.)
Overall, the choice was this:
(a) put your head in the sand, be surprised for three years by the fall of the share of the simbian and declare bankruptcy
(b) to invest everything in MeeGo, to somehow survive two years and in 2013, perhaps, to finally get its stable High-End platform
(c) partner with MS, survive 2011 and return to the big game in 2012.
We look at the graph above. In 2011, WinPhone managed to bring to the level of Android in 2008 - 2%. If WinPhone was on the Android schedule, it would have gained 9% in 2012; in fact, only 5.2% . This is the price of three years of flapping ears.
With a three-year lag, Nokia has returned to the smartphone market. Did she have another year to wait for MeeGo? Yes, where, tell me?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/168173/
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