Russian football on the "plus". And with a plus? Or we don’t need such football: Part 1 theoretical
Good day! Long thought to write a post or not. But just the other day, an approved calendar of the Czech Republic on football 2013/2014 appeared, and now this text is under the impression ...
What we see, looking at the schedule of games.
Tour 16: November 2 Krasnodar-Kuban and Zenit - Amkar ... Offhand in Krasnodar +10, in St. Petersburg -5.
Tour 17: November 9 Ural-Rostov: in Yekaterinburg -10, in Rostov-on-Don +10, Rubin-Krasnodar, similarly ...
Also on November 23, 30, December 7, March 8, March 15, progress strides by leaps and bounds, but bypasses the leaders of Russian football ... At the same time, in May, July, August, many “northern” teams come to visit the south, heat, in order to get "sunstroke" ... ?! “We don’t need such hockey!”
This is the first part, the theoretical. Split material because I would get a very extensive post. The algorithm itself and the idea are described below, in the second part I plan to talk about the results obtained and the implementation of the algorithm.
The territory of the Russian Federation is 1/6 of the total land area of the Earth, covers 9 time zones and contains both arctic and subtropical climatic zones. All this characterizes the process of playing sporting events in open areas, especially in the period from the end of October to the end of April, due to the territorial distribution of participants, as a very problematic and time-consuming task.
The RFPL Championship since 2012 has been held according to the updated autumn-spring scheme, which means holding games in fairly “harsh” conditions of the end of November - beginning of December and the lack of proper quality of fields and grass cover, in principle, in early spring. According to the list of teams of the championship 2012 - 2013. of the 16 competitors, at least 5 have home matches in cities located in the European part of southern Russia, where the conditions for the “autumn-winter-spring” part of the championship are most favorable, and for 4 others the home is Moscow. However, until now, the Premier League practices the distribution of competitive pairs and dates of the tournament on the basis of a blind draw, which negates the advantages of taking into account climatic factors. Unfortunately, to resolve the issue on the basis of mutual agreements with a view to transferring games to more favorable conditions, according to team representatives, is not possible due to the factor of mistrust, recommendations of security agencies and other unsportsmanlike components.
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Thus, in the aggregate, the issue of scheduling matches based on objective optimization of temperature and climate characteristics with the above-described input conditions for the lack of engagement of participants is quite relevant.
The formation of criteria by which the calendar will be optimized is a fundamental task, the solution of which follows harmoniously from the proposed relevance of the problem, namely:
1) climatic comfort;
2) objectivity of the sports principle;
3) impartiality of interested persons.
Based on certain criteria, we will create a standard club model of the Premier League. Sports clubs participating in competitions are described as a vector: [Conditional Weight, City (home)], where the element "City" is part of criterion 1 - "climate comfort", "Conventional weight" is a characteristic describing a sports club in terms of criteria 2 and 3: objectivity of the sports principle and impartiality of representatives of sports clubs during the drawing procedure.
The criterion “Climate comfort” implies a set of meteorological information about the location of the competition stage at a specific date and time during the standard procedure of forming a preliminary calendar. A lot of this information consists of the values of the minimum average temperature Tmin, the estimated level of precipitation Dlev and the level of wind power Sw and is converted into a comfort factor as follows: Climate: [Tmin, Dlev, Sw] ==> [Tmin, K1 = (Dlev * Sw) ] ==> normalization by average minimum temperature [Tmin * K1 / 100] = Climate. As a result, the criterion 1 coefficient - Crt1 is compared to each city home for the club.
The criterion "Objectivity of the sports principle" is a characteristic of the sports club, which consists of 8 elements by default (the list can be adjusted):
1. Place occupied by the club in the previous championship draw - PrPlace;
2. The average value of places according to the results of 10 previous championships - Av10Place;
3. Club rating based on IFFHS or UEFA data - IFFHSRate;
4. Rating of the club based on data from Rosstat (Institute of Public Opinion) - Rosstat;
5. The number of players in the club, called in the national teams of Russia - NumRusPlr;
6. Average attendance (in thousands of people) - AvFans;
7. The number of rounds in which the club was not fined in the previous draw - NumPunish;
8. Rating sports arena - StadRate.
The rating of the sports arena is determined on the basis of 5 criteria, for the presence of each of the criteria 1 point is awarded:
1) the presence of heated field;
2) the presence of a roof visor;
3) capacity of more than 20 thousand spectators;
4) the presence of artificial turf;
5) availability of technical means of security.
As a result, each club is characterized by the following set of Character = [PrPlace, Av10Place, IIFHSRate, Rosstat, NumRusPlr, AvFans, NumPunish, StadRate], provided that the parameters are minimized, i.e. the higher the value, the more objective. Thus, data are obtained that are independent of subjective indicators, forming criteria 2 - Crt2. They can be stored in an annually updated database, the integrity and relevance of which is confirmed by each of the competitors based on the calculation of control hash-sums or a set of electronic signatures.
The resulting structure, however, does not solve the issues of trust or the criterion "Impartiality of stakeholders".
It is likely that it will be possible to avoid fraud and extract any benefits from the automatic distribution of pairs of opposing teams, but the involvement of all stakeholders in the process will make this procedure more objective and equivalent for all participants. To solve this problem, you can apply the classic method of drawing lots, where the final result depends on the random selection of participants. In this case, the random selection is used when calculating the weight-rating of the teams participating in the procedure and is the following algorithm:
1) An authorized person or System randomly selects the number N within the number of representatives of the participating teams - from 1 to 16, ordered according to the alphabet.
2) The selected participant is invited to calculate the weight rating of a random team.
3) The system randomly selects the number M not equal to N, thereby secretly determining the command for which the calculation will be made.
4) The calculation is made, a detailed description of which is presented below. N and M numbers no longer participate in the procedure.
5) Stages 1-4 are repeated until each representative makes a calculation for a secretly determined team.
The calculation procedure uses objective indicators of the sports club M, and intuitively, on the basis of expert ideas, random variables chosen by representative N for these indicators, and representative N knows by what indicator the system has proposed to make an assessment. Accordingly, for each of the indicators Character = [1.PrPlace, 2.Av10Place, 3.IFFHSRate, 4.Rosstat, 5.NumRusPlr, 6.AvFans, 7.NumPunish, 8.StadRate], there is a set of estimates {x ... z}, belonging to the set [1 ... 8], while the estimates are not equal to each other. After evaluating each indicator, both the estimates used and, accordingly, the indicators are excluded from the procedure. After receiving estimates from a representative of N, the system calculates the team's weight-rating as the sum of the products of the corresponding indicator for a certain assessment. Thus, ratings of all participants of the competition are formed - implementation of criterion 3 - Crt3. With this approach, the final weights-ratings will be correlated in parallel, both with a random selection value and with objective sporting indicators.
As a result, for each club there are: the coefficient of climatic comfort - CRT1 and the sports component obtained by the pseudo-random transformation - CRT2.
Next, an automatic procedure is used to determine competitive pairs using the classical method, using descriptors of the participating teams: [CRT1, CRT2]. As a result, the status of the host team receives, in which the value of [CRT1 * CRT2] will be greater in the "cold" period of the calendar year or less in the "warm" period. However, it should be borne in mind that the difference between the average minimum temperatures in this case should not exceed 5 degrees Celsius. Otherwise, the owner is assigned to the team with a large value of the average - the minimum temperature at the date of the event.
At the moment, I add the above to C #. Soon I will publish the results. I'd love to see your opinion in the comments, because There are definitely controversial points in the algorithm.
Thank!
What we see, looking at the schedule of games.
Tour 16: November 2 Krasnodar-Kuban and Zenit - Amkar ... Offhand in Krasnodar +10, in St. Petersburg -5.
Tour 17: November 9 Ural-Rostov: in Yekaterinburg -10, in Rostov-on-Don +10, Rubin-Krasnodar, similarly ...
Also on November 23, 30, December 7, March 8, March 15, progress strides by leaps and bounds, but bypasses the leaders of Russian football ... At the same time, in May, July, August, many “northern” teams come to visit the south, heat, in order to get "sunstroke" ... ?! “We don’t need such hockey!”
This is the first part, the theoretical. Split material because I would get a very extensive post. The algorithm itself and the idea are described below, in the second part I plan to talk about the results obtained and the implementation of the algorithm.
General Compo
The territory of the Russian Federation is 1/6 of the total land area of the Earth, covers 9 time zones and contains both arctic and subtropical climatic zones. All this characterizes the process of playing sporting events in open areas, especially in the period from the end of October to the end of April, due to the territorial distribution of participants, as a very problematic and time-consuming task.
The RFPL Championship since 2012 has been held according to the updated autumn-spring scheme, which means holding games in fairly “harsh” conditions of the end of November - beginning of December and the lack of proper quality of fields and grass cover, in principle, in early spring. According to the list of teams of the championship 2012 - 2013. of the 16 competitors, at least 5 have home matches in cities located in the European part of southern Russia, where the conditions for the “autumn-winter-spring” part of the championship are most favorable, and for 4 others the home is Moscow. However, until now, the Premier League practices the distribution of competitive pairs and dates of the tournament on the basis of a blind draw, which negates the advantages of taking into account climatic factors. Unfortunately, to resolve the issue on the basis of mutual agreements with a view to transferring games to more favorable conditions, according to team representatives, is not possible due to the factor of mistrust, recommendations of security agencies and other unsportsmanlike components.
')
Thus, in the aggregate, the issue of scheduling matches based on objective optimization of temperature and climate characteristics with the above-described input conditions for the lack of engagement of participants is quite relevant.
The formation of criteria by which the calendar will be optimized is a fundamental task, the solution of which follows harmoniously from the proposed relevance of the problem, namely:
1) climatic comfort;
2) objectivity of the sports principle;
3) impartiality of interested persons.
Based on certain criteria, we will create a standard club model of the Premier League. Sports clubs participating in competitions are described as a vector: [Conditional Weight, City (home)], where the element "City" is part of criterion 1 - "climate comfort", "Conventional weight" is a characteristic describing a sports club in terms of criteria 2 and 3: objectivity of the sports principle and impartiality of representatives of sports clubs during the drawing procedure.
Climate
The criterion “Climate comfort” implies a set of meteorological information about the location of the competition stage at a specific date and time during the standard procedure of forming a preliminary calendar. A lot of this information consists of the values of the minimum average temperature Tmin, the estimated level of precipitation Dlev and the level of wind power Sw and is converted into a comfort factor as follows: Climate: [Tmin, Dlev, Sw] ==> [Tmin, K1 = (Dlev * Sw) ] ==> normalization by average minimum temperature [Tmin * K1 / 100] = Climate. As a result, the criterion 1 coefficient - Crt1 is compared to each city home for the club.
Club
The criterion "Objectivity of the sports principle" is a characteristic of the sports club, which consists of 8 elements by default (the list can be adjusted):
1. Place occupied by the club in the previous championship draw - PrPlace;
2. The average value of places according to the results of 10 previous championships - Av10Place;
3. Club rating based on IFFHS or UEFA data - IFFHSRate;
4. Rating of the club based on data from Rosstat (Institute of Public Opinion) - Rosstat;
5. The number of players in the club, called in the national teams of Russia - NumRusPlr;
6. Average attendance (in thousands of people) - AvFans;
7. The number of rounds in which the club was not fined in the previous draw - NumPunish;
8. Rating sports arena - StadRate.
The rating of the sports arena is determined on the basis of 5 criteria, for the presence of each of the criteria 1 point is awarded:
1) the presence of heated field;
2) the presence of a roof visor;
3) capacity of more than 20 thousand spectators;
4) the presence of artificial turf;
5) availability of technical means of security.
As a result, each club is characterized by the following set of Character = [PrPlace, Av10Place, IIFHSRate, Rosstat, NumRusPlr, AvFans, NumPunish, StadRate], provided that the parameters are minimized, i.e. the higher the value, the more objective. Thus, data are obtained that are independent of subjective indicators, forming criteria 2 - Crt2. They can be stored in an annually updated database, the integrity and relevance of which is confirmed by each of the competitors based on the calculation of control hash-sums or a set of electronic signatures.
An accident
The resulting structure, however, does not solve the issues of trust or the criterion "Impartiality of stakeholders".
It is likely that it will be possible to avoid fraud and extract any benefits from the automatic distribution of pairs of opposing teams, but the involvement of all stakeholders in the process will make this procedure more objective and equivalent for all participants. To solve this problem, you can apply the classic method of drawing lots, where the final result depends on the random selection of participants. In this case, the random selection is used when calculating the weight-rating of the teams participating in the procedure and is the following algorithm:
1) An authorized person or System randomly selects the number N within the number of representatives of the participating teams - from 1 to 16, ordered according to the alphabet.
2) The selected participant is invited to calculate the weight rating of a random team.
3) The system randomly selects the number M not equal to N, thereby secretly determining the command for which the calculation will be made.
4) The calculation is made, a detailed description of which is presented below. N and M numbers no longer participate in the procedure.
5) Stages 1-4 are repeated until each representative makes a calculation for a secretly determined team.
The calculation procedure uses objective indicators of the sports club M, and intuitively, on the basis of expert ideas, random variables chosen by representative N for these indicators, and representative N knows by what indicator the system has proposed to make an assessment. Accordingly, for each of the indicators Character = [1.PrPlace, 2.Av10Place, 3.IFFHSRate, 4.Rosstat, 5.NumRusPlr, 6.AvFans, 7.NumPunish, 8.StadRate], there is a set of estimates {x ... z}, belonging to the set [1 ... 8], while the estimates are not equal to each other. After evaluating each indicator, both the estimates used and, accordingly, the indicators are excluded from the procedure. After receiving estimates from a representative of N, the system calculates the team's weight-rating as the sum of the products of the corresponding indicator for a certain assessment. Thus, ratings of all participants of the competition are formed - implementation of criterion 3 - Crt3. With this approach, the final weights-ratings will be correlated in parallel, both with a random selection value and with objective sporting indicators.
As a result, for each club there are: the coefficient of climatic comfort - CRT1 and the sports component obtained by the pseudo-random transformation - CRT2.
Next, an automatic procedure is used to determine competitive pairs using the classical method, using descriptors of the participating teams: [CRT1, CRT2]. As a result, the status of the host team receives, in which the value of [CRT1 * CRT2] will be greater in the "cold" period of the calendar year or less in the "warm" period. However, it should be borne in mind that the difference between the average minimum temperatures in this case should not exceed 5 degrees Celsius. Otherwise, the owner is assigned to the team with a large value of the average - the minimum temperature at the date of the event.
Instead of conclusion
At the moment, I add the above to C #. Soon I will publish the results. I'd love to see your opinion in the comments, because There are definitely controversial points in the algorithm.
Thank!
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/168143/
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