For the past four and a half years, the iOS App Store has been a promised land for independent game developers. Teams of two or three people could develop and publish an application with a real chance to break through to the top of the charts. Anyone could get his “moment of glory”: Croatian brothers (Doodle Jump), husband with wife (Temple Run) or builder with minimal programming experience (Geared). It was a modern gold rush.
These days are officially over. In fact, they ended at the end of 2011, and even the rolling wave of game consoles on Android will not save independent game developers.
"Indie games are declining," wrote Zen Studios creative director Neil Sorens last month. “
One shoe has already fallen , wait for the other,” he said about saturating the mobile gaming market and game domination from major publishers on digital distribution platforms.
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Apple recently published a list of the most profitable applications of 2012 and it consists mainly of games. All of them are from major developers and about half are free, they work according to the freemium model, farm-like games that encourage high costs.
The story of a little man who has become big in the App Store now looks more like a legend than a real phenomenon. For the entire 2012, there was only one example of the appearance of an unknown indie developer who made a hit game with a minimum budget - this is James Vaughan, the 25-year-old creator of Plague Inc.'s epidemic development simulator.
The small development teams that succeeded in 2012 all had one or two hits in previous years. The great Hundreds puzzle for the iPad, for example, was made by Adam Saltsman, who previously created Canabalt, and Greg Volvend, whom we know from working with Gasketball. Since some small studios have already made a name for themselves on great games in the past, the games they will make in the future will have a market advantage over the App Store newbies.
And we are not talking about major publishers. Look at the list of the most downloaded paid applications of 2012, and you will see the whole clip, consisting of Rovio, Disney, Electronic Arts and Zynga. Several applications from independent developers on this list were published in 2011 or even earlier. Newbies in 2012 for the most part failed to knock out large developers from this list. And in the coming years, getting to the top will become even more difficult if you consider the changes that Apple is making in terms of presenting and promoting games in the store.
If you are unknown, the chances that you will succeed in the 2013 App Store are not in your favor. And new gaming platforms, unfortunately, cannot offer you more.
This year, low-cost micro consoles will enter the market, promising to bring the App Store experience to our homes. First came Ouya, a $ 99 Android game console, but since then a few more have been introduced. The two most promising are GameStick, a game console that fits, in fact, in the controller itself, and Nvidia Shield, a hybrid of a smartphone and joystick. Both work on Android.
These new systems promise, at a minimum, to eat off part of the television gaming market, offering a low entry barrier for developers, especially for those who are already creating games for mobile devices on Android. They position themselves as a “safe haven” for indie developers making small console games, but the harsh reality is that big publishers easily capture the market for these platforms.
Check out the Google Play sales charts. The best-selling games are dominated by established universes, such as Grand Theft Auto, Need for Speed ​​and Minecraft. The showcase of any console on Android will only reflect this situation on the big screen. The flow of ready-made telephone applications from large publishers will flood the market on the day of the release of these consoles, effectively “squeezing” everyone who tries to do something original for these platforms.
Just as it was very simple for traditional publishers to port sloped versions of existing console games on the App Store in the past, now this trend can be easily deployed and games created for small screens will become cheap, low-quality ports on new Android consoles. What will stop Disney and Electronic Arts from stomping and squeezing kids?
The Ouya controller even includes a touchpad for working with mobile ports, so it’s not hard to imagine how ugly, stretched version of Temple Run will lead the rating of downloaded applications.
And what a blessing for Rockstar Games that the studio has taken the trouble to develop the Android version of Grand Theft Auto III. All you need to do to release the game on Ouya is to remove all on-screen control buttons that make management so difficult. Then, BOOM, their clumsy mobile port will again become a decent console game. Square Enix has already announced its intention to do the same with its Android version of Final Fantasy III.
Some developers will want to use Ouya or GameStick as a platform for new and original games, but it is more likely that the dominant mobile developers will see in these devices a dump for cheap and fast ports. And since these games are so popular now, they can easily pull all their money from users and drive out innovation.
And if the new wave of consoles on Android will not be able to separate themselves from their mobile relatives, then it will not have any meaning for small developers. Small companies will be forced out by a swarm of ports, in the App Store the dominance of big players and indie developers will continue to hear the sound of the second boot dropping.