Robotism - futurological forecast

At one time, Marx argued that capitalism would be replaced by communism, and the oppressed class — the proletariat — would come to power. In my opinion, this assumption is quite controversial, even if all IT specialists are ranked in this class. After all, after the slave system, slaves did not come to power, and after feudalism, the peasants did.
But even leaving the views of Marx (along with other inconsistencies) on his conscience, the question nevertheless remains - what will happen after capitalism? Reflecting on this, I am convinced that the next formation will most likely be called ROBOTISM, or something like that.

What Marx was right about is that the change of order by revolution occurs only when a certain revolutionary situation develops in society. In other words, when society matures for this, not before. Attempts to accelerate to anything good did not lead - the system sooner or later rolls back to the previous level. Therefore, first of all, we need to pay attention to how society will change in terms of creating prerequisites for a revolutionary situation, and what this will ultimately lead us to.
Allow me to describe, in my opinion, the most likely scenario of creating a revolutionary situation. As usual, the basis of everything is the scientific and technical progress.

• Creation by one or several companies of a universal home robot with an external ecosystem, like iOs or Android. It will probably be a modular design that can be “upgraded”. At first, the price may be like that of a car, but over time it will probably decrease somewhere to the level of a motorcycle. The basic functionality - intellectual cleaning of the room - this is enough to recoup the cleaning worker in a few years or to give the woman you love more free time.
• The rapid increase in the number of programs at the expense of the ecosystem, together with the release of various additional manipulators and sensors, will lead to an expansion of the functionality before cooking, sorting household things, washing and ironing. There will be programs like “99 recipes for borscht” for $ 1.99 and the like. Gradually, over several years, the home robot will change our life.
• The avalanche-like growth of investments in software, sensors, and the improvement of manipulators, along with a reduction in the cost of components, will create a universal assistant not only for the home, but also for work. For a start, it will be just an assistant road worker, builder or janitor. Payback, even with a small salary of a living worker will be extremely fast. A loader in Moscow receives from 20 to 30 thousand rubles a month. Together with taxes and other expenses - at least $ 12,000 per year. The robot is ready to ship around the clock and at its price, for example, $ 24,000, will pay off in two years. When working in two shifts - for the year. Of course, the robot must be serviced. But sometimes a person is sick.
• The introduction of universal robots in the industry will reduce the cost of goods produced. Moreover, the salary factor will sharply decrease, and taxation factors, good business conditions, energy costs and quality of management will increase.
• There will be a global redistribution of world production. Gradually, China (if it does not change its role in the global economy) will lose its main advantage - cheap labor. Europe and America will begin to restore their positions. The difference in income between states will increase. The golden billion will no longer need poor countries with cheap labor — investment will stop there.
• Within countries, a huge amount of low-skilled labor will be released. The list of professions is huge - production, utilities, construction workers, the service sector (yes, the area that used to absorb surplus resources will now begin to issue them).

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Here comes the revolutionary situation. Releasing a huge amount of labor will lead to massive unemployment. Not 7-11% as it is now, but 30-50-70%, and the percentage will grow steadily. The unemployed are the driving force of the new revolution and the change of the social system.

I do not think that any significant influence will be gained by movements that limit scientific and technical progress, like the Luddites . But the state, if it does not want barricades, will have to introduce new rules that legally fix lifelong provision for life-long unemployed, introduce additional taxes and, as a result, reduce the competitiveness of their own goods.

So what will happen to the competitiveness of goods in the era of universal robots? It is logical that the introduction of universal robots by an enterprise will lead to an increase in the efficiency and release of workers. This will lead later to tax increases. Taxes will depend on the number of unemployed and on living standards. It is not difficult to guess that the winners will be those states where there are fewer residents, which will be based on qualified personnel - managers and engineers.

Such states will be able to repeatedly scale their own production, reduce taxes, increasing production and again reduce taxes. I personally see South Korea as the first candidate for the role of such an economic superstate. This country already has the highest labor productivity, an excellent investment climate, a good education and a powerful, even disproportionate, presence in the global economy.

In Russia, unfortunately, the prospects are poorly viewed. The factor of minerals, the sale of which on the one hand enriches officials, on the other, reduces the competitiveness of industrial goods (indirectly, through overestimation of production costs), already now does not help the development of the country. In the future, with the development of technology, this role, I suppose, will decline. The absence of an attractive investment climate, the rudimentary traditions of management - all this does not add us any points either.

Let me summarize.

• There will be a stratification of society on the principle of workers and the unemployed. The unemployed majority will have a guaranteed but modest income. This will allow someone to be realized in creativity, someone to concentrate on cheap sports entertainment. Someone, as is usually the case when changing formations, is marginalized or sinks to the bottom.
• There will be a stratification of states according to the volume of social burden. Superstate (South Korea, maybe the United States and Germany) will receive a significant leap in development. Europe will surely retain its status quo. Production in China and other countries attractive due to low-cost labor will fall.
• Probably the first universal home robots will appear over the next decade. Somewhere in ten years the technology will rapidly develop and in twenty years the consequences of the global scientific and technological revolution will become noticeable. In another ten or twenty years, the world will be different. Total 40-50 years. Wait and see.