Some additional thoughts about the future of IT for 2012-17
Starting to write a comment to the post “Guessing on the coffee grounds, or what will IT be in 5 years?” , I realized that it was time to write a separate post about my views on the future of IT.
To the author’s opinion, which we can generally agree with, I would like to add a topic about the relationship of IT with other spheres of human activity , about subject areas and professions.
IT development is always accompanied by their penetration into some new areas of application, where they were not there before or they have been used to a limited extent. At the same time, in a sense, the totality of IT users (demography, psychology) and IT professionals (subject areas, specialization, educational background, form of employment) is changing.
')
For example, 2007-12 - This is the time of mass distribution of social networks and the rapid growth of all kinds of start-ups, the practical approval during the crisis of the idea that IT and innovation in general is the future, that many plankton-like directions will get rid of staff, and IT will grow. (The negative side of this was the emergence of amateur investors, who are not particularly versed in the essence of a specific IT project, and therefore are blowing bubbles along the way.)
It is also a time of a rapid intrusion into the market of mobile platforms, business infrastructure, allowing developers for phones and tablets to easily promote their software and earn money by selling it, plus payment within applications, etc. ... And also develop mobile software as a client to web projects As a result, many web projects are no longer reduced to the web alone (and this trend is acquiring new qualities, which will be discussed later).
2002-07 - Internet access from public disfavor after the dot-com crash. At the beginning of this period, many users were not yet convinced about the future of IT, or at least their rapid development. The network was considered primarily as a means of leisure at a stationary computer, the maximum is the medium for buying niche types of goods and services, simple communication (soap, ICQ, chat). Then, suddenly, the term Web 2.0 appeared, started talking about the revival of the whole Internet movement, a wave of blogs started with UGC, memes (then rare, memorable and long-lived). (Social and microblogging is the next era, then they were perceived as exotic.)
During this period, mobile applications occupied a very small and difficult to monetize niche, but there was a boom in hardware media gadgets (thanks to which PCs were increasingly viewed as a center for connecting numerous peripherals). Both the speed of the Internet and the quality of access to it have increased - not yet today's megabits, but already not a dial-up. There was some mobile Internet.
1997-2002 - I found in the Network itself only partially, but obviously, it was a time of “collision with reality”. Prior to this, BG and the company so much buzzed their ears about the future information highway and the like, and the first contact of most users with the Internet was rather a slow, torn dial-up with characteristic static sites on a yellow background. Programming for the desktop was still considered as a sovereign area, although in the end I remember screams like “bye bye software!”, They say, soon there will be only one browser and web services. For the programmer, it was a hard times, a swinging demand for his activities from Y2K and the dot-com boom to their collapse.
In terms of hardware, a more or less complicated USB peripherals appeared, the idea that many types of devices connected to PC were potentially infinite, and users began to consider it not only as a finite set of interfaces, but also as a digital platform expandable by a flick of the wrist mainly multimedia and printing applications. Digital music was rapidly spreading, then video, photos of more or less decent quality, it was obvious to advanced people that in N years all media would be digitized, including books, the idea of “digitalization” went to the masses. In terms of performance, the GHz race, the memory (the hurdling race, because of the 1999 Taiwan earthquake, as now with hard drives), 3D accelerators, as they used to call the video card, sharpened. Among domestic developers, Sharovar is gaining some popularity, but there are not so many of them. The boom of first startups is also limited. The beginning of the revival of Apple, the obvious is not all.
1992-97 ... according to legends and archaeological research, the first invasion of the very idea of the Internet in the mass consciousness, then still little supported by reality. The explosive growth of users dobebi services - Usenet with eternal September, Fido, the first browsers and domains. Spread the CD, but not yet the MP3. Computers are mainly in offices, at least in our area. A lot of digital and analog multimedia technology is still not connected to each other and the idea that once it will all be connected has not yet reached the consciousness of the user. Comp for the mainstream - a means of working with textual information, for an advanced user - with graphics. The first photoshop and other samples of desktop printing software. The first 3D games. Apple in the ass.
1987-92 , again according to legends ... an epidemic of viruses in the media, the arrival of the user's ideas in Russian realities, and not just the programmer or the “operator”, the incredibly expensive IBM-PC-AT-XT from MMM :), in the hands of ZX fans, in schools, agate, corvette, yamaha, etc., lamers write in Basik, advanced in Pascal ... in the developed world, many of them are inertial on poppies, in the graphic sphere they are out of competition ... we have software for organizations and organizations; lovers write dosovsky games like “field of miracles”, “merchant”, which are then copied from each other on expensive floppy disks ...
1982-87 ... in the west, an intrusion into the masses of the very idea of a PC, some unique people even buy it, make money on elementary functions like file management, archiving; the first flowering of poppy culture; Tetris ... we have - mostly by the Research Institute, the curtain is just beginning to fall ...
1977-82 ... the time of jobs and wozies, Western corporations realize that PC is the future ... the beginning of the IBM PC era as it is
1972-77 ... the time of the gates on the antediluvian gland and the Homebrew Computer Club ,,, we have Glushkov desperately trying to convince the country's leadership that Wikipedia, YouTube and the like will appear once, but they don’t really listen to it ...
1967-72 ... computers are used to control Apollo; Intel is a microprocessor, but companies are wondering why and to whom it may even be needed ... in Chile they make Cybersin ...
1962-67 ... space, the beginning of the robotization of the automotive industry, Moore's law, popularization of cybernetics, radical ideas about AI, machine translation, fiction about talking computers ...
... perhaps 50 years is enough to evaluate the IT procession around the world, divided into conventional steps.
And now we are going in 2012–17, what will we see there? We will see the coming into the mainstream of some key trends, which today are the lot of a small minority, but have already become apparent and are rapidly developing:
- iron as an object of development - in the broad sense of the word, the boom of DIY-solutions on basic platforms is starting now, people suddenly wanted to not only code or design, but also to solder, collect something, etc .;
- respectively, the platforms for this hardware - Arduino, Raspberry Pi or something like Parallella (remember? They did manage to collect their $ 750k) - one of the promising areas for corporations;
- further separation of computing and interface subsystems in architecture - when the device's CPU serves mainly for current user interaction, and specific numerical tasks are shifted to a separate module, for example, a video card or a multi-core "home supercomputer" (which prospects should not be assessed by what number of today's PC users can use it, but how did the PC itself evolve when it was still a lot of geeks);
- crowdfunding , for some reason, not at all mentioned in the article - for many projects it will become a more affordable way of financing than classical investments in a startup; most likely it will be the way to create platforms that will go to the masses in 2017-22;
- a start - up as a combination of a web service, a mobile client and hardware - amid the frustration of investors in social networks, interest shifts to something more tangible, and in the meantime, iron is easier to order and produce;
- 3D printing, home robotics (including under the influence of online courses) as examples of new classes of user devices that attract the attention of developers (and beginners are conveniently monetized);
- Another intensively growing scope of IT is medicine and health management , where increasing mobility and compactness means increasing the range of devices used by humans for self-administration (in addition to the traditional medical market);
- in the information systems themselves, which are now starting to process even more diverse data, their number is increasing in an avalanche-like manner and requires special solutions in terms of their processing - so-called. Big Data . This, apparently, will be the theme number 1 for "clean" ITshnikov, systems engineers,
- in the field of online education , as the author has already noted, there is a further accumulation of capacities and structuring, projects of “digital diplomas” appear (integration of the results of courses taken by the student from various providers), thanks to which online projects are gaining the weight necessary for the invasion of previously closed professions outside IT;
- at the same time, in terms of the IT professional structure, the spread of these technologies to iron, medicine and education, as well as the spread of IT education in the online format for the masses, means a further increase in the number of IT specialists - subject-matter specialists and industry specialists who have mastered IT profession ;
- in terms of IT demography , which the author has already touched on a bit, more and more not only Indians, but also, for example, Africans will appear on the global level. Domestic ITShnik will become a little older, mature and, what pleases, will achieve even greater popularity in the global market as a developer of complex, non-standard, extreme solutions. In general, the coming era of iron, monetization of DIY in spite of the corporate-consumer approach is our element, we will revive the Soviet practice of amateur work with soldering irons, technical education, open even more hackerspaces and start conquering the world :). It is only a matter of time.
In terms of employment forms , it seems that the boundaries between freelancing and corporate will blur slightly, freelancing will go to some previously difficult for him niches as career management and education will increasingly be based on simple, easily accessible online profiles on social networks and new specialized services, including certification of this data. Among startups, which is already noticeable now, some structuring occurs, they are classified according to the degree of radical innovation, economic effect, estimated payback periods, etc. - the saying about Apollo and Angry Birds has already been heard by everyone and more and more people realize that entertainment is their market potential is not the only useful IT application for humanity. Farsighted venture investors are emerging who, instead of guaranteeing quick monetization for ideological reasons, are investing in more fundamental technologies (what I call “supervenchur,” Peter Thil, for example).
The economy as a whole, under the influence of IT, demonstrates the crises of old industries and the rise of new ones, and often they are not even directly related to IT, but are a side effect of the totality of technical and social changes. The stronger the crisis, the more intense this process and the more post-crisis (or chronically-crisis) the world is qualitatively different from the pre-crisis. To remedy the effects of the crisis for a particular subject, at least a qualitative shift in understanding the role of education, professional and general development in a dynamically changing economy is necessary. ITshniki as a whole are at the forefront of this trend, they have got used to upgrade for a long time and therefore they respond constructively faster than inert capital and labor-intensive industries. A specific feature of the upcoming stage is the forced automation and robotization of production not only of high-tech products not only in developed countries, as we see in the example of Foxconn in China. This leads to some “reversal” (but not literal) of the usual process of driving out industry to developing countries. In addition, a number of purely "human" professions such as medical professionals, educational workers (who need IT as an even more user-friendly device and services of the apple type) are becoming relevant.
You could also add about IT and energy-saving, "green" technologies , but here everything is somehow dull. In general, these technologies are in the general trend of shifting accents to iron and reducing the cost of its development, in 5 years they will most likely come out of anti-HYIP and we will see many solutions, good and different. For IT, energy efficiency is primarily a further increase in mobility and scalability. What can bring both a breakthrough in supercomputers, and new even more compact and economical applications of iron up to implants, sensors, microrobots, etc. This is already a matter of technology, terms vary; our task is to identify a general trend: energy is interesting and relevant.
The copywriters will most likely continue to rage even more furiously, but as the alternative models of monetization, in particular crowdfunding, mature, their prestige in society will drop even more, and the pirates will strengthen their political positions. Compared to them, patent rolls are in a more advantageous position, since they often run into corporations for which society has no particular sympathy. However, concern about the destructive impact of patent-trolling on the pace of innovation is likely to push many to revise patent laws.
Politicians will continue to attempt to regulate the Network, as well as limit the spread of some new hardware technologies, such as glasses with hidden cameras, or use them to the detriment of society, such as the Saudi project to track women. However, they have not achieved much success in this. Even the VKF will shake as the number of competent users interested in unfiltered content grows. The reason is that the driver of these changes is society itself. Censorship in the long term does not work and can not work. In some countries, during this period, technology will undoubtedly help society achieve significant changes in political power; and I will deliberately leave open the questions “who?”, “where?” and “when?”, noting only that IT is only a lever that multiplies society’s efforts to achieve the desired changes, which depends on many hidden factors, therefore accurate forecasts here are inappropriate. But the vector is clear, and this is an objective historical process: technology helps society evolve. This should be perceived adequately and be prepared for this, as well as a reflection of the political tendencies mentioned, which will clearly become even angrier and more sophisticated.
Science and IT are spliced in more and more unexpected ways. Historically, IT has emerged from “big science”, but today we are seeing phenomena when amateur users combine via the Internet either for distributed computing, or for “human” processing of some kind of hard-to-recognize data (a classification of galaxies), or to search for “human” solutions of scientific problems instead of stupid enumeration (folding of proteins, design of RNA), which is often most effective in the form of a game (in the general trend of gamification of everything and everyone, which has now become boring, and apparently has entered the period of public disappointments, but real achievements are still ahead). How can you try to monetize these and other examples of open science, DIY-science for 5 years? Most likely today they are similar to Linux or Wikipedia, that is, the prospects for commercialization are very vague, but these trends can become a platform on which some derivative, applied solutions will grow tomorrow, and now they will attract money and form new directions of development IT and other technologies are similar to the Homebrew Computer Club itself and other hacker initiatives of the last century, the authors of which very seldom thought about money.
Finally, “pure IT” or Computer Science frontier in the context of all this movement. There has already been said many times and more than once - clouds, big data, high loads, high performance computing, AI, machine learning and other topics of the same online courses. The general evolution is, as it were, visible, but qualitative phenomena are interesting. For example, DDoS, which has recently become almost an ordinary means of competition and has in fact formed a whole industry of protection against it. All due to the fact that the Internet has moved "normal" business with its own characteristics of work.
— «» - ( « ») — . , , . . , . . « » — . , , . «» «» . . , . , , . , , , , , . . , -DDoS.
In conclusion, I slightly paraphrase the beginning of the author's post.
When I started working with a PC in 1993, I had no idea that this would become my profession.
When I got acquainted with Windows exactly 14 years ago and realized that IT is mine, I did not even hear about the laws of Moore and Metcalf and poorly understood the essence of accelerating progress in this area.
1999 , , - , , - , , , , ( 2010), , , , - !
00- - , , , - - …
... and now I don’t want to quote Socrates once again, but rather to extract the maximum practical benefit from his position, not only in the form of modest or not so much earnings and victorious “aha, I told you. that it will be so! ”, but also in the form, so to speak, of regular dents in the Universe :).
Many thanks to the author of the original post for inspiration and let your brain not become scanty for fresh ideas!
Comments and additions are welcome :)
To the author’s opinion, which we can generally agree with, I would like to add a topic about the relationship of IT with other spheres of human activity , about subject areas and professions.
IT development is always accompanied by their penetration into some new areas of application, where they were not there before or they have been used to a limited extent. At the same time, in a sense, the totality of IT users (demography, psychology) and IT professionals (subject areas, specialization, educational background, form of employment) is changing.
')
For example, 2007-12 - This is the time of mass distribution of social networks and the rapid growth of all kinds of start-ups, the practical approval during the crisis of the idea that IT and innovation in general is the future, that many plankton-like directions will get rid of staff, and IT will grow. (The negative side of this was the emergence of amateur investors, who are not particularly versed in the essence of a specific IT project, and therefore are blowing bubbles along the way.)
It is also a time of a rapid intrusion into the market of mobile platforms, business infrastructure, allowing developers for phones and tablets to easily promote their software and earn money by selling it, plus payment within applications, etc. ... And also develop mobile software as a client to web projects As a result, many web projects are no longer reduced to the web alone (and this trend is acquiring new qualities, which will be discussed later).
2002-07 - Internet access from public disfavor after the dot-com crash. At the beginning of this period, many users were not yet convinced about the future of IT, or at least their rapid development. The network was considered primarily as a means of leisure at a stationary computer, the maximum is the medium for buying niche types of goods and services, simple communication (soap, ICQ, chat). Then, suddenly, the term Web 2.0 appeared, started talking about the revival of the whole Internet movement, a wave of blogs started with UGC, memes (then rare, memorable and long-lived). (Social and microblogging is the next era, then they were perceived as exotic.)
During this period, mobile applications occupied a very small and difficult to monetize niche, but there was a boom in hardware media gadgets (thanks to which PCs were increasingly viewed as a center for connecting numerous peripherals). Both the speed of the Internet and the quality of access to it have increased - not yet today's megabits, but already not a dial-up. There was some mobile Internet.
1997-2002 - I found in the Network itself only partially, but obviously, it was a time of “collision with reality”. Prior to this, BG and the company so much buzzed their ears about the future information highway and the like, and the first contact of most users with the Internet was rather a slow, torn dial-up with characteristic static sites on a yellow background. Programming for the desktop was still considered as a sovereign area, although in the end I remember screams like “bye bye software!”, They say, soon there will be only one browser and web services. For the programmer, it was a hard times, a swinging demand for his activities from Y2K and the dot-com boom to their collapse.
In terms of hardware, a more or less complicated USB peripherals appeared, the idea that many types of devices connected to PC were potentially infinite, and users began to consider it not only as a finite set of interfaces, but also as a digital platform expandable by a flick of the wrist mainly multimedia and printing applications. Digital music was rapidly spreading, then video, photos of more or less decent quality, it was obvious to advanced people that in N years all media would be digitized, including books, the idea of “digitalization” went to the masses. In terms of performance, the GHz race, the memory (the hurdling race, because of the 1999 Taiwan earthquake, as now with hard drives), 3D accelerators, as they used to call the video card, sharpened. Among domestic developers, Sharovar is gaining some popularity, but there are not so many of them. The boom of first startups is also limited. The beginning of the revival of Apple, the obvious is not all.
1992-97 ... according to legends and archaeological research, the first invasion of the very idea of the Internet in the mass consciousness, then still little supported by reality. The explosive growth of users dobebi services - Usenet with eternal September, Fido, the first browsers and domains. Spread the CD, but not yet the MP3. Computers are mainly in offices, at least in our area. A lot of digital and analog multimedia technology is still not connected to each other and the idea that once it will all be connected has not yet reached the consciousness of the user. Comp for the mainstream - a means of working with textual information, for an advanced user - with graphics. The first photoshop and other samples of desktop printing software. The first 3D games. Apple in the ass.
1987-92 , again according to legends ... an epidemic of viruses in the media, the arrival of the user's ideas in Russian realities, and not just the programmer or the “operator”, the incredibly expensive IBM-PC-AT-XT from MMM :), in the hands of ZX fans, in schools, agate, corvette, yamaha, etc., lamers write in Basik, advanced in Pascal ... in the developed world, many of them are inertial on poppies, in the graphic sphere they are out of competition ... we have software for organizations and organizations; lovers write dosovsky games like “field of miracles”, “merchant”, which are then copied from each other on expensive floppy disks ...
1982-87 ... in the west, an intrusion into the masses of the very idea of a PC, some unique people even buy it, make money on elementary functions like file management, archiving; the first flowering of poppy culture; Tetris ... we have - mostly by the Research Institute, the curtain is just beginning to fall ...
1977-82 ... the time of jobs and wozies, Western corporations realize that PC is the future ... the beginning of the IBM PC era as it is
1972-77 ... the time of the gates on the antediluvian gland and the Homebrew Computer Club ,,, we have Glushkov desperately trying to convince the country's leadership that Wikipedia, YouTube and the like will appear once, but they don’t really listen to it ...
1967-72 ... computers are used to control Apollo; Intel is a microprocessor, but companies are wondering why and to whom it may even be needed ... in Chile they make Cybersin ...
1962-67 ... space, the beginning of the robotization of the automotive industry, Moore's law, popularization of cybernetics, radical ideas about AI, machine translation, fiction about talking computers ...
... perhaps 50 years is enough to evaluate the IT procession around the world, divided into conventional steps.
And now we are going in 2012–17, what will we see there? We will see the coming into the mainstream of some key trends, which today are the lot of a small minority, but have already become apparent and are rapidly developing:
- iron as an object of development - in the broad sense of the word, the boom of DIY-solutions on basic platforms is starting now, people suddenly wanted to not only code or design, but also to solder, collect something, etc .;
- respectively, the platforms for this hardware - Arduino, Raspberry Pi or something like Parallella (remember? They did manage to collect their $ 750k) - one of the promising areas for corporations;
- further separation of computing and interface subsystems in architecture - when the device's CPU serves mainly for current user interaction, and specific numerical tasks are shifted to a separate module, for example, a video card or a multi-core "home supercomputer" (which prospects should not be assessed by what number of today's PC users can use it, but how did the PC itself evolve when it was still a lot of geeks);
- crowdfunding , for some reason, not at all mentioned in the article - for many projects it will become a more affordable way of financing than classical investments in a startup; most likely it will be the way to create platforms that will go to the masses in 2017-22;
- a start - up as a combination of a web service, a mobile client and hardware - amid the frustration of investors in social networks, interest shifts to something more tangible, and in the meantime, iron is easier to order and produce;
- 3D printing, home robotics (including under the influence of online courses) as examples of new classes of user devices that attract the attention of developers (and beginners are conveniently monetized);
- Another intensively growing scope of IT is medicine and health management , where increasing mobility and compactness means increasing the range of devices used by humans for self-administration (in addition to the traditional medical market);
- in the information systems themselves, which are now starting to process even more diverse data, their number is increasing in an avalanche-like manner and requires special solutions in terms of their processing - so-called. Big Data . This, apparently, will be the theme number 1 for "clean" ITshnikov, systems engineers,
- in the field of online education , as the author has already noted, there is a further accumulation of capacities and structuring, projects of “digital diplomas” appear (integration of the results of courses taken by the student from various providers), thanks to which online projects are gaining the weight necessary for the invasion of previously closed professions outside IT;
- at the same time, in terms of the IT professional structure, the spread of these technologies to iron, medicine and education, as well as the spread of IT education in the online format for the masses, means a further increase in the number of IT specialists - subject-matter specialists and industry specialists who have mastered IT profession ;
- in terms of IT demography , which the author has already touched on a bit, more and more not only Indians, but also, for example, Africans will appear on the global level. Domestic ITShnik will become a little older, mature and, what pleases, will achieve even greater popularity in the global market as a developer of complex, non-standard, extreme solutions. In general, the coming era of iron, monetization of DIY in spite of the corporate-consumer approach is our element, we will revive the Soviet practice of amateur work with soldering irons, technical education, open even more hackerspaces and start conquering the world :). It is only a matter of time.
In terms of employment forms , it seems that the boundaries between freelancing and corporate will blur slightly, freelancing will go to some previously difficult for him niches as career management and education will increasingly be based on simple, easily accessible online profiles on social networks and new specialized services, including certification of this data. Among startups, which is already noticeable now, some structuring occurs, they are classified according to the degree of radical innovation, economic effect, estimated payback periods, etc. - the saying about Apollo and Angry Birds has already been heard by everyone and more and more people realize that entertainment is their market potential is not the only useful IT application for humanity. Farsighted venture investors are emerging who, instead of guaranteeing quick monetization for ideological reasons, are investing in more fundamental technologies (what I call “supervenchur,” Peter Thil, for example).
The economy as a whole, under the influence of IT, demonstrates the crises of old industries and the rise of new ones, and often they are not even directly related to IT, but are a side effect of the totality of technical and social changes. The stronger the crisis, the more intense this process and the more post-crisis (or chronically-crisis) the world is qualitatively different from the pre-crisis. To remedy the effects of the crisis for a particular subject, at least a qualitative shift in understanding the role of education, professional and general development in a dynamically changing economy is necessary. ITshniki as a whole are at the forefront of this trend, they have got used to upgrade for a long time and therefore they respond constructively faster than inert capital and labor-intensive industries. A specific feature of the upcoming stage is the forced automation and robotization of production not only of high-tech products not only in developed countries, as we see in the example of Foxconn in China. This leads to some “reversal” (but not literal) of the usual process of driving out industry to developing countries. In addition, a number of purely "human" professions such as medical professionals, educational workers (who need IT as an even more user-friendly device and services of the apple type) are becoming relevant.
You could also add about IT and energy-saving, "green" technologies , but here everything is somehow dull. In general, these technologies are in the general trend of shifting accents to iron and reducing the cost of its development, in 5 years they will most likely come out of anti-HYIP and we will see many solutions, good and different. For IT, energy efficiency is primarily a further increase in mobility and scalability. What can bring both a breakthrough in supercomputers, and new even more compact and economical applications of iron up to implants, sensors, microrobots, etc. This is already a matter of technology, terms vary; our task is to identify a general trend: energy is interesting and relevant.
The copywriters will most likely continue to rage even more furiously, but as the alternative models of monetization, in particular crowdfunding, mature, their prestige in society will drop even more, and the pirates will strengthen their political positions. Compared to them, patent rolls are in a more advantageous position, since they often run into corporations for which society has no particular sympathy. However, concern about the destructive impact of patent-trolling on the pace of innovation is likely to push many to revise patent laws.
Politicians will continue to attempt to regulate the Network, as well as limit the spread of some new hardware technologies, such as glasses with hidden cameras, or use them to the detriment of society, such as the Saudi project to track women. However, they have not achieved much success in this. Even the VKF will shake as the number of competent users interested in unfiltered content grows. The reason is that the driver of these changes is society itself. Censorship in the long term does not work and can not work. In some countries, during this period, technology will undoubtedly help society achieve significant changes in political power; and I will deliberately leave open the questions “who?”, “where?” and “when?”, noting only that IT is only a lever that multiplies society’s efforts to achieve the desired changes, which depends on many hidden factors, therefore accurate forecasts here are inappropriate. But the vector is clear, and this is an objective historical process: technology helps society evolve. This should be perceived adequately and be prepared for this, as well as a reflection of the political tendencies mentioned, which will clearly become even angrier and more sophisticated.
Science and IT are spliced in more and more unexpected ways. Historically, IT has emerged from “big science”, but today we are seeing phenomena when amateur users combine via the Internet either for distributed computing, or for “human” processing of some kind of hard-to-recognize data (a classification of galaxies), or to search for “human” solutions of scientific problems instead of stupid enumeration (folding of proteins, design of RNA), which is often most effective in the form of a game (in the general trend of gamification of everything and everyone, which has now become boring, and apparently has entered the period of public disappointments, but real achievements are still ahead). How can you try to monetize these and other examples of open science, DIY-science for 5 years? Most likely today they are similar to Linux or Wikipedia, that is, the prospects for commercialization are very vague, but these trends can become a platform on which some derivative, applied solutions will grow tomorrow, and now they will attract money and form new directions of development IT and other technologies are similar to the Homebrew Computer Club itself and other hacker initiatives of the last century, the authors of which very seldom thought about money.
Finally, “pure IT” or Computer Science frontier in the context of all this movement. There has already been said many times and more than once - clouds, big data, high loads, high performance computing, AI, machine learning and other topics of the same online courses. The general evolution is, as it were, visible, but qualitative phenomena are interesting. For example, DDoS, which has recently become almost an ordinary means of competition and has in fact formed a whole industry of protection against it. All due to the fact that the Internet has moved "normal" business with its own characteristics of work.
— «» - ( « ») — . , , . . , . . « » — . , , . «» «» . . , . , , . , , , , , . . , -DDoS.
In conclusion, I slightly paraphrase the beginning of the author's post.
When I started working with a PC in 1993, I had no idea that this would become my profession.
When I got acquainted with Windows exactly 14 years ago and realized that IT is mine, I did not even hear about the laws of Moore and Metcalf and poorly understood the essence of accelerating progress in this area.
1999 , , - , , - , , , , ( 2010), , , , - !
00- - , , , - - …
... and now I don’t want to quote Socrates once again, but rather to extract the maximum practical benefit from his position, not only in the form of modest or not so much earnings and victorious “aha, I told you. that it will be so! ”, but also in the form, so to speak, of regular dents in the Universe :).
Many thanks to the author of the original post for inspiration and let your brain not become scanty for fresh ideas!
Comments and additions are welcome :)
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/160649/
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