Natural death monopolies
I know a lot, I will see the fate of the mighty glorious gods
The two most famous in the IT business monopoly - Intel and Microsoft came close to the edge. After a couple of years, we will begin to observe the exciting sight of their fall into the abyss.
Most likely, they will not disappear from the face of the Earth, however, they will no longer play the role of absolute leaders in the field of operating systems and processors for consumer computers and servers. In just five to seven years Wintel platform (Windows on Intel) will not be perceived as absolutely dominant in its field, but as a textbook example of the inability of monopolies to adapt to new realities in a rapidly changing world.
About seven years ago, a quiet and almost imperceptible revolution occurred in the world of processor developers. ARM has announced its new Cortex A8 processor. In the same year, ARM first entered the top ten most influential players in the global IT industry.
')
I began to understand the significance of what was happening only three years later, and it was only in the fall of 2009 that I first decided to make public my point of view. He was completely criticized and even ridiculed by some opponents - not at all the latest experts in our field. Two and a half years later, even my most ardent opponents already admit the possibility of such a development of events.
There are several obvious trends in the development of consumer markets for processors. Interestingly, all of them are suited to explosive growth in 2014. 2014 will be a year of great change, when the trend will become obvious to everyone and only a miracle can save Intel and Microsoft from the loss of its former greatness.
The first trend is the miniaturization of computing systems and the desire of users for ever greater mobility. I bought my first laptop somewhere in 2001. He was very hard (about 3 kilograms) and seriously inferior in performance to my desktop computer, he could live on a battery for no more than 2 hours. For five years I lived in parallel on two systems - one for work, the other for mail and the Internet on travel. In 2005, I gave up the desktop and started using only a laptop for all applications. It was not yet as productive as a desktop, but mobility was more expensive. Weight decreased to 2.4 kg, the life time on the battery increased to 3 hours. By 2010, my laptop lost in weight up to 2 kilograms, the battery life increased to 7 hours, the performance was equal to the desktop. In 2012, an upgrade for a model weighing one and a half kilograms and a lifetime of 10 hours is coming, performance will not suffer. I will never return to the desktops, although I will not stop using the external monitor and keyboard either. I think that this trend is not a secret for anyone.
The second trend is the development of the superphone smartphone market. I picked up my first smartphone in 2002. Oddly enough, it was a phone from Intel on the StrongARM processor (XScale). The name of the processor is clear - it was on the ARM core! It was a reference design, so it looked rather strange - gray, rough plastic, the size of a medium-size book, a pound weighing, batteries could not be placed inside the case, so they hung outside on the wires, display 320x240. I showed him to some of the journalists then, called him the phone of the future, they did not believe me :-). But from the point of view of the processor, it was a real smartphone - the PXA250 accelerated to 400 MHz and had almost full MMX instructions support. Intel management failed to see a quiet revolution (as I did at that time) and sold in the summer of 2006 their entire line of XScale to Marvell Technology Group. The current smartphones in terms of processor power have already come close to netbooks - a dual-core 1.5 Gigahertz processor with full HD video support, an external monitor, keyboard and audio system. In the past, CES (January 2011) a name was invented for them - a superphone, I don’t know if it will take root. The 2012 models will already be 4-core with a peak frequency of 2 GHz, a vector coprocessor and powerful graphics. And in 2013, smartphones with processors based on ARM Cortex A15, five-core, with a clock frequency of 2.5 gigahertz, are expected. In general, the trend is also understandable.
The third trend is a friendly user interface. I think that all IT specialists are familiar with the situation when their friends and relatives sing the same song - well, why do you, computer scientists, make such incomprehensible programs, it is absolutely impossible to figure out how to handle these computers of yours ...
And so it happened - the lamers breathed a sigh of relief, took the iPad in their hands, never to return to the study of computer literacy based on Windows. Very little time passed and a new wave of inexperienced PC users began to master the numerous pads, tabs and Kindles running on Android. I want to note that iOS (iPhone, iPod, iPad) is Unix Free BSD, Android is Linux, and the listed devices run on processors from various companies, but all are based on the AWS core. In short, all the normal ones from the point of view of inexperienced users of the system are built on the Linaro platform, and not on the Wintel platform. And nothing foretells change.
Trend Four - the number of developers specializing in programming the Linaro mobile platform is growing an order of magnitude faster than those employed in Wintel development. Three years ago, a programmer who knew iOS, was rare, today writing for various mobile platforms is almost the same as under Windows.
Trend five is the massive transition of processor developers to the ARM core. I will not bore readers with technical details, I will name only a few companies that make their processor on ARM: Texas Instruments, Samsung, Apple, NVidia, Freescale, Qualcomm, ST Micro, NXP, Marvell. Each of these companies is smaller than Intel, but all together - significantly more, and in addition, they all increase the production volumes of processors, and Intel is practically standing still. Last year, Qualcomm exceeded 14 billion in annual turnover and bypassed TI, becoming the second largest processor manufacturer in the world. Samsung, as of April 2011, released over 4 years 170 million processors for Apple I-Pods, pads, backgrounds.
All the listed trends have a tendency to significant growth in 2014. According to my estimates, in 2014, new computers (both PCs and devices replacing PCs) will be based on ARM-based processors in 20% of cases, and various * nix systems will be used as operating systems.
IDC analysts are not so categorical, last year their estimate was 15% and not by 2014, but by the 15th year. In my opinion, they simply overestimate the ability of Intel and Microsoft to adapt to new realities.
I want to make another reservation, it’s not just about servers, desktops and laptops, although ARM will take a few percent there too. We are mainly talking about those systems that will replace modern computers and laptops. Pads, tabs, superphones and other Kindles instead of laptops and desktops, gaming and multimedia set tops - to replace gaming PCs and home computers.
I think that the computer industry as a whole will not experience too much growth - mainly due to the younger generation. In place of those who do not own computers, comes a new generation that uses them. And, first of all, this generation will master new devices, not traditional PCs. As a result of a small growth in the market (~ 10%) and a loss of its substantial share (~ 20%), by the end of 2014, Intel and Microsoft will show a decline in sales for the first time in many years, perhaps even losses. But how this reduction will turn into a fall depends on how quickly and efficiently new manufacturers of processors and operating systems can agree on the standardization of approaches.
Many of my opponents ask: why do you think that Intel is not able to make a chip for mobile devices? And Microsoft is announcing the mobile version of Windows 8. The answer is simple - monopolies always lose on free markets. In the entire history of attempts to play in these markets, neither one nor the other company has achieved any success.
Intel began in 1997 with the purchase of StrongARM, and still invests heavily in the development of media processors series CE. The first known CE2100 was still on XScale, in 2005, then it was 3100 on the Pentium M in 2008, in 2009 it was announced the CE4100, on the Intel Atom. In 2012, 5100 will appear, again on the atom, but the same fate awaits it as its predecessors.
Microsoft entered the market with its Windows CE (Consumer Electronics) as early as 1996. The last, seventh version appeared in March 2011. Its other incarnation is called Windows Mobile, its fate is the same, despite a different name. The third incarnation appeared in 2010 under the name Windows Phone and has not yet died, but it also reveals itself. According to Gartner, by the end of 2011, WP occupied approximately 1.6% of the smartphone market and was in 6th place, passing even Samsung's badgephone ahead. Around there will remain.
What should they do? The answer is very simple - to stop being monopolies, to split into several independent companies. Some of them will die, and some will integrate into a competitive market, will occupy their 10% on it and, perhaps, sometime, it will grow to the level of a new monopoly. And then die, for the same reasons.
Such is the fate of all monopolies. And this, comrades-in-arms, fills us all with unspeakable bliss.
The two most famous in the IT business monopoly - Intel and Microsoft came close to the edge. After a couple of years, we will begin to observe the exciting sight of their fall into the abyss.
Most likely, they will not disappear from the face of the Earth, however, they will no longer play the role of absolute leaders in the field of operating systems and processors for consumer computers and servers. In just five to seven years Wintel platform (Windows on Intel) will not be perceived as absolutely dominant in its field, but as a textbook example of the inability of monopolies to adapt to new realities in a rapidly changing world.
About seven years ago, a quiet and almost imperceptible revolution occurred in the world of processor developers. ARM has announced its new Cortex A8 processor. In the same year, ARM first entered the top ten most influential players in the global IT industry.
')
I began to understand the significance of what was happening only three years later, and it was only in the fall of 2009 that I first decided to make public my point of view. He was completely criticized and even ridiculed by some opponents - not at all the latest experts in our field. Two and a half years later, even my most ardent opponents already admit the possibility of such a development of events.
There are several obvious trends in the development of consumer markets for processors. Interestingly, all of them are suited to explosive growth in 2014. 2014 will be a year of great change, when the trend will become obvious to everyone and only a miracle can save Intel and Microsoft from the loss of its former greatness.
The first trend is the miniaturization of computing systems and the desire of users for ever greater mobility. I bought my first laptop somewhere in 2001. He was very hard (about 3 kilograms) and seriously inferior in performance to my desktop computer, he could live on a battery for no more than 2 hours. For five years I lived in parallel on two systems - one for work, the other for mail and the Internet on travel. In 2005, I gave up the desktop and started using only a laptop for all applications. It was not yet as productive as a desktop, but mobility was more expensive. Weight decreased to 2.4 kg, the life time on the battery increased to 3 hours. By 2010, my laptop lost in weight up to 2 kilograms, the battery life increased to 7 hours, the performance was equal to the desktop. In 2012, an upgrade for a model weighing one and a half kilograms and a lifetime of 10 hours is coming, performance will not suffer. I will never return to the desktops, although I will not stop using the external monitor and keyboard either. I think that this trend is not a secret for anyone.
The second trend is the development of the superphone smartphone market. I picked up my first smartphone in 2002. Oddly enough, it was a phone from Intel on the StrongARM processor (XScale). The name of the processor is clear - it was on the ARM core! It was a reference design, so it looked rather strange - gray, rough plastic, the size of a medium-size book, a pound weighing, batteries could not be placed inside the case, so they hung outside on the wires, display 320x240. I showed him to some of the journalists then, called him the phone of the future, they did not believe me :-). But from the point of view of the processor, it was a real smartphone - the PXA250 accelerated to 400 MHz and had almost full MMX instructions support. Intel management failed to see a quiet revolution (as I did at that time) and sold in the summer of 2006 their entire line of XScale to Marvell Technology Group. The current smartphones in terms of processor power have already come close to netbooks - a dual-core 1.5 Gigahertz processor with full HD video support, an external monitor, keyboard and audio system. In the past, CES (January 2011) a name was invented for them - a superphone, I don’t know if it will take root. The 2012 models will already be 4-core with a peak frequency of 2 GHz, a vector coprocessor and powerful graphics. And in 2013, smartphones with processors based on ARM Cortex A15, five-core, with a clock frequency of 2.5 gigahertz, are expected. In general, the trend is also understandable.
The third trend is a friendly user interface. I think that all IT specialists are familiar with the situation when their friends and relatives sing the same song - well, why do you, computer scientists, make such incomprehensible programs, it is absolutely impossible to figure out how to handle these computers of yours ...
And so it happened - the lamers breathed a sigh of relief, took the iPad in their hands, never to return to the study of computer literacy based on Windows. Very little time passed and a new wave of inexperienced PC users began to master the numerous pads, tabs and Kindles running on Android. I want to note that iOS (iPhone, iPod, iPad) is Unix Free BSD, Android is Linux, and the listed devices run on processors from various companies, but all are based on the AWS core. In short, all the normal ones from the point of view of inexperienced users of the system are built on the Linaro platform, and not on the Wintel platform. And nothing foretells change.
Trend Four - the number of developers specializing in programming the Linaro mobile platform is growing an order of magnitude faster than those employed in Wintel development. Three years ago, a programmer who knew iOS, was rare, today writing for various mobile platforms is almost the same as under Windows.
Trend five is the massive transition of processor developers to the ARM core. I will not bore readers with technical details, I will name only a few companies that make their processor on ARM: Texas Instruments, Samsung, Apple, NVidia, Freescale, Qualcomm, ST Micro, NXP, Marvell. Each of these companies is smaller than Intel, but all together - significantly more, and in addition, they all increase the production volumes of processors, and Intel is practically standing still. Last year, Qualcomm exceeded 14 billion in annual turnover and bypassed TI, becoming the second largest processor manufacturer in the world. Samsung, as of April 2011, released over 4 years 170 million processors for Apple I-Pods, pads, backgrounds.
All the listed trends have a tendency to significant growth in 2014. According to my estimates, in 2014, new computers (both PCs and devices replacing PCs) will be based on ARM-based processors in 20% of cases, and various * nix systems will be used as operating systems.
IDC analysts are not so categorical, last year their estimate was 15% and not by 2014, but by the 15th year. In my opinion, they simply overestimate the ability of Intel and Microsoft to adapt to new realities.
I want to make another reservation, it’s not just about servers, desktops and laptops, although ARM will take a few percent there too. We are mainly talking about those systems that will replace modern computers and laptops. Pads, tabs, superphones and other Kindles instead of laptops and desktops, gaming and multimedia set tops - to replace gaming PCs and home computers.
I think that the computer industry as a whole will not experience too much growth - mainly due to the younger generation. In place of those who do not own computers, comes a new generation that uses them. And, first of all, this generation will master new devices, not traditional PCs. As a result of a small growth in the market (~ 10%) and a loss of its substantial share (~ 20%), by the end of 2014, Intel and Microsoft will show a decline in sales for the first time in many years, perhaps even losses. But how this reduction will turn into a fall depends on how quickly and efficiently new manufacturers of processors and operating systems can agree on the standardization of approaches.
Many of my opponents ask: why do you think that Intel is not able to make a chip for mobile devices? And Microsoft is announcing the mobile version of Windows 8. The answer is simple - monopolies always lose on free markets. In the entire history of attempts to play in these markets, neither one nor the other company has achieved any success.
Intel began in 1997 with the purchase of StrongARM, and still invests heavily in the development of media processors series CE. The first known CE2100 was still on XScale, in 2005, then it was 3100 on the Pentium M in 2008, in 2009 it was announced the CE4100, on the Intel Atom. In 2012, 5100 will appear, again on the atom, but the same fate awaits it as its predecessors.
Microsoft entered the market with its Windows CE (Consumer Electronics) as early as 1996. The last, seventh version appeared in March 2011. Its other incarnation is called Windows Mobile, its fate is the same, despite a different name. The third incarnation appeared in 2010 under the name Windows Phone and has not yet died, but it also reveals itself. According to Gartner, by the end of 2011, WP occupied approximately 1.6% of the smartphone market and was in 6th place, passing even Samsung's badgephone ahead. Around there will remain.
What should they do? The answer is very simple - to stop being monopolies, to split into several independent companies. Some of them will die, and some will integrate into a competitive market, will occupy their 10% on it and, perhaps, sometime, it will grow to the level of a new monopoly. And then die, for the same reasons.
Such is the fate of all monopolies. And this, comrades-in-arms, fills us all with unspeakable bliss.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/160607/
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