CIA uses game theory to predict the future

The CIA, the US Department of Defense and the largest Fortune 500 corporations are actively cooperating with futurologists. Of course, we are talking about a strictly scientific futurology, that is, a mathematical calculation of the objective probability of future events. The theory of games deals with this - one of the new areas of mathematical science, applicable to almost all areas of human life.



Perhaps the calculations of the future, which were previously conducted in strict secrecy for "elite" clients, will soon enter the commercially accessible market. At least, this is indicated by the fact that this week two large American magazines published articles on this topic ( 1 , 2 ), and both published an interview with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a professor at New York University. The professor owns a consulting firm that deals with computer calculations based on game theory. For twenty years of cooperation with the CIA, the scientist accurately calculated several important and unexpected events (for example, the coming of Andropov to power in the USSR and the seizure of Hong Kong by the Chinese). In total, he calculated more than a thousand events with an accuracy of more than 90%.



Now Bruce advises US intelligence agencies on policies in Iran. For example, his calculations show that the United States has no chance of preventing Iran from launching a nuclear reactor for civilian needs.

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via Boing Boing