The science of global climate modeling is confirmed by discoveries made on Mars
Scientific modeling methods that predict climate change on Earth have proven to be accurate on Mars. These are the results of research that on October 16, 2012, presented to the American Astronomical Society, an international group that includes employees of the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson (Arizona) and French scientists.
Age, location, features of the concentration of glacial deposits on Mars and other data on the Martian climate, accumulated over the years of observations, are in good agreement with the calculations obtained using the computer model of the global climate.
The research team was led by PSI Senior Researcher William K. Hartmann, Francois Forget from the University of Paris modeled the Martian climate, and Veronica Ansan and Nicolas Mangold from the University of Nantes together with Daniel Berman from PSI analyzed the glacier measurement data from spacecraft.
“Some public figures believe that modeling global climate change on Earth belongs to pseudoscience, but if climate models can explain the characteristics of observations on another planet, then these models are at least somewhat effective,” said Hartmann, who presented The report "The Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmed by Discoveries on Mars" at the annual meeting of the Planetary Sciences Division of the American Astronomical Society in Reno, Nevada.
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Scientists noted that both climate models that predicted the concentration of glaciers and calculated the age of the surface layers of ice in a certain area, and the radar data of ice scanning in the same area, gave consistent results - glaciers are formed in a particular region of Mars due to an unusual climatic circumstance, which climate model, has a global cause.
Back in 1993, astronomers analyzed changes in the inclination of the axis of rotation of Mars and found that occasionally the inclination of the axis of Mars could exceed 45 degrees. In this extreme state, the summer hemisphere is strongly tilted to the Sun and the ice of the South Pole of Mars evaporates, increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, thereby increasing the likelihood of snowfall in the dark, cold winter hemisphere. The last time a similar period was on Mars from 5 to 20 million years ago. In 2001–2006, French and American researchers used climate modeling computer programs to study this effect, which were originally developed to assess how a sharp increase in CO 2 and greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects climate and global warming. Planetary scientists simply entered data on the Martian relief, atmosphere, and gravity into the program in order to obtain the appropriate computer calculations for Mars. Their calculations showed a strong concentration of snow and ice in the winter in the middle latitudes of the southern region of Mars, east of the huge Martian basin of Hellas. At the same time, regardless of these studies, PSI scientists found an unusual concentration of ice in the 40-mile crater Greg, with a center in the same area. The analysis showed that the surface layers of the glacier were formed from 5 million to 20 million years ago, in the period predicted by the program for calculating climatic phenomena as extreme.
“The bottom line is that global climate models show that abundant deposits of ice were formed from 5 million to 15 million years ago. Almost all of them are concentrated in the crater of Greg. The same place and time provide orbital data, said Hartmann. - If global climate models show that a special concentration of ice is possible there and then, where and when we actually find them on a distant planet, then it is impossible to reject climate modeling methods sarcastically. The results of our study provide important information to refute attacks on scientific methods of climate modeling on our home planet. ”
Figure 1: Photo taken from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, shows glacier-shaped blades flowing along the northern inner wall of Greg crater on Mars. The wall is tilted to the south (pictured below). Notice how the streamlines formed folds around a small hill on the left side of the glacier.
Figure 2: A photo taken from the NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows the features of ice drift in the ancient riverbed on the southern wall of Greg's crater. (BUT). The hills at the bottom of the photo are cut by dry riverbeds flowing down to the north (in the photo above). Lighter in texture materials were transferred along the channel and accumulated at the bottom of the crater (above).
(B) On a close-up, there is a difference in the texture of the transportable material that forms the terraces when ice flows faster flowed in the center of the channel and more slowly along the channel walls.
Figure 3. The map of the mid-latitude of Mars, colored spots show the ice deposited places on Mars predicted by the climate modeling program during periods of extreme axial tilt. Red indicates extreme ice deposits. Crater Greg, where an unusually high concentration of glaciers is actually found, is a bright circle not far from the center of the ice deposition area in the lower right corner of the scheme.
Age, location, features of the concentration of glacial deposits on Mars and other data on the Martian climate, accumulated over the years of observations, are in good agreement with the calculations obtained using the computer model of the global climate.
The research team was led by PSI Senior Researcher William K. Hartmann, Francois Forget from the University of Paris modeled the Martian climate, and Veronica Ansan and Nicolas Mangold from the University of Nantes together with Daniel Berman from PSI analyzed the glacier measurement data from spacecraft.
“Some public figures believe that modeling global climate change on Earth belongs to pseudoscience, but if climate models can explain the characteristics of observations on another planet, then these models are at least somewhat effective,” said Hartmann, who presented The report "The Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmed by Discoveries on Mars" at the annual meeting of the Planetary Sciences Division of the American Astronomical Society in Reno, Nevada.
')
Scientists noted that both climate models that predicted the concentration of glaciers and calculated the age of the surface layers of ice in a certain area, and the radar data of ice scanning in the same area, gave consistent results - glaciers are formed in a particular region of Mars due to an unusual climatic circumstance, which climate model, has a global cause.
Back in 1993, astronomers analyzed changes in the inclination of the axis of rotation of Mars and found that occasionally the inclination of the axis of Mars could exceed 45 degrees. In this extreme state, the summer hemisphere is strongly tilted to the Sun and the ice of the South Pole of Mars evaporates, increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, thereby increasing the likelihood of snowfall in the dark, cold winter hemisphere. The last time a similar period was on Mars from 5 to 20 million years ago. In 2001–2006, French and American researchers used climate modeling computer programs to study this effect, which were originally developed to assess how a sharp increase in CO 2 and greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects climate and global warming. Planetary scientists simply entered data on the Martian relief, atmosphere, and gravity into the program in order to obtain the appropriate computer calculations for Mars. Their calculations showed a strong concentration of snow and ice in the winter in the middle latitudes of the southern region of Mars, east of the huge Martian basin of Hellas. At the same time, regardless of these studies, PSI scientists found an unusual concentration of ice in the 40-mile crater Greg, with a center in the same area. The analysis showed that the surface layers of the glacier were formed from 5 million to 20 million years ago, in the period predicted by the program for calculating climatic phenomena as extreme.
“The bottom line is that global climate models show that abundant deposits of ice were formed from 5 million to 15 million years ago. Almost all of them are concentrated in the crater of Greg. The same place and time provide orbital data, said Hartmann. - If global climate models show that a special concentration of ice is possible there and then, where and when we actually find them on a distant planet, then it is impossible to reject climate modeling methods sarcastically. The results of our study provide important information to refute attacks on scientific methods of climate modeling on our home planet. ”
Figure 1: Photo taken from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, shows glacier-shaped blades flowing along the northern inner wall of Greg crater on Mars. The wall is tilted to the south (pictured below). Notice how the streamlines formed folds around a small hill on the left side of the glacier.
Figure 2: A photo taken from the NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows the features of ice drift in the ancient riverbed on the southern wall of Greg's crater. (BUT). The hills at the bottom of the photo are cut by dry riverbeds flowing down to the north (in the photo above). Lighter in texture materials were transferred along the channel and accumulated at the bottom of the crater (above).
(B) On a close-up, there is a difference in the texture of the transportable material that forms the terraces when ice flows faster flowed in the center of the channel and more slowly along the channel walls.
Figure 3. The map of the mid-latitude of Mars, colored spots show the ice deposited places on Mars predicted by the climate modeling program during periods of extreme axial tilt. Red indicates extreme ice deposits. Crater Greg, where an unusually high concentration of glaciers is actually found, is a bright circle not far from the center of the ice deposition area in the lower right corner of the scheme.
Information about PSI
The Institute of Planetary Sciences is a private, non-profit organization dedicated to the study of the solar system. Headquartered in Tucson, Arizona, where it was founded in 1972. PSI scientists participate in numerous NASA missions and in international studies of Mars and other planets, the Moon, asteroids, comets, interplanetary dust, physical effects, the origin of the Solar System, the formation of planets outside the Solar System, dynamics and development of life, and other areas of research. They conduct field research in North America, Australia and Africa. They are also actively involved in science education and public education through school programs, children's books, popular science publications and the arts. PSI scientists are based in 18 states of the United States and the District of Columbia, as well as in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Latvia, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/156655/
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