Gartner: 10 defining technological trends for the next 5 years

This morning at Gartner Symposium IT Expo, analyst David Capuzzio ( David Cappuccio ) spoke about 10 defining trends and technologies that will affect the development of the IT market in the next 5 years.

Before announcing the list, Capuzzio shared his observations: according to statistics, 204 million emails were sent per minute, 61,000 hours of music were listened to, 20 million images were viewed on Pandora, 3 million photos were uploaded to Flickr, 100.00 tweets were written, made 6 million views and 277,000 Facebook entries, 2 million Google searches.

During his speech, David talks about topics that are very popular today: communication (nexus) of the “clouds”, a large amount of data, social and mobile areas.

• Organizational consolidation and violations
• Networks with specific software
• Big Data and Data Storage
• Hybrid Cloud Services
• Client and server architectures
• Internet of things
• Popularity of various IT equipment
• Operational difficulties
• Virtual data centers
• Demand for IT

In details:
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Organizational fixations and violations: by 2014, 30% of organizations using SaaS will return to on-premise software, due to the low level of service. Their decision will also be affected by high growth of the IT infrastructure, rapidly changing cycles, short development times, and reduced budgets. Today, everyone needs constant global IT-support, because IT-technologies are managed by end users who need access to iPad, iPhone or other smartphones and modern personal devices. It is also worth mentioning the “change of generations” - many workers are retiring, and new employees need a new set of skills.

Networks with specific software: a new way of operating networks in which control over networks is transferred to the OS. Management moves from individual personal devices to the central controller, which in turn allows you to create a network configuration in one place. “Think of it as network virtualization,” says Capuzzio. The location of the physical data center is no longer relevant, since a fully virtualized environment is created, and this, in turn, reduces the time required to provide new resources. The disadvantage, perhaps, is only the possibility of significant organizational failures.

Big Data and Data Storage: By 2015, the demand for large amounts of data will generate 1 million jobs in the Global 1000, but only a third will be filled due to lack of personnel. 30 - 60% data growth is possible depending on the organization. Auditing, archiving and recovery are becoming more complex. To solve the problem, you can use more modern software designed for analytics and pattern recognition. For example, the use of new specialized servers with ARM-processors for analytics makes it possible to get higher performance in a smaller area, with reduced power consumption. Capuzzio noted that 15% -20% of current servers do nothing at all.

Hybrid cloud services: consist of services from several providers and combine private and public clouds. "Use clouds as an extension." Gartner believes that private clouds will improve maneuverability and will dominate. People see clouds as a way to accelerate business growth, in particular, mobile applications. However, hybrid services will increase the power in general. David Capuzzio believes that "hybrid data centers are destined to be in our future." We also note that, despite the fact that the result may initially be a gradual increase in operating expenses, in the long term capital expenditures will be delayed.

Client and server architectures: Just as one shoe size is not suitable for everyone, one Operating System is not universal. Form factors are not static, and forced end-user standardization does not work in the end. People need to be given the opportunity to do what they want (of course, within reason). The problem is common in a number of cases: even if Windows 8 is in your organization, it will not be a full-fledged replacement for Windows 7 or XP, or what you are using now. An office on some tablets also does not make sense and will not be effective if you, of course, are not a fan of typing on glass. There are a number of applications that are not optimized to work on a laptop. However, users were forced to first get used to wireless networks and instant messaging, and now they are trying to do the same with tablets and smartphones. You have to decide what to do with the office: “Days of monolithic kits are a thing of the past.”

Internet of Things: Small, low-cost devices, radio and GPS capabilities, self-organized networks, location determination — all this creates a “permanent society.” All of these things have an IP address and can be tracked. The newest cars and even street lights are currently connected to some networks. The Internet of Things is a global infrastructure that unites physical and virtual objects connected via the Internet and allows you to find out the necessary information about them. The concept is developed by all sorts of technologies: embedded sensors, pattern recognition, augmented reality ... The result is situational support in decision-making, the development of asset management, greater transparency. Already, many business opportunities are currently associated with the “Internet of Things”.

Popularity of various IT equipment: point solutions that are easy to deploy, have an embedded OS and are blocked from the environment. They contribute to the complexity of the issue. We are seeing an increasing number of virtual instruments, which, again, add complexity. Some devices are specifically designed for specific workloads and can sometimes fall into a stupor with all firmware. For example: inventory monitoring and security control - they are easy to install, and you can easily forget about them.

Operational difficulties: By 2014, employee devices will be compromised by malware, twice the number of corporate devices. For every 25% increase in system functionality, there is a 100% increase in complexity. For example: The Cisco 6500 Switch has 2390 pages in the installation instructions (with reference information), the Oracle 10g database has 1677 parameters, and Exchange has 115 performance and capacity settings on VMware.

Virtual data centers: The ratio of virtual and physical servers is currently about 11: 1. Virtualization creates low-cost resources and quickly distributes them across workloads (resources can be distributed between data processing centers and geographic regions). The novelty is focused on the distribution of certain workloads, rather than focusing on physical servers. There is a segmentation of the load and new applications. Workloads and questions are no longer limited to known environmental data. It becomes possible to improve the quality of staff, as well as retain employees - just give them more work! Cloud services and hybrid environments increase interest in supporting this issue.

Demand for IT: By 2017, 40% of the company's contact information will be uploaded to Facebook via employees' mobile devices. The load on the server increases by about 10% per year, and the demand for increasing network bandwidth by 35%. Storage capacity by 50%, cost increase power, 20%. Creating new opportunities, focusing only on demand, ceases to be possible. It is necessary to optimize the potential in a new way: virtualization, data deduplication, etc. More than 1.5 billion web pages, 450,000 applications for the iPhone, more than 200,000 applications for Android, 10,500 radio stations, and 5,500 magazines are now available. All this and controls the growing demand for IT.

Gartner recommendations:

• Prepare for operational failures generated by both external and internal factors.
• Software-enabled networks are coming - get the skills you need right now.
• Hybrid cloud services are growing very fast.
• The Internet of Things will soon start to dominate - be prepared.

Do you agree with this forecast? Maybe you have something to add?