Russian version of Developer Economics 2012
From the publishers : Friends, we present you the Russian edition of the magnificent study of Developer Economics 2012. In the spring, as regional representatives, we gathered developers to Habré to represent Russia in this study and want to thank everyone who took part in it - Russian developers have become the third force in the world, after China and the USA. We have prepared a Russian translation of this study and hope that it will be useful to you in your work. Thank!
Developer Economics 2012 is the third annual report in the series that sets standards in developer research. This report plunges into the ecosystem of applications, passing through the segmentation of developers, the economics of platforms and global trade routes of applications.
')
Developer Economics 2012 focuses on why developers make one choice or another, rather than just presenting bare facts and figures. The researchers combined empirical knowledge and quantitative data of 1500+ developers in order to determine the exact segmentation model, a powerful tool for targeting players in the economics of applications.
The authors interviewed developers about the cost and profitability of their work to understand the economics of platforms and to provide an authoritative view that goes beyond rumors and anecdotal facts. And also looked at the ways that developers promote and sell their applications and what difficulties they face along the way.
Finally, the developers were asked the question “what will happen next in the economy of applications?” - so the report’s creators installed a map of global trade routes, analyzed demand in regions and world markets and realized where the next 10 million mobile applications will appear.
The study is based on an online survey of 1500+ developers from different countries, as well as 20 full interviews. Study participants were all over the world and included developers not only from North America, Europe and Asia, but from Africa, Oceania and Latin America.
This report will provide you with key ideas on current trends in development and the ways in which the mobile economy is still shaping around the phenomenon of applications.
We hope that you will enjoy the report - no less than the one we received from its creation!
The fittest survived for 12 months. While 2011 was a year of developer experimentation, 2012 was the era of ecosystem consolidation around iOS and Android. The attention of developers to these systems reached a record for the entire time of observation - 76% for Android and 66% for iOS. The Darwinian 'survival of the fittest' theory explains how BlackBerry, BREW and Bada (Samsung) lost the attention of developers, being unable to compete in terms of user reach, which is the main indicator of choosing a platform for developers. In 2012, developers on average used 2.7 platforms simultaneously, versus 3.2 in 2011 - a clear sign of consolidation. The trend is confirmed by the declining rate of IntentShare for most platforms - besides mobile web and Windows Phone.
Tablets are now leading devices for developers. Developers quickly responded to the growing popularity of tablets: our study of Developer Economics 2012 found that, regardless of the platform, more than 50% of developers are now focused on tablets, and iOS developers are likely to work with them (74%). This is a significant increase compared to last year, when only a third of developers (34.5%) focused on tablets. At the other end of the spectrum are TV and game consoles with less than 10% of developers targeting these devices.
Mobile Web has moved from the discussion stage to reality. Mobile Web is third in the Platform Mindshare Index, 53% of developers use it. However, it has somewhat lost its position compared to last year, having lost three percentage points in the attention of developers. With the advent of the mobile web into our lives, developers are beginning to realize that it is still far from the utopia that we were promised. Developers are faced with three problems: fragmentation, limited speed and the lack of distribution and monetization channels.
Facebook has become a new web. Facebook put together pieces of the puzzle and became a “platform of platforms” - above iOS, Android and mobile web - forcing mobile developers to publish, promote, distribute and receive money through Facebook, regardless of the platform. For mobile web developers, Facebook offers a global market, distribution and a target audience of 900 million active users, along with direct calculations. These are the features that mobile web developers need most. With the social network's user base approaching 50% of the global Internet audience (2.3 billion users), Facebook is quickly becoming a new web.
Windows Phone is a new cool. While Windows Phone sales continue to disappoint, 2.6 million devices were sold in Q1 2012, developers' interest in the platform continues to grow. Our survey of 1,500 developers showed that regardless of the platform they are currently using, most developers (57%) plan to accept Windows Phone. At the same time, last year’s Intentshare rate of 32% for Windows Phone increased by only 1% this year, which tells us that converting intentions into adoption is not an obvious process. Windows Phone is actually a new interesting platform that has received an increased level of attention and expectations of developers, but in order to convert attention into working developers at the iOS and Android level, real acceptance should soon happen or fall will follow.
Mass outcome from the second line of platforms. BREW (Qualcomm) in a deadly peak - the speed at which developers leave BREW scares. 60% of developers currently working with BREW say they are going to stop using it. Bada (Samsung) will be rejected by 49% of the developers currently employed at it, the result of a duopoly of small shipments (a total of 20 million devices) and platform immaturity. BlackBerry (RIM) is close to extinction, 41% of developers plan to leave it - even worse, 14% of those who use it as the main platform plan to leave the ship. And it does not seem that the RIM acquirer will invest in the rescue of the BB platform. Developers' exodus is a much better and more measurable sunset indicator of BREW, Bada and BlackBerry than any other market indicators.
Reaching users is the main criterion when choosing a platform. In our survey of 1,500+ developers, a large installation base of devices is still valued most when choosing a platform, for which 54% of developers speak out, regardless of the main platform, while 43% speak about low development costs. On the other hand, only 30% of developers choose a platform based on potential revenue. Reaching users, eyes or wallets is the main reason for choosing a platform. After the application reaches a wide audience, ad impressions, paid downloads, subscriptions, and deals are already attached to it.
Unraveling the "Tower of Babel" mobile marketing. Millions and millions of dollars are spent on attracting developers, and not only mobile firms, but also companies engaged in ordinary business. Enterprises are fighting for developer innovations, ignoring the fact that there are more than one million mobile application publishers in the market, developers of all shapes and sizes. We presented a quantitative segmentation model that answers the question of how to convince developers to adopt tools, a platform or an API based on their motivation to bring valuable resources to the platform. The eight developer segments in this model are Fans, Researchers, Hunters, Mercenaries, Expanders, Digital Media Publishers, Gold Miners and Corporate IT Developers.
Every third developer lives below the profitability trait. Based on our survey of 1,500+ developers, we realized that the average profit per application is between 1,200 and 3,900 dollars per month, depending on the platform. This means that every third developer lives below the “application poverty line”, that is, he cannot rely on applications as the only source of income. In terms of profit, 14% of developers receive from 500 to 1000 dollars from the application, and 13% receive from 1001 to 5000 dollars from the application per month.
BlackBerry is in the lead in terms of average profit with $ 3,900 per month from the app, followed by iOS. BlackBerry developers generate an average of 4% more profit per application than iOS developers, who, in turn, overtake those who work on Android by 35%. iOS overtakes Android thanks to a good audience (Apple users look less at prices), excellent content (higher ratio of paid and free apps), dominance in the tablet market (where the price of apps is more) and trouble-free payment (400 million accounts with one click) .
Applications for iOS are the most expensive in development with a price of $ 27,000 per application. Apple iOS is the most expensive platform, with an average cost of developing a single application exceeding $ 27,000, a platform is 21% more expensive than Android and 81% more expensive than a BlackBerry. The average application takes about three man-months to develop. Naturally, the cost of developing applications depends on the country and category - for example, for iOS faster than for Android, to develop applications for communication and social interaction.
Expenses for the production of applications are hidden behind the code. The user experience framework is so high that it takes about 25% of the budget to create a user interface, including design and storyboards. Routine maintenance costs 10% of the development cost per year. According to our estimates, on average, another 10% of the total production cost is spent on marketing, although it can easily consume half of the total cost for large software companies.
The decline of telecommunications distribution. Operator portals saw a decrease in user interest by 47% and serve as the main distribution channel for only 3% of developers. These are the same portals that dominated the distribution of content in the pre-Apple-era of downloading ringtones, wallpapers and Java applications. There is one exception: taking advantage of the lack of Google Play in China, the China Mobile app store serves 22% of its subscribers and delivers 600 million downloads, according to IHS Screen Digest.
Breaking through the problem of discovery. Application marketing today takes many forms, from promo in social networks to professional PR services. Facebook is undoubtedly the most popular promotion channel for developers, with an average of 47% of developers using all platforms. Facebook said it sent over 160 million visitors to mobile app pages in March 2012 alone. Along with app stores, Facebook acts as the only global distribution channel.
Developers struggle with user engagement and targeting. Users in our Developer Economics 2012 point out two important marketing issues. Maintaining user retention is generally referred to as a primary concern (39%). This is consistent with data from the analyst firm Flurry, which suggests that user retention drops sharply over time - only 24% of consumers continue to use the application three months after downloading. The second most frequently mentioned task is targeting and getting the right users - basically this problem arises from the fact that existing app stores offer minimal features in terms of user targeting.
Developers are struggling to determine the right profit model. Developers are increasingly confused (36%) with what model of getting money to use. There are 11 revenue models to choose from, ranging from pay per download to product placement. In-app purchases took the lead of other models in terms of monthly profit and profit per application, bringing an average of 24% more profit than pay per download, 63% more than freemium and 78% more than advertising, regardless of platform.
Problems after launch. Tracking crashes and errors is by far the most frequently cited developer’s headache after the release of the application — 38% of the developers in our study say this - and especially for WP7 developers. There is no direct channel of communication between users and developers, and there is no ready-made solution for tracking application performance. Testimonials about the app work and feel more like post-mortem notes, and not a live feedback tool. As a result, developers understand what is wrong with their application too late, through negative feedback.
The following 10 million applications. The next 10 million applications will not appear in the leading markets now, but as the need of BRIC countries for localized applications. North America leads in demand for applications from 41% of developers pointing to it as the Top-3 region in the number of downloads, regardless of the country of origin of the developers themselves. Europe got a share of 31%, and the next region where developers see the largest number of downloads is Asia from 25%. The growth in application consumption in each country is due to three factors: the increasing penetration rate of smartphones, the increased level of user engagement, and the general address market of subscribers with smartphones in the country. Although the growth of many Western markets is due to these factors, BRIC markets will show an increase in demand by an order of magnitude due to increased smartphone penetration.
Imbalance between native language and application language. A shortage of applications in local languages ​​can be seen by comparing the languages ​​spoken in the world with the languages ​​that developers use when releasing applications: 85% of developers publish applications in English, targeting only 8% (about 500 million) of the world’s population speaking in English, while Chinese, which is spoken by 22% of the world's population, attracts only 16% of developers. English dominates among developers everywhere, pushing local languages ​​into the background not only on a global but also on a regional scale. Developers in Europe publish an average of 2.45 languages, which is the largest indicator of the use of languages ​​in the world. In South America, 84% of developers use Spanish, while only 48% use English.
Display of world trade ways of applications. Application export varies in each region. Developers in North America see relatively small demand from other regions, Europe is their main export region (for 22% of developers in North America), but it is not far from Asia (17%). Latin America and Asia have a large share of developers (44% and 38%) who do not see much demand in local markets - developers mainly export applications to North America and Europe, where demand for applications, and paid applications in particular, are currently much higher. However, we expect local demand in Latin America and Asia to grow rapidly due to the increasing penetration of smartphones and the quality of applications. We believe that most of the next 10 million applications will be produced and consumed in these markets.
New pyramid competition phone manufacturers. In the new competition pyramid, Apple leads innovators, Samsung leads fast followers, ZTE is in charge of assemblers, and Nokia leads the market of simple phones. Apple captured nearly three-quarters of industry profits, providing unique product features and tight integration of hardware, software, services, and design. Samsung ranks second in profit in the industry. As a quick follower, his recipe for success in the primary market take-over with every new release of Android. The company produces its own chipsets and screens - the two most expensive components in the iron stack - and this provides it with a profit and a primary entry into the market with new components.
Increasing the value of its brand , Apple gained 33% of the total value of the brands of phone manufacturers in 2011, while Nokia lost 15% of its brand value between 2011 and 2012, which was the biggest drop among the hundreds of leading brands according to Interbrand.
There is less oxygen in the room. In Q1 2012, Apple received the lion's share of the profits. However, the largest share of the phone market does not belong to Apple, Nokia or Samsung, but to “other” manufacturers: hundreds of manufacturers produce hundreds of millions of devices that are sold in the developing world. The so-called “shanzai” manufacturers and other assemblers receive very small profits from each unit and are practically not profitable. And they destroy the market for other manufacturers, depriving them of the necessary oxygen, i.e. arrived.
The entire report in PDF can be found on our website . Unfortunately, under the terms of our agreement with VisionMobile, we can not publish it outside our site.
If you have comments, changes in the text or you find an error: press@apps4all.ru.
Developer Economics 2012 is the third annual report in the series that sets standards in developer research. This report plunges into the ecosystem of applications, passing through the segmentation of developers, the economics of platforms and global trade routes of applications.
')
Developer Economics 2012 focuses on why developers make one choice or another, rather than just presenting bare facts and figures. The researchers combined empirical knowledge and quantitative data of 1500+ developers in order to determine the exact segmentation model, a powerful tool for targeting players in the economics of applications.
The authors interviewed developers about the cost and profitability of their work to understand the economics of platforms and to provide an authoritative view that goes beyond rumors and anecdotal facts. And also looked at the ways that developers promote and sell their applications and what difficulties they face along the way.
Finally, the developers were asked the question “what will happen next in the economy of applications?” - so the report’s creators installed a map of global trade routes, analyzed demand in regions and world markets and realized where the next 10 million mobile applications will appear.
The study is based on an online survey of 1500+ developers from different countries, as well as 20 full interviews. Study participants were all over the world and included developers not only from North America, Europe and Asia, but from Africa, Oceania and Latin America.
This report will provide you with key ideas on current trends in development and the ways in which the mobile economy is still shaping around the phenomenon of applications.
We hope that you will enjoy the report - no less than the one we received from its creation!
Basic Theses
New digital ecosystem landscape
The fittest survived for 12 months. While 2011 was a year of developer experimentation, 2012 was the era of ecosystem consolidation around iOS and Android. The attention of developers to these systems reached a record for the entire time of observation - 76% for Android and 66% for iOS. The Darwinian 'survival of the fittest' theory explains how BlackBerry, BREW and Bada (Samsung) lost the attention of developers, being unable to compete in terms of user reach, which is the main indicator of choosing a platform for developers. In 2012, developers on average used 2.7 platforms simultaneously, versus 3.2 in 2011 - a clear sign of consolidation. The trend is confirmed by the declining rate of IntentShare for most platforms - besides mobile web and Windows Phone.
Tablets are now leading devices for developers. Developers quickly responded to the growing popularity of tablets: our study of Developer Economics 2012 found that, regardless of the platform, more than 50% of developers are now focused on tablets, and iOS developers are likely to work with them (74%). This is a significant increase compared to last year, when only a third of developers (34.5%) focused on tablets. At the other end of the spectrum are TV and game consoles with less than 10% of developers targeting these devices.
Mobile Web has moved from the discussion stage to reality. Mobile Web is third in the Platform Mindshare Index, 53% of developers use it. However, it has somewhat lost its position compared to last year, having lost three percentage points in the attention of developers. With the advent of the mobile web into our lives, developers are beginning to realize that it is still far from the utopia that we were promised. Developers are faced with three problems: fragmentation, limited speed and the lack of distribution and monetization channels.
Facebook has become a new web. Facebook put together pieces of the puzzle and became a “platform of platforms” - above iOS, Android and mobile web - forcing mobile developers to publish, promote, distribute and receive money through Facebook, regardless of the platform. For mobile web developers, Facebook offers a global market, distribution and a target audience of 900 million active users, along with direct calculations. These are the features that mobile web developers need most. With the social network's user base approaching 50% of the global Internet audience (2.3 billion users), Facebook is quickly becoming a new web.
Windows Phone is a new cool. While Windows Phone sales continue to disappoint, 2.6 million devices were sold in Q1 2012, developers' interest in the platform continues to grow. Our survey of 1,500 developers showed that regardless of the platform they are currently using, most developers (57%) plan to accept Windows Phone. At the same time, last year’s Intentshare rate of 32% for Windows Phone increased by only 1% this year, which tells us that converting intentions into adoption is not an obvious process. Windows Phone is actually a new interesting platform that has received an increased level of attention and expectations of developers, but in order to convert attention into working developers at the iOS and Android level, real acceptance should soon happen or fall will follow.
Mass outcome from the second line of platforms. BREW (Qualcomm) in a deadly peak - the speed at which developers leave BREW scares. 60% of developers currently working with BREW say they are going to stop using it. Bada (Samsung) will be rejected by 49% of the developers currently employed at it, the result of a duopoly of small shipments (a total of 20 million devices) and platform immaturity. BlackBerry (RIM) is close to extinction, 41% of developers plan to leave it - even worse, 14% of those who use it as the main platform plan to leave the ship. And it does not seem that the RIM acquirer will invest in the rescue of the BB platform. Developers' exodus is a much better and more measurable sunset indicator of BREW, Bada and BlackBerry than any other market indicators.
Reaching users is the main criterion when choosing a platform. In our survey of 1,500+ developers, a large installation base of devices is still valued most when choosing a platform, for which 54% of developers speak out, regardless of the main platform, while 43% speak about low development costs. On the other hand, only 30% of developers choose a platform based on potential revenue. Reaching users, eyes or wallets is the main reason for choosing a platform. After the application reaches a wide audience, ad impressions, paid downloads, subscriptions, and deals are already attached to it.
Unraveling the "Tower of Babel" mobile marketing. Millions and millions of dollars are spent on attracting developers, and not only mobile firms, but also companies engaged in ordinary business. Enterprises are fighting for developer innovations, ignoring the fact that there are more than one million mobile application publishers in the market, developers of all shapes and sizes. We presented a quantitative segmentation model that answers the question of how to convince developers to adopt tools, a platform or an API based on their motivation to bring valuable resources to the platform. The eight developer segments in this model are Fans, Researchers, Hunters, Mercenaries, Expanders, Digital Media Publishers, Gold Miners and Corporate IT Developers.
Revenues and expenses in the economy of applications
Every third developer lives below the profitability trait. Based on our survey of 1,500+ developers, we realized that the average profit per application is between 1,200 and 3,900 dollars per month, depending on the platform. This means that every third developer lives below the “application poverty line”, that is, he cannot rely on applications as the only source of income. In terms of profit, 14% of developers receive from 500 to 1000 dollars from the application, and 13% receive from 1001 to 5000 dollars from the application per month.
BlackBerry is in the lead in terms of average profit with $ 3,900 per month from the app, followed by iOS. BlackBerry developers generate an average of 4% more profit per application than iOS developers, who, in turn, overtake those who work on Android by 35%. iOS overtakes Android thanks to a good audience (Apple users look less at prices), excellent content (higher ratio of paid and free apps), dominance in the tablet market (where the price of apps is more) and trouble-free payment (400 million accounts with one click) .
Applications for iOS are the most expensive in development with a price of $ 27,000 per application. Apple iOS is the most expensive platform, with an average cost of developing a single application exceeding $ 27,000, a platform is 21% more expensive than Android and 81% more expensive than a BlackBerry. The average application takes about three man-months to develop. Naturally, the cost of developing applications depends on the country and category - for example, for iOS faster than for Android, to develop applications for communication and social interaction.
Expenses for the production of applications are hidden behind the code. The user experience framework is so high that it takes about 25% of the budget to create a user interface, including design and storyboards. Routine maintenance costs 10% of the development cost per year. According to our estimates, on average, another 10% of the total production cost is spent on marketing, although it can easily consume half of the total cost for large software companies.
In search of the promised land
The decline of telecommunications distribution. Operator portals saw a decrease in user interest by 47% and serve as the main distribution channel for only 3% of developers. These are the same portals that dominated the distribution of content in the pre-Apple-era of downloading ringtones, wallpapers and Java applications. There is one exception: taking advantage of the lack of Google Play in China, the China Mobile app store serves 22% of its subscribers and delivers 600 million downloads, according to IHS Screen Digest.
Breaking through the problem of discovery. Application marketing today takes many forms, from promo in social networks to professional PR services. Facebook is undoubtedly the most popular promotion channel for developers, with an average of 47% of developers using all platforms. Facebook said it sent over 160 million visitors to mobile app pages in March 2012 alone. Along with app stores, Facebook acts as the only global distribution channel.
Developers struggle with user engagement and targeting. Users in our Developer Economics 2012 point out two important marketing issues. Maintaining user retention is generally referred to as a primary concern (39%). This is consistent with data from the analyst firm Flurry, which suggests that user retention drops sharply over time - only 24% of consumers continue to use the application three months after downloading. The second most frequently mentioned task is targeting and getting the right users - basically this problem arises from the fact that existing app stores offer minimal features in terms of user targeting.
Developers are struggling to determine the right profit model. Developers are increasingly confused (36%) with what model of getting money to use. There are 11 revenue models to choose from, ranging from pay per download to product placement. In-app purchases took the lead of other models in terms of monthly profit and profit per application, bringing an average of 24% more profit than pay per download, 63% more than freemium and 78% more than advertising, regardless of platform.
Problems after launch. Tracking crashes and errors is by far the most frequently cited developer’s headache after the release of the application — 38% of the developers in our study say this - and especially for WP7 developers. There is no direct channel of communication between users and developers, and there is no ready-made solution for tracking application performance. Testimonials about the app work and feel more like post-mortem notes, and not a live feedback tool. As a result, developers understand what is wrong with their application too late, through negative feedback.
Regional and global demand for applications
The following 10 million applications. The next 10 million applications will not appear in the leading markets now, but as the need of BRIC countries for localized applications. North America leads in demand for applications from 41% of developers pointing to it as the Top-3 region in the number of downloads, regardless of the country of origin of the developers themselves. Europe got a share of 31%, and the next region where developers see the largest number of downloads is Asia from 25%. The growth in application consumption in each country is due to three factors: the increasing penetration rate of smartphones, the increased level of user engagement, and the general address market of subscribers with smartphones in the country. Although the growth of many Western markets is due to these factors, BRIC markets will show an increase in demand by an order of magnitude due to increased smartphone penetration.
Imbalance between native language and application language. A shortage of applications in local languages ​​can be seen by comparing the languages ​​spoken in the world with the languages ​​that developers use when releasing applications: 85% of developers publish applications in English, targeting only 8% (about 500 million) of the world’s population speaking in English, while Chinese, which is spoken by 22% of the world's population, attracts only 16% of developers. English dominates among developers everywhere, pushing local languages ​​into the background not only on a global but also on a regional scale. Developers in Europe publish an average of 2.45 languages, which is the largest indicator of the use of languages ​​in the world. In South America, 84% of developers use Spanish, while only 48% use English.
Display of world trade ways of applications. Application export varies in each region. Developers in North America see relatively small demand from other regions, Europe is their main export region (for 22% of developers in North America), but it is not far from Asia (17%). Latin America and Asia have a large share of developers (44% and 38%) who do not see much demand in local markets - developers mainly export applications to North America and Europe, where demand for applications, and paid applications in particular, are currently much higher. However, we expect local demand in Latin America and Asia to grow rapidly due to the increasing penetration of smartphones and the quality of applications. We believe that most of the next 10 million applications will be produced and consumed in these markets.
Redefining the competitive framework in mobile phones
New pyramid competition phone manufacturers. In the new competition pyramid, Apple leads innovators, Samsung leads fast followers, ZTE is in charge of assemblers, and Nokia leads the market of simple phones. Apple captured nearly three-quarters of industry profits, providing unique product features and tight integration of hardware, software, services, and design. Samsung ranks second in profit in the industry. As a quick follower, his recipe for success in the primary market take-over with every new release of Android. The company produces its own chipsets and screens - the two most expensive components in the iron stack - and this provides it with a profit and a primary entry into the market with new components.
Increasing the value of its brand , Apple gained 33% of the total value of the brands of phone manufacturers in 2011, while Nokia lost 15% of its brand value between 2011 and 2012, which was the biggest drop among the hundreds of leading brands according to Interbrand.
There is less oxygen in the room. In Q1 2012, Apple received the lion's share of the profits. However, the largest share of the phone market does not belong to Apple, Nokia or Samsung, but to “other” manufacturers: hundreds of manufacturers produce hundreds of millions of devices that are sold in the developing world. The so-called “shanzai” manufacturers and other assemblers receive very small profits from each unit and are practically not profitable. And they destroy the market for other manufacturers, depriving them of the necessary oxygen, i.e. arrived.
The entire report in PDF can be found on our website . Unfortunately, under the terms of our agreement with VisionMobile, we can not publish it outside our site.
If you have comments, changes in the text or you find an error: press@apps4all.ru.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/151326/
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