The real Android problem
... not piracy. Not even close piracy.
I find it difficult to reason using inaccurate terms such as “big”, “strong” or, as in this case, “incredibly high” . If you argue that the Android problem is a large proportion of piracy based on the subjective statement of a single developer or on the basis of a common opinion, then this is not an argument.
Before I begin to dispel the myth that piracy is such a big problem for Android developers, let me start by re-formulating which particular developers regularly complain about piracy. Apparently, poorly sold applications show a much higher level of pirated copies than applications with higher sales. This is due to the fact that some pirates download and hack everything that is possible, simply because they can do it.
Interestingly, the developers of poorly sold applications are the ones who most complain about piracy. It's so easy to blame pirates for bad sales. Here is a graph based on my ideas about it:
Based on the numbers published in the Xbox Insider book and comparing them with the numbers “banned” (banned) XBox 360 at a time compared to their total number, we understand that the number of hacked Xbox is 3%, and the percentage for Xbox 360 is <5 % according to my estimates. It turns out that the “share of hacks” unexpectedly remains approximately constant between two generations of devices, even though the hacking and banning procedures were very different and it is easier to crack the old Xbox. Interestingly, at the moment for a flashing it is required to open the Xbox or pay someone to do it for you. Let's assume that up to 5% of users want or can somehow hack their Xbox and, if necessary, open the Xbox themselves or pay someone.
')
Hacking ("jailbreak") iPhone - software, and therefore it is easier for the average user. The highest score, from one old article, sets the percentage of hacked iPhones at 10%. And these are just expensive models. While Xboxes are being cracked to run pirated games (ironically they are called backups), jailbreaking has other reasons and goals, such as changing the user interface, adding true multi-tasking, direct access to the file system, etc.
Now, the non-working site PinchMedia once reported that only 38% of jailbroken iPhones have at least one pirated application. Unfortunately, that article was lost. It was also argued that this figure (38%) is also true for cheap devices. If we take this number as a basis and add their statement that this figure is too low, then we can assume that 66% of jailbroken iPhones contain at least one pirated application.
This will reduce the number of iOS devices with pirated applications from 10% to 6-7%. In other words: jailbreak is not equal to piracy.
Now, even if we believe in the "incredibly high" number of illegally used applications on Android (and most of them do not even need a jailbreak), saying that the share of piracy on Android is two or even four times more than on the iPhone - then the maximum what we get - about a quarter of users of devices on Android launched pirated applications (at least once). This may not be the main problem for Android developers.
The real problem is the lack of sales of the remaining 75% of legitimate users of Android devices.
Notice, because I greatly exaggerated about the 25% share of piracy. And here it is not even taken into account that only a fraction of the 25% represents real market losses, these are the users that hack all the applications that they use. Even if the Android market was a quarter smaller, it would still be much larger than the iOS market in absolute terms.
For clarity, think about the latest estimate of the number of devices based on Android: 400 million. This is 59% of the market for all mobile devices. Even if the level of piracy on Android would have been "incredibly high," developers still had to see at least similar profits from each of the markets. But alas, it is not. Android sales are less than iOS sales.
The majority notes higher profits from the iOS market, with rates fluctuating between 60:40 and 80:20. Only in some cases, the ratio reaches 50:50 or even the best for Android, but this is only in cases if you get the largest part of the profit from advertising.
Now let's pay attention to the argument that Android piracy is “embedded in the system”. Download the program, drag and drop it into the device, activate it or register it. For most Android devices, there is no need for jailbreaking (or “rutting”). A flaw in this argument is that even iOS can be hacked effortlessly. And it is well documented, there is even a video “for dummies” explaining the jail in such detail that even Grandma can handle it. And as soon as the phone is hacked, iOS users get access to Cydia.
Cydia is a subcultural alternative to the AppStore. Download a pirated application and transfer it to your device easier than on Android, where all this has to be done manually. Convenience is the driving force behind the continued use of pirated software and other resources. The less convenient the process is, and the longer it takes to complete the tasks, the more selective the person becomes when performing these steps.
Jailbreak is not such a big obstacle for iOS users who start using pirated software, except for the release of new iOS versions for which there is no jailbreak yet. Potential pirates soon buy a device with Android, because it seems to be easier to use pirated applications. But on the other hand, even pirates are interested in the availability of a wide variety of applications, and some REALLY-WITHOUT applications are not available for Android. In light of the above, the jailbreak required for iOS devices does not look like such a big obstacle.
Since pirates are usually inventive by nature, it can be argued that neither Android’s openness will attract them much, nor the jailbreak process for iOS will push them away from buying iOS devices. Thus, the whole question comes down to ordinary users of pirated products who may (or cannot) be more willing to use Android applications simply because they can try them without harm to the device - but is it worth taking them into account?
There are many more considerations, and I think that they all matter to one degree or another. Here are the most common (most famous) arguments, some of which also apply to iOS, although usually to a lesser extent:
In general, the Android’s “ long tail ” of the market is much harder to navigate. If you managed to release a hit for iOS, it would be foolish not to publish also on Android, because Sarf Radio takes you straight to Android. But until then, the Android market is simply not as interesting as the market for application developers. Fragmentation, demographics of users, the App Store device, the apparent number of applications and devices, piracy - they all play a role, and none of the problems can be written off. Taking into account the seriousness of the remaining problems, I am convinced that piracy is in fact at the very bottom of this list.
The real problem of Android is that it is much more difficult to identify and establish contact with your target market, with your target audience, both when selling your application and when advertising and promoting potential buyers.
Also, this is a problem of perception: from the fact that Android devices are MORE, it is concluded that there are MORE and potential customers, so that Android should have a larger market even in spite of fragmentation - right? But such expectations are naive and mout lead only to disappointment. And then - it is so easy to blame everything on piracy, because pirates always launch many more applications than ordinary users, because pirates get everything for free. Naive expectations are later replaced by naive thinking:
PIRACY, -a, cf. - 1. Irresponsible excuse in case your digital product does not sell as well as you expected.
Android devices sold 2.5 times more than with iOS, but everything indicates that there are significantly fewer potential customers among Android users, do we consider piracy or not. And besides, it’s harder to reach them, it’s harder to convince them to buy your application! If there was no iOS market, probably everyone thought that Android is justifiably difficult, but still promising market to enter, and it is certainly much better than any market that appeared before it.
The Android market is extremely complex due to its heterogeneity at all levels. Piracy is only one of the problems, besides the least of all, if you imagine that you have sold 10-20% more copies of your application. Does this change anything? Is this the point that separates the success of an application from its failure? I do not think so. You can observe a large proportion of users of the pirated application, but in this case, you better look at the image above again. Your problem is not pirates, but the fact that you have sold few applications is what you should start with.
Much bigger problems for sales of applications for Android (suppose that the application has high enough quality and good marketing) is the lack of integration, similar App Store integration, delayed system updates, aspects related to “low quality”, device fragmentation, and most important: demographic composition and behavior. And we also know that Android users simply don’t really want to pay for apps.
All this, and of course your application. If your application lacks quality, if it has not found its niche, if it does not like your audience, if it does not cause interest, if it is poorly promoted, then it will most likely fail. And with this you have to deal with. Learn from your mistakes, things that went well and badly, and then try again. Do not blame piracy, this is only an excuse for wimps who do not want to learn lessons.
[original http://www.learn-cocos2d.com ]
UPD About the author: Steffen Itterheim (Steffen Itterheim) - developer, author of the game engine Kobold2D; also the author of books (Learn Cocos2D) and podcasts about the popular Cocos2D game engine.
UPD2 The opinion of the translator (i.e. me) may not coincide with the opinion of the author of the original article (i.e. Steffen Itterheim)
I find it difficult to reason using inaccurate terms such as “big”, “strong” or, as in this case, “incredibly high” . If you argue that the Android problem is a large proportion of piracy based on the subjective statement of a single developer or on the basis of a common opinion, then this is not an argument.
Before I begin to dispel the myth that piracy is such a big problem for Android developers, let me start by re-formulating which particular developers regularly complain about piracy. Apparently, poorly sold applications show a much higher level of pirated copies than applications with higher sales. This is due to the fact that some pirates download and hack everything that is possible, simply because they can do it.
Interestingly, the developers of poorly sold applications are the ones who most complain about piracy. It's so easy to blame pirates for bad sales. Here is a graph based on my ideas about it:
VS piracy number of devices used
Based on the numbers published in the Xbox Insider book and comparing them with the numbers “banned” (banned) XBox 360 at a time compared to their total number, we understand that the number of hacked Xbox is 3%, and the percentage for Xbox 360 is <5 % according to my estimates. It turns out that the “share of hacks” unexpectedly remains approximately constant between two generations of devices, even though the hacking and banning procedures were very different and it is easier to crack the old Xbox. Interestingly, at the moment for a flashing it is required to open the Xbox or pay someone to do it for you. Let's assume that up to 5% of users want or can somehow hack their Xbox and, if necessary, open the Xbox themselves or pay someone.
')
Hacking ("jailbreak") iPhone - software, and therefore it is easier for the average user. The highest score, from one old article, sets the percentage of hacked iPhones at 10%. And these are just expensive models. While Xboxes are being cracked to run pirated games (ironically they are called backups), jailbreaking has other reasons and goals, such as changing the user interface, adding true multi-tasking, direct access to the file system, etc.
Now, the non-working site PinchMedia once reported that only 38% of jailbroken iPhones have at least one pirated application. Unfortunately, that article was lost. It was also argued that this figure (38%) is also true for cheap devices. If we take this number as a basis and add their statement that this figure is too low, then we can assume that 66% of jailbroken iPhones contain at least one pirated application.
This will reduce the number of iOS devices with pirated applications from 10% to 6-7%. In other words: jailbreak is not equal to piracy.
Now, even if we believe in the "incredibly high" number of illegally used applications on Android (and most of them do not even need a jailbreak), saying that the share of piracy on Android is two or even four times more than on the iPhone - then the maximum what we get - about a quarter of users of devices on Android launched pirated applications (at least once). This may not be the main problem for Android developers.
The real problem is the lack of sales of the remaining 75% of legitimate users of Android devices.
Notice, because I greatly exaggerated about the 25% share of piracy. And here it is not even taken into account that only a fraction of the 25% represents real market losses, these are the users that hack all the applications that they use. Even if the Android market was a quarter smaller, it would still be much larger than the iOS market in absolute terms.
For clarity, think about the latest estimate of the number of devices based on Android: 400 million. This is 59% of the market for all mobile devices. Even if the level of piracy on Android would have been "incredibly high," developers still had to see at least similar profits from each of the markets. But alas, it is not. Android sales are less than iOS sales.
The majority notes higher profits from the iOS market, with rates fluctuating between 60:40 and 80:20. Only in some cases, the ratio reaches 50:50 or even the best for Android, but this is only in cases if you get the largest part of the profit from advertising.
What about Cydia?
Now let's pay attention to the argument that Android piracy is “embedded in the system”. Download the program, drag and drop it into the device, activate it or register it. For most Android devices, there is no need for jailbreaking (or “rutting”). A flaw in this argument is that even iOS can be hacked effortlessly. And it is well documented, there is even a video “for dummies” explaining the jail in such detail that even Grandma can handle it. And as soon as the phone is hacked, iOS users get access to Cydia.
Cydia is a subcultural alternative to the AppStore. Download a pirated application and transfer it to your device easier than on Android, where all this has to be done manually. Convenience is the driving force behind the continued use of pirated software and other resources. The less convenient the process is, and the longer it takes to complete the tasks, the more selective the person becomes when performing these steps.
Jailbreak is not such a big obstacle for iOS users who start using pirated software, except for the release of new iOS versions for which there is no jailbreak yet. Potential pirates soon buy a device with Android, because it seems to be easier to use pirated applications. But on the other hand, even pirates are interested in the availability of a wide variety of applications, and some REALLY-WITHOUT applications are not available for Android. In light of the above, the jailbreak required for iOS devices does not look like such a big obstacle.
Since pirates are usually inventive by nature, it can be argued that neither Android’s openness will attract them much, nor the jailbreak process for iOS will push them away from buying iOS devices. Thus, the whole question comes down to ordinary users of pirated products who may (or cannot) be more willing to use Android applications simply because they can try them without harm to the device - but is it worth taking them into account?
More Android problems
There are many more considerations, and I think that they all matter to one degree or another. Here are the most common (most famous) arguments, some of which also apply to iOS, although usually to a lesser extent:
- Many of the Android devices are cheap. This means that they are intended for demanding customers, i.e. those who simply will not (or will not) spend a lot on applications.
- Android-based smartphones are entry-level devices. Usually, customers choose devices based on Android, since they come with a contract for mobile communication, and at the same time due to the fact that they are cheaper than the iPhone with the most minimal configuration. Thus, we get a lot of buyers who are more users of mobile phones than smartphones. For them, it is typical to use only such functions as phone, SMS, photos and Facebook.
- The Android application market, compared to iOS, has a larger percentage of bad applications, applications that are meaningless, applications that are trying to trick them into buying, so you have to worry about possible security problems. Among Android users, the overall impression of application quality is lower [compared to iOS]. All this discourages users from buying apps for Android.
- Device fragmentation is not just a problem for developers. Users also note this problem when applications do not start or poorly adapt to their device. Again, this creates a bad impression about the quality of the applications.
- As with the App Store, most users buy recommended by other users or advertised through the media applications. This effect may be more important in a market in which most applications cost neither your time nor your money. From this we can conclude that Android users are more careful in choosing applications or that they do not know which applications they may like. The difficulty lies in finding the right application.
- Most applications do not work on all devices, thereby limiting the target market. Even developers are enthusiastically looking at absolute numbers, for example 400 million devices. In informal communication, this is usually forgotten or not taken into account. If your sales market is 2 million, since your application can only be run on devices from this amount, then even sales of 20,000 copies (1%) can be considered a success, not necessarily a failure.
- Piracy can be a bigger problem for Android than for iOS. But no one really knows to what extent. A large proportion of piracy on Android can only reflect the prevalence of Android devices and the fact that many cheap Android devices are intended for users with a smaller amount of available tools. The iOS market also cannot boast low levels of piracy.
- IOS and Android users are very, very different populations. You should not expect that you can sell the same product to different people with the same success.
- Some Android users are proponents of Open Source and / or against closed systems, such as Apple does. Thus, they choose Android devices mainly because they reflect their views of the world. In this group, the propensity to piracy is usually higher.
- Being cheaper devices and taking into account the destructive policy of updates, Android devices become outdated much faster than iOS devices. This means that the relative number of Android devices used today - in the sense that the user is interested in buying new applications - may be much less than the number of iOS devices and certainly fewer than 400 million devices sold. In addition, device users are not interested in investing in a device if it may soon become obsolete or its user value is low.
- Google Play is not integrated into devices compared to how iTunes is used when connecting devices with iOS. This means that users do not see (new) applications. Specialized synchronization and file transfer utilities bypass Google Play. Apple has a good reason to want you to open iTunes for almost everything you want to do with your devices (except for video and photos from the camera). This may be annoying at times, but it makes more people browse and buy apps on the App Store.
In general, the Android’s “ long tail ” of the market is much harder to navigate. If you managed to release a hit for iOS, it would be foolish not to publish also on Android, because Sarf Radio takes you straight to Android. But until then, the Android market is simply not as interesting as the market for application developers. Fragmentation, demographics of users, the App Store device, the apparent number of applications and devices, piracy - they all play a role, and none of the problems can be written off. Taking into account the seriousness of the remaining problems, I am convinced that piracy is in fact at the very bottom of this list.
So what exactly is the problem with Android?
The real problem of Android is that it is much more difficult to identify and establish contact with your target market, with your target audience, both when selling your application and when advertising and promoting potential buyers.
Also, this is a problem of perception: from the fact that Android devices are MORE, it is concluded that there are MORE and potential customers, so that Android should have a larger market even in spite of fragmentation - right? But such expectations are naive and mout lead only to disappointment. And then - it is so easy to blame everything on piracy, because pirates always launch many more applications than ordinary users, because pirates get everything for free. Naive expectations are later replaced by naive thinking:
PIRACY, -a, cf. - 1. Irresponsible excuse in case your digital product does not sell as well as you expected.
Android devices sold 2.5 times more than with iOS, but everything indicates that there are significantly fewer potential customers among Android users, do we consider piracy or not. And besides, it’s harder to reach them, it’s harder to convince them to buy your application! If there was no iOS market, probably everyone thought that Android is justifiably difficult, but still promising market to enter, and it is certainly much better than any market that appeared before it.
The Android market is extremely complex due to its heterogeneity at all levels. Piracy is only one of the problems, besides the least of all, if you imagine that you have sold 10-20% more copies of your application. Does this change anything? Is this the point that separates the success of an application from its failure? I do not think so. You can observe a large proportion of users of the pirated application, but in this case, you better look at the image above again. Your problem is not pirates, but the fact that you have sold few applications is what you should start with.
Much bigger problems for sales of applications for Android (suppose that the application has high enough quality and good marketing) is the lack of integration, similar App Store integration, delayed system updates, aspects related to “low quality”, device fragmentation, and most important: demographic composition and behavior. And we also know that Android users simply don’t really want to pay for apps.
All this, and of course your application. If your application lacks quality, if it has not found its niche, if it does not like your audience, if it does not cause interest, if it is poorly promoted, then it will most likely fail. And with this you have to deal with. Learn from your mistakes, things that went well and badly, and then try again. Do not blame piracy, this is only an excuse for wimps who do not want to learn lessons.
[original http://www.learn-cocos2d.com ]
UPD About the author: Steffen Itterheim (Steffen Itterheim) - developer, author of the game engine Kobold2D; also the author of books (Learn Cocos2D) and podcasts about the popular Cocos2D game engine.
UPD2 The opinion of the translator (i.e. me) may not coincide with the opinion of the author of the original article (i.e. Steffen Itterheim)
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/149624/
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