The answer to the main issue of crowdfunding
The question, which until now has not been given a clear answer, is: “What percentage of crowdfunding projects not only successfully collects the required amount, but also brings the matter to the end, releasing the promised product?” Thanks to research by Professor of the University of Pennsylvania Ethan Mollic, This question has a clear answer. Ethan Mollik studied 46,902 projects from the site kickstarter.com - this is slightly less than the total number of completed projects, since atypical projects were excluded from the total number - 225 projects with a target of less than $ 100, 25 projects with a target of more than $ 1,000,000 (none of them was successful) and 3,931 projects with teams outside the US — they were registered with the help of intermediaries.
Successfully raised funds 47.9% The smaller the amount and timeframe for raising funds, the higher the chances of success. Unsuccessful projects collect almost nothing - only one out of ten collects at least 30%, and only 3% of unsuccessful projects go to half. Successful collect only slightly more than the stated amount - a quarter of projects exceeded the plan by 3%, half - by 10% and only one out of ten - by 200% and more. Of the 106 projects that raised as much as ten times more money than planned, 33 were very large (more than $ 100,000).
The quality of the video and hit on the Kickstarter's main page greatly influence the success (featured project has 89% chance of success, normal - 30%). Another very important factor is the social links of the project authors. Ethan Mollik collected statistics on the number of friends on Facebook from the founders of the projects. If there were less than 10, the chances of success with all other things being equal were only 9%. 100 friends gave 20%, 1000 - 40%. Almost perfect logarithmic dependence! Social ties also matter offline - if the team and the founder of the project live in a large city, the chances of success are higher. And it is important in which big city - in Nashville musical projects are going well, in Los Angeles - cinematic, in San Francisco - technological.
Mollik selected 381 successful projects from the “Design” and “Technology” sections, in which the release dates of products and awards were clearly indicated so that an unequivocal conclusion could be made whether the promise was fulfilled or not. Only 14 projects ended in nothing. And 3 of 14 honestly returned the collected funds. 11 dishonest or irresponsible founders took away only $ 21,324, or about 0.5% of the 4.5 million collected by the rest of the 381 projects.
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If the founders of the crowdfunding projects are honest, everything is in order, then with the planning of time things are worse. Only 25% of projects fulfilled promises and delivered products and rewards on time to backers. Another 42% delayed release for a period of 2 to 8 months, and 33% at the time of the study did not have time to graduate at all. It is difficult to say which part of these 33% will ultimately fulfill the promises, and which will not. The teams leading these projects have not disappeared anywhere and are keeping in touch with their backers. They can be accused of reassessing their strength, but not of dishonesty.
The length of the delay is highly dependent on the complexity of the project. Large and expensive projects are more difficult to complete than small ones. Almost all projects that collected less than $ 50,000 sooner or later released the promised product. Another regularity is that problems with deadlines often arise for projects that have raised a lot more money than they planned. Projects that have collected 10 times more than the plan, are late twice as often as those who collected just as much as they requested.
From the graph it is clear that complex projects as a whole are subject to the same laws as simple ones, but with a delay of several months. It can be assumed that sooner or later more than 90% of all financed projects will fulfill promises. However, have patience.
Download a PDF with the results of the study here .
Successfully raised funds 47.9% The smaller the amount and timeframe for raising funds, the higher the chances of success. Unsuccessful projects collect almost nothing - only one out of ten collects at least 30%, and only 3% of unsuccessful projects go to half. Successful collect only slightly more than the stated amount - a quarter of projects exceeded the plan by 3%, half - by 10% and only one out of ten - by 200% and more. Of the 106 projects that raised as much as ten times more money than planned, 33 were very large (more than $ 100,000).
The quality of the video and hit on the Kickstarter's main page greatly influence the success (featured project has 89% chance of success, normal - 30%). Another very important factor is the social links of the project authors. Ethan Mollik collected statistics on the number of friends on Facebook from the founders of the projects. If there were less than 10, the chances of success with all other things being equal were only 9%. 100 friends gave 20%, 1000 - 40%. Almost perfect logarithmic dependence! Social ties also matter offline - if the team and the founder of the project live in a large city, the chances of success are higher. And it is important in which big city - in Nashville musical projects are going well, in Los Angeles - cinematic, in San Francisco - technological.
The answer to the main question
Mollik selected 381 successful projects from the “Design” and “Technology” sections, in which the release dates of products and awards were clearly indicated so that an unequivocal conclusion could be made whether the promise was fulfilled or not. Only 14 projects ended in nothing. And 3 of 14 honestly returned the collected funds. 11 dishonest or irresponsible founders took away only $ 21,324, or about 0.5% of the 4.5 million collected by the rest of the 381 projects.
')
If the founders of the crowdfunding projects are honest, everything is in order, then with the planning of time things are worse. Only 25% of projects fulfilled promises and delivered products and rewards on time to backers. Another 42% delayed release for a period of 2 to 8 months, and 33% at the time of the study did not have time to graduate at all. It is difficult to say which part of these 33% will ultimately fulfill the promises, and which will not. The teams leading these projects have not disappeared anywhere and are keeping in touch with their backers. They can be accused of reassessing their strength, but not of dishonesty.The length of the delay is highly dependent on the complexity of the project. Large and expensive projects are more difficult to complete than small ones. Almost all projects that collected less than $ 50,000 sooner or later released the promised product. Another regularity is that problems with deadlines often arise for projects that have raised a lot more money than they planned. Projects that have collected 10 times more than the plan, are late twice as often as those who collected just as much as they requested.
From the graph it is clear that complex projects as a whole are subject to the same laws as simple ones, but with a delay of several months. It can be assumed that sooner or later more than 90% of all financed projects will fulfill promises. However, have patience.
Download a PDF with the results of the study here .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/148106/
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