Greenback grows stronger. Expectations, opinions, technique

That is the moment when the long-term belief that US rates will be lowered again in the near future is fading away. Yesterday has hit investors hard, but tomorrow ’s employment data will put an end to this doubt. Ironically, a good foothold for a decision to reduce the rate on September 18 was the August data on the creation of new jobs, including, of course, agriculture. Today's economic news, most likely, will not benefit the dollar, because factory orders are expected to decrease. It is possible that applications for unemployment benefits may surprise. Returning to the topic of interest rates in the United States, it is worth saying that some large players remain confident that the federal funds rate will be lowered on October 31 .

So, Bill Gross, managing the world's largest bond fund Pacific Investment Management Co. ( PIMCO ) said yesterday that he was completely confident in cutting back the stakes. According to him, the ongoing bullish sentiment in the market for 10-year Treasury bonds show strong confidence in such an action by the FOMC .

Early this morning, the financial futures market indicated a 70 percent chance of a quarter-rate decline to 4.5% at the next meeting. Also, a shadow of a doubt on strong deviations in investors' expectations imposes yesterday's closure on Wall Street. All major indices fell in the range of 0.5-0.7%. This is mainly due to the bad release of the service ISM . You can get acquainted with a more detailed picture of yesterday's trading on US stock exchanges here .
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The technical picture of the foreign exchange market looks pretty logical. Short-term strengthening of the dollar in almost all pairs is consistent with the fundamental expectations. Let's analyze the picture of the euro. On the graph, I brought my vision of the graphic situation. The lower brown median lies in close proximity to the 50% (median) blue line of the ascending channel. I dare to suggest that the couple can get support in the area. Time is today or tomorrow. Based on the fact that investors will most likely cover up short-term long poses for the dollar, opened for the last 3 days on expectations of the peyrols, I think the pair will get support here. Fundamentally today my assumption is supported by evening data on the USA and the upcoming press conference of Trichet . Good luck to all trade!