Artificial Intelligence. Forecast 2029
To program AI is, apparently, a hopeless matter. Computer simulation of AI is please, as much as you like. But write an AI program !?
Considerations here are simple. Everyone knows the Leninist definition: " Consciousness is a product of highly organized matter ." If we assume that someone develops an AI program and writes it, for example, on a piece of paper, then a piece of paper will automatically become “highly organized matter” and begin to think by itself !!!
Yes. In the course of one remark. To get involved in a dispute about words , and to clarify the nuances of the meaning of such terms as: intellect, consciousness, thinking, mind, higher nervous activity, etc., I would not like. I believe that all these concepts are associated with the same phenomenon, the essence of which is not yet fully understood. Because there is no need to breed holivary. The main thing - the reality of this phenomenon is beyond doubt.
The inability to program an AI does not mean that it will not be created in the near future. A certain Ray Kurzweil, as they say, “the famous American inventor”, predicts the appearance of AI by 2029 . Taking the forecast from the development of technologies of "smart" nanorobots that will be implanted in the brain and directly interact with human neurons. Thus, the brain activity will be carried out, including using non-biological elements. I think, to deduce from here the forecast on AI is most reasonable.
I can not say how nanotechnology is already in work with the human brain. But the snails' brains (they have larger neurons) have already been soldered to chips . Moreover, these chips really replace the work of biological neurons .
So, brain activity on non-biological carriers is quite possible.
')
I don’t remember exactly how it is correctly called in the classification of approaches to creating AI, either “ structural ” or “imitation”, the approach — building AI by modeling the structure of the human brain — but this is what we are seeing now. All of the above is clearly demonstrates.
But you need to understand that all of the above is not done for AI . This case is fueled by another idea. Not even an idea, but a simple selfish interest. That's why I believe that everything will work out. And soon enough.
In general, we are talking about the so-called " technology of immortality ." The essence, which boils down to using the achievements of medicine and other sciences, to learn from a person to replace all failing organs, including the brain. Fortunately, as shown by experiments on snails, brain activity is quite possible on non-biological carriers.
Strictly speaking, in the framework of the development of "technology of immortality", AI will simply be a by-product of purely practical aspects of solving the problems of aging and prolonging life.
I think the events will develop approximately as follows.
First, prostheses will begin to be applied replacing individual functions of the neurons (most likely this is already used, but not on a mass scale). Then learn to replace neurons and groups of neurons entirely. For example, some old millionaire starts to survive from the mind - additional chips are connected to him, instead of failed neurons. These additions take on the necessary functions and our old man again, like a cucumber. For money, especially large, there is nothing that people would not do! And such a trifle as a non-biological carrier of brain activity, and even more so.
In general, initially non-biological elements of brain tissue will be developed in order to support the aging brains of some millionaires. Then there will be volunteers who will agree to prosthetics 10,20,30,40, 50% of the brain tissue. Etc. If prosthetics are carried out gradually, then, most likely, most of the thinking processes naturally move from dying neurons to a new carrier, without any critical damage to the “personality”. Thus, all mental activity can be moved to a non-biological carrier and, in fact, artificial intelligence, no different from human, can be obtained. Including legally no different. Since he will have at his disposal a medical card, a passport, and other documents, the volunteer who agreed to prosthetics of more than 50% of the brain. Now nobody is taking a passport from a person, if instead of his leg he was placed a wooden prosthesis? Likewise, this rule applies to any other prostheses. It should be all right.
Although there is one doubt.
There are fears that a person is also defined by such an obscure substance as " soul ". It seems that experiments with weighing the dying showed the physical reality of this substance.
Well, let's hope that the soul will " flow " from the dying body to a new carrier, along with higher nervous activity. And everything will turn out. Only it is necessary to act gradually, slowly, in small steps.
Of course, such a technique of “gradual overflow” will not be very effective in terms of time spent. But on the other hand, the result can be reliably obtained in the complete absence of the theoretical basis of this whole process. No theory of thinking is needed! In general, for the production of intelligence, it was never needed. Mankind, especially Chinese, has been doing fine without it for more than one thousand years.
I think doubts about the role of the “soul” in creating the intellect can only finally be dispelled by an experiment on a volunteer.
If everything works out, if the “overflow” works as it should, then a massive boom of brain replacement will begin immediately. In general, all parts of the body. Who wants to go with a bunch of sores in a decrepit body, if there is an opportunity to live in comfort ?
Needless to say - not free. Additional money will further contribute to the development of basic technologies for AI.
One way or another, there will be factories that will massively produce artificial limbs to replace human brain tissue. Sooner or later, a wise guy will appear who will come up with the idea not to produce individual parts of the brain, but to do it entirely . And not separately, but together with all other parts of the body. As they say: " Turnkey ". Those. will begin to be made fully equipped media to accommodate the personalities of any willing people. A good marketing ploy.
And here again there will be a clever man who, having acquired such a “carrier”, fully ready to start thinking processes on it, decides to use it for other purposes. More precisely to destination, but not for itself. In general, it will simply be treated as a “carrier” as with a newborn child . Educate him, teach, care, teach the mind. So there will be the first true AI, created not by “overflowing”, but completely artificially.
With proper pedagogical skills, the most ordinary child will come out of this “real” AI, and then the most ordinary citizen . At the same time, it will be no different from other surrounding populations, most of which already exist in artificial bodies. Distinguish: who created the "overflow", and who - "education" is not physically possible! Each citizen, as expected, is given a passport at the age of 14-16 years and forward, into adulthood, with all the ensuing consequences.
In general, the first "real" AI will most likely remain unnoticed, an everyday occurrence. Since by that time the majority of mankind will already replace the worn biological bodies with their artificial substitutes. "Artificial" is no surprise. On the whole, the idea of ​​AI will be of little interest to anyone. It will overshadow the prospect of Immortality. The creation of "real" AI will be engaged in, perhaps, that some eccentrics obsessed with pedagogy.
Although, it is possible that for some time (until they die out) , conservative naturals , with biological bodies, resemble posters "Down with AI!", Will be awakened. I think all this will settle for 100-150 years. And about the AI ​​will be completely forgotten.
And this is the end of the epic with the creation of AI.
Considerations here are simple. Everyone knows the Leninist definition: " Consciousness is a product of highly organized matter ." If we assume that someone develops an AI program and writes it, for example, on a piece of paper, then a piece of paper will automatically become “highly organized matter” and begin to think by itself !!!
Yes. In the course of one remark. To get involved in a dispute about words , and to clarify the nuances of the meaning of such terms as: intellect, consciousness, thinking, mind, higher nervous activity, etc., I would not like. I believe that all these concepts are associated with the same phenomenon, the essence of which is not yet fully understood. Because there is no need to breed holivary. The main thing - the reality of this phenomenon is beyond doubt.
The inability to program an AI does not mean that it will not be created in the near future. A certain Ray Kurzweil, as they say, “the famous American inventor”, predicts the appearance of AI by 2029 . Taking the forecast from the development of technologies of "smart" nanorobots that will be implanted in the brain and directly interact with human neurons. Thus, the brain activity will be carried out, including using non-biological elements. I think, to deduce from here the forecast on AI is most reasonable.
I can not say how nanotechnology is already in work with the human brain. But the snails' brains (they have larger neurons) have already been soldered to chips . Moreover, these chips really replace the work of biological neurons .
So, brain activity on non-biological carriers is quite possible.
')
I don’t remember exactly how it is correctly called in the classification of approaches to creating AI, either “ structural ” or “imitation”, the approach — building AI by modeling the structure of the human brain — but this is what we are seeing now. All of the above is clearly demonstrates.
But you need to understand that all of the above is not done for AI . This case is fueled by another idea. Not even an idea, but a simple selfish interest. That's why I believe that everything will work out. And soon enough.
In general, we are talking about the so-called " technology of immortality ." The essence, which boils down to using the achievements of medicine and other sciences, to learn from a person to replace all failing organs, including the brain. Fortunately, as shown by experiments on snails, brain activity is quite possible on non-biological carriers.
Strictly speaking, in the framework of the development of "technology of immortality", AI will simply be a by-product of purely practical aspects of solving the problems of aging and prolonging life.
How it all starts
I think the events will develop approximately as follows.
First, prostheses will begin to be applied replacing individual functions of the neurons (most likely this is already used, but not on a mass scale). Then learn to replace neurons and groups of neurons entirely. For example, some old millionaire starts to survive from the mind - additional chips are connected to him, instead of failed neurons. These additions take on the necessary functions and our old man again, like a cucumber. For money, especially large, there is nothing that people would not do! And such a trifle as a non-biological carrier of brain activity, and even more so.
In general, initially non-biological elements of brain tissue will be developed in order to support the aging brains of some millionaires. Then there will be volunteers who will agree to prosthetics 10,20,30,40, 50% of the brain tissue. Etc. If prosthetics are carried out gradually, then, most likely, most of the thinking processes naturally move from dying neurons to a new carrier, without any critical damage to the “personality”. Thus, all mental activity can be moved to a non-biological carrier and, in fact, artificial intelligence, no different from human, can be obtained. Including legally no different. Since he will have at his disposal a medical card, a passport, and other documents, the volunteer who agreed to prosthetics of more than 50% of the brain. Now nobody is taking a passport from a person, if instead of his leg he was placed a wooden prosthesis? Likewise, this rule applies to any other prostheses. It should be all right.
Although there is one doubt.
There are fears that a person is also defined by such an obscure substance as " soul ". It seems that experiments with weighing the dying showed the physical reality of this substance.
Well, let's hope that the soul will " flow " from the dying body to a new carrier, along with higher nervous activity. And everything will turn out. Only it is necessary to act gradually, slowly, in small steps.
Of course, such a technique of “gradual overflow” will not be very effective in terms of time spent. But on the other hand, the result can be reliably obtained in the complete absence of the theoretical basis of this whole process. No theory of thinking is needed! In general, for the production of intelligence, it was never needed. Mankind, especially Chinese, has been doing fine without it for more than one thousand years.
I think doubts about the role of the “soul” in creating the intellect can only finally be dispelled by an experiment on a volunteer.
If everything works out, if the “overflow” works as it should, then a massive boom of brain replacement will begin immediately. In general, all parts of the body. Who wants to go with a bunch of sores in a decrepit body, if there is an opportunity to live in comfort ?
Needless to say - not free. Additional money will further contribute to the development of basic technologies for AI.
How is it going to end
One way or another, there will be factories that will massively produce artificial limbs to replace human brain tissue. Sooner or later, a wise guy will appear who will come up with the idea not to produce individual parts of the brain, but to do it entirely . And not separately, but together with all other parts of the body. As they say: " Turnkey ". Those. will begin to be made fully equipped media to accommodate the personalities of any willing people. A good marketing ploy.
And here again there will be a clever man who, having acquired such a “carrier”, fully ready to start thinking processes on it, decides to use it for other purposes. More precisely to destination, but not for itself. In general, it will simply be treated as a “carrier” as with a newborn child . Educate him, teach, care, teach the mind. So there will be the first true AI, created not by “overflowing”, but completely artificially.
With proper pedagogical skills, the most ordinary child will come out of this “real” AI, and then the most ordinary citizen . At the same time, it will be no different from other surrounding populations, most of which already exist in artificial bodies. Distinguish: who created the "overflow", and who - "education" is not physically possible! Each citizen, as expected, is given a passport at the age of 14-16 years and forward, into adulthood, with all the ensuing consequences.
In general, the first "real" AI will most likely remain unnoticed, an everyday occurrence. Since by that time the majority of mankind will already replace the worn biological bodies with their artificial substitutes. "Artificial" is no surprise. On the whole, the idea of ​​AI will be of little interest to anyone. It will overshadow the prospect of Immortality. The creation of "real" AI will be engaged in, perhaps, that some eccentrics obsessed with pedagogy.
Although, it is possible that for some time (until they die out) , conservative naturals , with biological bodies, resemble posters "Down with AI!", Will be awakened. I think all this will settle for 100-150 years. And about the AI ​​will be completely forgotten.
And this is the end of the epic with the creation of AI.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/146898/
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