Tomorrow's computer of happiness
This post is an extrapolation of the use of those technological advances in the field of user interaction interfaces with computer technology, which we can already observe.
Unfortunately, I was late for several days, and on Habré was already posted a similar analyst , which has a number of obvious misses, due, among other things, to economic reasons.
Anyway, this review is based not only on those technologies that are now or will be tomorrow, but also on those technologies that were yesterday, on their development dynamics without which no extrapolation can exist. Quantum computers, biocomputers, neurocomputers and everything else will not be described here - I would like to dwell on the class of so-called consumer IT-technologies that live in the home of the average user.
The era of the consumer computer should not begin with the monstrous machines that were born in research universities at the dawn of the computer era, but since the mid 70s, when computers began to come to the homes of those who were not programmers by definition or whose work was not directly associated with computer technology (for example, writers, accountants, schoolchildren, etc.). Probably the first popular such computer is the Apple II, which was delivered to the end user in a fully assembled form, i.e. the user did not need to think about how to build it or what kind of software he (the user) needed to install for his (computer) operability.
')
The further history of the development of personal computers was in the direction of increasing productivity and disk space. This power optimization has always occurred on a par with the miniaturization of computer components. Compactness led to the possibility of creating portable computers (laptop) - laptops and tablet computers. Their era is the beginning of the 80s.
The miniaturization of system units led to the emergence of barebone-based systems and nettops. Moreover, the latter occupy so little space that they can be hung on the back side of the monitor (where there are special mounts for this on modern monitors). Of course, this miniaturization currently leads to a reduction in computing power in these systems, but for the last three to five years this power is enough to serve all the needs of the average consumer, of which there are not that many: browsers, office products, HD-quality movies .
Here it is necessary to distinguish between the average consumer of personal computer resources and all the rest. The average user does not play the most advanced computer games (especially at the maximum settings), he does not compile programs, he does not render images and three-dimensional scenes, he does not work with graphics using professional graphic software processors, etc. All this - the needs beyond the average.
In parallel with the development of computing, telecommunications are developing. The beginning of the consumer Internet can be considered the mid-90s, when the basic data transfer protocols were formed, the domain name system and the first browsers appeared. In the future, the development of consumer Internet was associated with the development of the first wave of pervasive communication (purvasive communication) - social networks and their integration into other Internet resources (transfer of some functionality of these networks to resources not originally intended for this). Remember this important definition.
It should be noted that the term purvasive communication, however, as well as purvasive computing (about it - below), was not taken from the ceiling, but was drawn from the latest foreign scientific articles. In runet such words at the moment almost never occur.
The development of parallel computing and communication networks has influenced the creation of supercomputers, computing clusters, grid infrastructures and cloud computing. We will not consider the first because their capacities are not designed to meet the needs of the average consumer. Still others can be built on the basis of the second, first, or other computing devices. The latter can technically be implemented on all of the above. We will be interested only in cloud services, which began to appear towards the end of the first decade of the new millennium.
The concept of clouds naturally gave birth to several consumption patterns, namely: SaaS (software as a service), PaaS (platform as a service), IaaS (infrastructure as a service) and more valuable for us is WaaS (workplace as a service).
Although quite recently another model appeared - processor time as a service (I don’t remember the abbreviation).
Of these, Windows Azure and Amazon Web Services are the most famous. Now you can not install software to yourself, on your local computer, but use it directly on the supplier’s website (for example, Google Docs). And not only programs, but also operating systems (Google Chrome OS).
Let's move from history and the present to the future.
I want to immediately note that this extrapolation is based mostly on economic concepts, since ultimately, it is they who decide what will be on the market and what will not be on the market, regardless of the genius or utility of this or that technology. It is tough, but it is.
In the theory of solving inventive problems there is such a thing as an ideal end result. From the point of view of this concept, an ideal system is a system that does not exist, but its functions are performed. How to achieve this is beautifully described in books on TRIZ; Those interested are referred to them; this is very useful material, especially for any designer or systems analyst. Let's look from this point of view on system units.
On the one hand, modern system blocks cover all the needs of the average user, and their size is close to the size of an average book. On the other hand, all these needs can already be met with just one browser. Why should an average user buy (ie, go and choose) a particular program when his information provider (for example, Google) offers him good options. And then think about servicing in case of technical breakdowns, problems with software, their relevance, security, etc. At the same time, the user’s needs come not to the computational power of his own system, but to the capacity of his Internet access channel.
The consumer does not want to think, he wants to consume. He does not want a computer, he wants the satisfaction of his needs - the use of services. For this, he does not need a computer as such, since the personal computer is only his means in satisfying his needs. All that the average consumer needs is the Internet access interface, which is limited only by the communication channel provided by its Internet provider, the monitor for displaying information, and the information input interfaces (currently the mouse and keyboard). All the computing power that the user possessed will be transferred to the cloud, access to which will be delivered automatically by his Internet provider. The consumer will not need to think and monitor the state of his computer, for lack of it. He will not think about the security of storage or loss of his data - for him it will do the cloud provider, operating under the scheme WaaS, when the user receives a fully equipped workspace. This type of service will be on a par with utilities as mandatory - at the moment the UN has already recognized the right to access the Internet as an inalienable human right.
The monitor, as we know, does not work without a computer. And the tv works. The increase in the intellectual capabilities of modern TVs (Smart TV) has led to the fact that with the help of them it became possible to go online and interact with other user devices (for example, the latest concept of Opera TV browser or Xbox ). Taking into account the fact that all the needs that only a computer previously could fulfill, can now fulfill the cloud, for access to which only the Internet is needed, one should expect that the monitor will not be needed by the consumer, instead, it will be used by what it is. every house has a TV. Thus, another consumer problem is solved - he does not need to think about which monitor to buy (you need to think about which TV, but that is what he thinks about).
Only the data entry interfaces are left - the mouse and keyboard. They are not very well and connect to the TV. However, for the average user, they may not be needed. With the development of touch screens, the software interfaces of the products themselves and the way they interact with them have significantly changed. So, in touchscreen devices, there is no such action as “hovering over an object”. Moreover, for the average user, the keyboard and mouse functionality is clearly redundant (Who knows what the Pause / Break button does? How many ordinary mortals use the F-function keys?). In order to replace it, I propose to turn to modern interfaces.
As already mentioned about the ideal system, it is better that the consumer does not have any technical input devices at all, or their functions are transferred to other devices. I want to once again draw your attention to the videos about Opera TV browser and Xbox and to a bunch of three components - a TV, a tablet and a smartphone. On the TV has already been said that it will carry the functions of the computer. The tablet itself is a confirmation of this theory, since in essence, it is nothing but a screen (monitor) with touch input. Let's talk about the smartphone later.
The tablet can completely replace the keyboard in case of access to the Internet through the TV, because text dictation by voice can be very, very tiring. Add a convex screen technology to the tablet to reduce flaws from spelling miss, and you will not be pulled away from it. In all other cases, when no text input is intended, the methods of interaction with the TV are simplified by voice commands and gesture control , or so . And along with the development of program interfaces, the energy consumption (calories) of a user to interact with such an interface can be reduced to a minimum. As a result, neither the keyboard nor the mouse will simply become unnecessary. The consumer will only have a TV, tablet and smartphone (which will include the functionality of a TV remote control) that will satisfy all of its needs.
It is worth mentioning all the semi-invasive and invasive interfaces that science fiction writers love so much. They will never be accepted by the average consumer. The average consumer doesn’t like it when a headset is constantly stuck in his ear, he doesn’t like it, when they stick a flash drive into it (thank God, there’s nowhere to go), he will not tolerate any nasal filters and the like . People even abandoned glasses in favor of contact lenses, including because they do not tolerate units in front of their eyes (you don’t feel contact lenses, right?). When a consumer has a choice between a device that gives him more inconvenience and less inconvenience, he will choose the second (taking into account the hypothesis that the consumer does not chase the price, and the cost of both goods is approximately equal). It is a fact. The market will reject these developments even before they try to market them there (only as an exclusive product for geeks).
I would like to mention two more important things that will find their implementation in the near future. The first is advances in artificial intelligence, such as natural language understanding, intellectual search, and intelligent agents. With the first one, everything is quite clear and we can see its fairly tolerable implementations in the same Siri, the only question is the optimization of the algorithms. By intellectual search in this post, I understand all the mechanisms of the "request-response" type, which are used by the average consumer of content. This can include search for information in search engines, and search for goods and services, and search for people in social networks with a high proportion of relevance, taking into account the created portrait of the searching consumer based on his previous requests. Synthesis of such consumer services will result in the creation of some intelligent agent - an assistant who will help the average consumer both in traveling on the global web and in home life (see below). WaaS, built on the concepts of an intelligent agent, will change the very type of interaction with the operating system for the user. The user will not give clear commands to execute certain instructions to such an agent, he will communicate with him, as with a more or less real being (not a person, but a creature). This agent will make a portrait of the consumer and his family members, take the initiative in certain issues, help the average user to live in the modern world. This can start from a request / order / command to display a weather forecast on a TV screen, to a search for tickets in St. Tropez that would be beneficial to the consumer. It is obvious that the expert system (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Taking into account the speed of life in the information space, the average user will simply not be able to timely meet the satisfaction of one or another of his needs, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, there are electronic devices in the apartment of the average consumer. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, like a washing machine with thirty-five modes of washing. There are questions of communication between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of the smart home (for example, the “EVA” project) (I have no relation to this project; the link is not for advertising purposes, but for the sake of understanding ). The above-mentioned intelligent agent will be something like a butler, who monitors all electronic equipment, manages its efficiency and executes user commands.
The development of all these ideas is the concept of ubiquitous computerization (pervasive computing), when computers and software, or rather their functionality, is available always and everywhere to the standard user. Best of all, this concept is reflected in the Microsoft Productivity Future Vision video. And in this concept, the first role is played by the consumer’s smartphone, something that is always with it. The development of wireless networks, cloud technologies and the boom of mobile applications has brought the future of IT technologies that I have described significantly closer. The “Internet of Things” appeared, when data from various sensors are collected in a single database, structured and the information in a processed form is presented to the end user, for example, traffic information. Pervasive communication (purvasive communication), when the user directly (and not through accounts) interacts with Internet resources (and not only with the Internet), makes the user more open, which may entail changes in the ethical norms of societies that have passed into the information age.
PS I, unfortunately, very little touched upon the topic of intellectual technologies in this post, because it is already quite long. I will try to write in more detail about the concepts of ubiquitous communication and computerization in the next post.
Unfortunately, I was late for several days, and on Habré was already posted a similar analyst , which has a number of obvious misses, due, among other things, to economic reasons.
Anyway, this review is based not only on those technologies that are now or will be tomorrow, but also on those technologies that were yesterday, on their development dynamics without which no extrapolation can exist. Quantum computers, biocomputers, neurocomputers and everything else will not be described here - I would like to dwell on the class of so-called consumer IT-technologies that live in the home of the average user.
Past and present
The era of the consumer computer should not begin with the monstrous machines that were born in research universities at the dawn of the computer era, but since the mid 70s, when computers began to come to the homes of those who were not programmers by definition or whose work was not directly associated with computer technology (for example, writers, accountants, schoolchildren, etc.). Probably the first popular such computer is the Apple II, which was delivered to the end user in a fully assembled form, i.e. the user did not need to think about how to build it or what kind of software he (the user) needed to install for his (computer) operability.
')
The further history of the development of personal computers was in the direction of increasing productivity and disk space. This power optimization has always occurred on a par with the miniaturization of computer components. Compactness led to the possibility of creating portable computers (laptop) - laptops and tablet computers. Their era is the beginning of the 80s.
The miniaturization of system units led to the emergence of barebone-based systems and nettops. Moreover, the latter occupy so little space that they can be hung on the back side of the monitor (where there are special mounts for this on modern monitors). Of course, this miniaturization currently leads to a reduction in computing power in these systems, but for the last three to five years this power is enough to serve all the needs of the average consumer, of which there are not that many: browsers, office products, HD-quality movies .
Here it is necessary to distinguish between the average consumer of personal computer resources and all the rest. The average user does not play the most advanced computer games (especially at the maximum settings), he does not compile programs, he does not render images and three-dimensional scenes, he does not work with graphics using professional graphic software processors, etc. All this - the needs beyond the average.
In parallel with the development of computing, telecommunications are developing. The beginning of the consumer Internet can be considered the mid-90s, when the basic data transfer protocols were formed, the domain name system and the first browsers appeared. In the future, the development of consumer Internet was associated with the development of the first wave of pervasive communication (purvasive communication) - social networks and their integration into other Internet resources (transfer of some functionality of these networks to resources not originally intended for this). Remember this important definition.
It should be noted that the term purvasive communication, however, as well as purvasive computing (about it - below), was not taken from the ceiling, but was drawn from the latest foreign scientific articles. In runet such words at the moment almost never occur.
The development of parallel computing and communication networks has influenced the creation of supercomputers, computing clusters, grid infrastructures and cloud computing. We will not consider the first because their capacities are not designed to meet the needs of the average consumer. Still others can be built on the basis of the second, first, or other computing devices. The latter can technically be implemented on all of the above. We will be interested only in cloud services, which began to appear towards the end of the first decade of the new millennium.
The concept of clouds naturally gave birth to several consumption patterns, namely: SaaS (software as a service), PaaS (platform as a service), IaaS (infrastructure as a service) and more valuable for us is WaaS (workplace as a service).
Although quite recently another model appeared - processor time as a service (I don’t remember the abbreviation).
Of these, Windows Azure and Amazon Web Services are the most famous. Now you can not install software to yourself, on your local computer, but use it directly on the supplier’s website (for example, Google Docs). And not only programs, but also operating systems (Google Chrome OS).
Let's move from history and the present to the future.
Future
I want to immediately note that this extrapolation is based mostly on economic concepts, since ultimately, it is they who decide what will be on the market and what will not be on the market, regardless of the genius or utility of this or that technology. It is tough, but it is.
In the theory of solving inventive problems there is such a thing as an ideal end result. From the point of view of this concept, an ideal system is a system that does not exist, but its functions are performed. How to achieve this is beautifully described in books on TRIZ; Those interested are referred to them; this is very useful material, especially for any designer or systems analyst. Let's look from this point of view on system units.
On the one hand, modern system blocks cover all the needs of the average user, and their size is close to the size of an average book. On the other hand, all these needs can already be met with just one browser. Why should an average user buy (ie, go and choose) a particular program when his information provider (for example, Google) offers him good options. And then think about servicing in case of technical breakdowns, problems with software, their relevance, security, etc. At the same time, the user’s needs come not to the computational power of his own system, but to the capacity of his Internet access channel.
The consumer does not want to think, he wants to consume. He does not want a computer, he wants the satisfaction of his needs - the use of services. For this, he does not need a computer as such, since the personal computer is only his means in satisfying his needs. All that the average consumer needs is the Internet access interface, which is limited only by the communication channel provided by its Internet provider, the monitor for displaying information, and the information input interfaces (currently the mouse and keyboard). All the computing power that the user possessed will be transferred to the cloud, access to which will be delivered automatically by his Internet provider. The consumer will not need to think and monitor the state of his computer, for lack of it. He will not think about the security of storage or loss of his data - for him it will do the cloud provider, operating under the scheme WaaS, when the user receives a fully equipped workspace. This type of service will be on a par with utilities as mandatory - at the moment the UN has already recognized the right to access the Internet as an inalienable human right.
The monitor, as we know, does not work without a computer. And the tv works. The increase in the intellectual capabilities of modern TVs (Smart TV) has led to the fact that with the help of them it became possible to go online and interact with other user devices (for example, the latest concept of Opera TV browser or Xbox ). Taking into account the fact that all the needs that only a computer previously could fulfill, can now fulfill the cloud, for access to which only the Internet is needed, one should expect that the monitor will not be needed by the consumer, instead, it will be used by what it is. every house has a TV. Thus, another consumer problem is solved - he does not need to think about which monitor to buy (you need to think about which TV, but that is what he thinks about).
Only the data entry interfaces are left - the mouse and keyboard. They are not very well and connect to the TV. However, for the average user, they may not be needed. With the development of touch screens, the software interfaces of the products themselves and the way they interact with them have significantly changed. So, in touchscreen devices, there is no such action as “hovering over an object”. Moreover, for the average user, the keyboard and mouse functionality is clearly redundant (Who knows what the Pause / Break button does? How many ordinary mortals use the F-function keys?). In order to replace it, I propose to turn to modern interfaces.
As already mentioned about the ideal system, it is better that the consumer does not have any technical input devices at all, or their functions are transferred to other devices. I want to once again draw your attention to the videos about Opera TV browser and Xbox and to a bunch of three components - a TV, a tablet and a smartphone. On the TV has already been said that it will carry the functions of the computer. The tablet itself is a confirmation of this theory, since in essence, it is nothing but a screen (monitor) with touch input. Let's talk about the smartphone later.
The tablet can completely replace the keyboard in case of access to the Internet through the TV, because text dictation by voice can be very, very tiring. Add a convex screen technology to the tablet to reduce flaws from spelling miss, and you will not be pulled away from it. In all other cases, when no text input is intended, the methods of interaction with the TV are simplified by voice commands and gesture control , or so . And along with the development of program interfaces, the energy consumption (calories) of a user to interact with such an interface can be reduced to a minimum. As a result, neither the keyboard nor the mouse will simply become unnecessary. The consumer will only have a TV, tablet and smartphone (which will include the functionality of a TV remote control) that will satisfy all of its needs.
It is worth mentioning all the semi-invasive and invasive interfaces that science fiction writers love so much. They will never be accepted by the average consumer. The average consumer doesn’t like it when a headset is constantly stuck in his ear, he doesn’t like it, when they stick a flash drive into it (thank God, there’s nowhere to go), he will not tolerate any nasal filters and the like . People even abandoned glasses in favor of contact lenses, including because they do not tolerate units in front of their eyes (you don’t feel contact lenses, right?). When a consumer has a choice between a device that gives him more inconvenience and less inconvenience, he will choose the second (taking into account the hypothesis that the consumer does not chase the price, and the cost of both goods is approximately equal). It is a fact. The market will reject these developments even before they try to market them there (only as an exclusive product for geeks).
I would like to mention two more important things that will find their implementation in the near future. The first is advances in artificial intelligence, such as natural language understanding, intellectual search, and intelligent agents. With the first one, everything is quite clear and we can see its fairly tolerable implementations in the same Siri, the only question is the optimization of the algorithms. By intellectual search in this post, I understand all the mechanisms of the "request-response" type, which are used by the average consumer of content. This can include search for information in search engines, and search for goods and services, and search for people in social networks with a high proportion of relevance, taking into account the created portrait of the searching consumer based on his previous requests. Synthesis of such consumer services will result in the creation of some intelligent agent - an assistant who will help the average consumer both in traveling on the global web and in home life (see below). WaaS, built on the concepts of an intelligent agent, will change the very type of interaction with the operating system for the user. The user will not give clear commands to execute certain instructions to such an agent, he will communicate with him, as with a more or less real being (not a person, but a creature). This agent will make a portrait of the consumer and his family members, take the initiative in certain issues, help the average user to live in the modern world. This can start from a request / order / command to display a weather forecast on a TV screen, to a search for tickets in St. Tropez that would be beneficial to the consumer. It is obvious that the expert system (for example, ticket search) performs its functions better than the average consumer does. Taking into account the speed of life in the information space, the average user will simply not be able to timely meet the satisfaction of one or another of his needs, if he does it alone. In addition to the TV, smartphone and tablet, there are electronic devices in the apartment of the average consumer. Many of them are already quite sophisticated electronic devices, like a washing machine with thirty-five modes of washing. There are questions of communication between these devices, which are reflected in the concept of the smart home (for example, the “EVA” project) (I have no relation to this project; the link is not for advertising purposes, but for the sake of understanding ). The above-mentioned intelligent agent will be something like a butler, who monitors all electronic equipment, manages its efficiency and executes user commands.
The development of all these ideas is the concept of ubiquitous computerization (pervasive computing), when computers and software, or rather their functionality, is available always and everywhere to the standard user. Best of all, this concept is reflected in the Microsoft Productivity Future Vision video. And in this concept, the first role is played by the consumer’s smartphone, something that is always with it. The development of wireless networks, cloud technologies and the boom of mobile applications has brought the future of IT technologies that I have described significantly closer. The “Internet of Things” appeared, when data from various sensors are collected in a single database, structured and the information in a processed form is presented to the end user, for example, traffic information. Pervasive communication (purvasive communication), when the user directly (and not through accounts) interacts with Internet resources (and not only with the Internet), makes the user more open, which may entail changes in the ethical norms of societies that have passed into the information age.
PS I, unfortunately, very little touched upon the topic of intellectual technologies in this post, because it is already quite long. I will try to write in more detail about the concepts of ubiquitous communication and computerization in the next post.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/146035/
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