What is really going on in the mobile market

Squeeze the facts about the market : why the phone will become a multi-passport, where competition will be concentrated and how many people fall into stress without a phone.


_{Pirates and warming Comparison of prices for bread, milk, gasoline, a ticket on the subway and a minute of conversation on the cellular.}

Introductory

In 2011, the subscriber base in Russia accounted for approximately 4.6% of the total number of mobile communication users in the world. The Big Three controls more than 82% of the market.
')
As of December 31, 2010, the penetration of cellular services in Russia (the number of SIM cards per 100 residents of the Russian Federation) was 166.3%, according to Rosstat and the Ministry of Communications. For comparison, the average for Europe is 128%, in the CIS - 122%.

In 2006, mobile penetration in Russia surpassed the 100% mark (for comparison, in 2002 there were only two countries with such a level, in 2010 - more than a hundred). After that, the process of saturation of the mobile communications market began, and, as a result, a decrease in annual growth. In the period from 2008 to 2011, the growth rate slowed down and amounted to 7-8% compared to the previous year. Moreover, the growth is determined by the little-covered regions and new connections of subscribers who already have one or more SIM-cards.



Thus, the active growth of the subscriber base in 2010 in Russia was actually completed, reaching values ​​that were ahead of those in the European Union (128%) and the CIS countries (122%). Most of the current sales of contracts are the result of subscriber transition or short-term connections (for example, for the subscriber’s time outside of his “home” region).

It is expected that the mobile communications market in Russia will finally stabilize at a penetration level of 170% -175% (this is about 244 million SIMs in general and about 124 million active SIM-cards).



To assess the level of mobile communication development, one more indicator is used - actual penetration - the share of citizens who have at least one SIM card. For Russia, this indicator, according to various estimates, ranges from 85% to 90%.

From 2000 to 2010, the average volume of minutes consumed by a subscriber has more than tripled from 90 to 300 minutes, respectively (source: MForum analitics).

According to the annual statements of operators on the results of operations in Russia in 2010, profits are distributed as follows: MTS - 32%, MegaFon - 28.1%, Vimpelcom - 28%.

The volume of the mobile phone market in 2010. compared to 1997 increased 205 times.

The number of phones sold in retail for the entire period of the existence of mobile communication in Russia is about 290 million units.



Acquisitions and mergers gradually lead to the emergence of universal telecom operators providing a full range of information and telecommunication services for both corporate and private subscribers, including mobile and fixed communications, broadband Internet access, digital cable TV, as well as all related services and services .

About phones

• The telephone from the communication means becomes a personal identifier and a clearing center.
• Phone today is a full-fledged camera, navigator, player.
• Unlimited tariffs are used to “tie” the subscriber to the player and push out the fixed line. For example, in Europe, the proportion of households without fixed-line communication, in principle, is about 30%.
• In the future, the phone will also become a diagnostic center, a training tool, and a personal data collector.
• According to ITU estimates, more than half of new Internet users in developing countries first came to the Web from a mobile phone, and not from a personal computer (which are still expensive and too difficult to use for the majority of the population in developing countries). In our country, thanks to the free “zero zones” of “Beeline” (like 0.vkontakte.ru), up to 30% of new users began to use mobile Internet.
• The development of subscriber terminals determines the development of the mobile communications market. Currently, more than 87% of all mobile terminals owned by Russian users support GPRS technology, 63% of which are EDGE technology. (Source: J & P Consulting).
• Telephones are on average cheaper, which affects their availability.

Main trends

• Penetration is growing at the expense of elderly people and young people: the middle age segment is covered almost completely (98%).
• Revenue growth in the industry comes at the expense of revenue growth per subscriber, which is about 2% per quarter in 2010-2011.
• The growth of the “average check” per subscriber is due to the availability of mobile Internet and additional services, while the share of voice traffic in revenue is falling.
• In 2011, the total amount of data transferred via the mobile Internet increased by more than 2.5 times compared to 2010 and amounted to 95 PB. (ComNews Research)
• For 570 rubles it was possible to buy a tariff plan at 1 Mbit / s in 2010, a year later for the same money - at 7 Mbit / s. The penetration rate of mobile broadband by 2015 will be up to 41% (forecast).
• The main technical trend is the readiness to switch to a new generation of packet communication - LTE. According to J'son & Partners Consulting, the first year of operation of LTE networks in Russia will bring up to 300 thousand subscribers, and by the end of 2015 there will be already 9 million of them. According to estimates by Informa Telecoms & Media, by 2015 there will be 273 million LTE subscribers, while the share of mobile WiMAX will be just over 1%.
• Operators' competition is focused on the development of additional services. In recent years, the share of mobile Internet in the structure of revenues from VAS services has increased significantly, pushing aside the revenues from SMS, which in 2009 amounted to about 49%.
• The direction of FMC is promising (fixed and mobile communication convergence, here is a topic ).
• According to iKS-Consulting, the volume of the content services market in 2002 was only 20 million dollars, and by 2011 it had grown more than 70 times and amounted to 1.5 billion dollars.
• M2M technology (machine-to-machine) is being actively developed, with a wide range of applications, ranging from telemetry and telematics in various industries (transfer of measurement data, some parameters with a certain frequency, from industrial, transport and other objects, weather monitoring, removal of data from utility meters), prior to the use of M2M in a segment of the population - for health control, in dwelling protection and monitoring systems. Before the advent of mobile communication, telemetry information collection technology was very costly for stationary objects (because of the need to lay a separate line to each sensor) and impossible for moving objects. About M2M and implementation features will be a separate topic.
• The volume of the mobile advertising market in 2011 will be about $ 12 million, in 2012 this figure will increase by 70% (source: J'son & Partners Consulting).

Communication prices

In the period from 1998 to 2011 the cost of the most mass goods and services increased as follows:

• Bread - the price has increased 8 times;
• Milk - the price has increased 6 times;
• 92nd gasoline - price increased 9 times;
• Travel to the Metro - the price has increased 11 times.

At the same time, the cost of an average minute of talking on a mobile phone has decreased by 17 times.

Loyalty

From polls:

• Once the phone was a sign of status. Now emotional motivation is at the level of 15%, that is, mobile communication has ceased to be a way to highlight the individual in society. High value of the phone for doing business - more than 50%. The statement “to be in touch always and everywhere” acts as a functional motivation and has the highest percentage of positive answers - more than 90%.
• “Loyal” users (one operator all their life) compared to “disloyal” 40% less communicate in social networks, pay for services and goods twice less, use information services 40% less, use entertainment phone 30% less . They need 40% less access to the mobile Internet, they are 45% less using mobile communications for business purposes.
• Thus, “loyal” users, having one operator for all their life (having only one SIM-card), are more conservative, mobile communication functionality is less important for them, they consume less services, but they are more emotional. At the same time, a paradoxical conclusion can be made that the user's attachment and his emotionality do not bring profit to the operator. Those who transferred from another operator will be more cynical and functional, demand more from the operator, but also pay more.
• Users with multiple SIM cards are 60% higher than the average for the sample, give importance to the image and prestige of the phone, compared with users with a single SIM card.
• Only 15% consider it important to have a “beautiful” phone number,
• Only 12% consider it important to use the services of the same operator as friends and acquaintances from their circle of contacts. For 45% it doesn’t matter which operator’s services to use.

Owners of smartphones in comparison with owners of ordinary "handsets"

• 30% more (28% and 18%) communicate in social networks.
• Twice more often (48% and 27%) use a smartphone for entertainment.
• 2.2 times more often (55% and 23%) use information services.
• 2.3 times more often (60% and 26%) access the Internet.
• 30% more active (72% and 58%) are used for business purposes.

Gender factors

• There are no significant differences in the consumption of services by men and women in most services. There is a higher activity of consumption of navigation services by men. Men are 10% less likely than women to send SMS, 20% less often send MMS and pictures, but almost twice as often use navigation services and 30% more informational, 50% more often pay for services and goods.
• There are significant in consumption by age groups. The level of consumption of high-tech services in the “over 50” group for almost all services does not exceed 10%. For example, the Internet access service is only 9%, while among the 15-25 group the mobile Internet penetration rate reaches 70%.
• The group of 15-25 years is the most active with a share of 50% for sending MMS. Men in this group are twice as likely as women to use navigation services (which seems to reflect the gender structure of car drivers).

Phone Attachment

What to do if you forgot your phone at home? The answers are clearly divided: a third of users will return home for the phone, a third will be nervous and will find an alternative solution. Only 34% believe that nothing will happen, and will be able to do without a phone during the day. At the same time, 50% believe that they have become dependent on the phone, but they see nothing wrong with that.

Speech

_{The material was prepared on the basis of the analytical report of Evgeny Solomatin.}