The Golden Age of Silicon Valley is over, and we are dancing on her grave
Translation of an interview with Stephen Blank , a teacher at Berkeley and Stanford, and a Silicon Valley entrepreneur about the upcoming Facebook IPO.
Q (Poll): What will happen to Silicon Valley for an IPO?
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O (answer): In my opinion, this is the beginning of the end of the familiar Valley. Previously, they invested in science and technology, and, generally, in silicon. A good venture investor could make hundreds of millions. Now the scheme has changed under the influence of two ideas. First, for the first time, billions of people have electronic devices, and there are many mobile devices among them. Secondly, the communication, which previously occurred face to face, now flows into the Internet.
And this trend is only gaining momentum. Facebook is not the last chord, remember MySpace. Arts and entertainment, whatever you want, now in computers. For the first time, companies like Facebook own markets at the level of the majority of the world's inhabitants.
Q: For Facebook, this is awesome.
A: For them, it's awesome. But the Silicon Valley familiar to us is over.
If you have a choice - to invest in a cool cure for cancer, but you will not see income for ten years (at best), or in a social network project that will fire in two years, what will you choose?
If you have a venture capital investment company, you are throwing out your research department. This is all difficult and you need to wait for a very long time. But the social network is another matter, it is not necessary to wait, the return is fast, since the two things mentioned earlier work.
Q: Half of the participants in the innovation and high-tech market believe that these are all signs of another dot-com-boom.
A: When the last “bubble” happened, investors went crazy, clinging to any interesting projects. I do not think this is a bubble. The cost is overvalued, in my opinion, but social media is a reality.
Q: Facebook is worth a hundred billion?
A: In the last bubble, no clients were observed, and Facebook earns $ 4 from each user. Users are customers. They give real income. No one argues that Facebook can make money, argue how much and how fast it will grow. This is just a management problem.
Q: But does Silicon Valley end anyway?
A: I teach science and engineering. I see students trying to launch complex commercial projects. But investors are interested in chasing the billions that are hidden in smartphones. Thank God, we have grants for a small research business from the government, otherwise the Chinese would get everything.
Q: But there are people who do interesting things, such as Vinod Kosla . [comment perev.] venture investor, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems.
A: Yes, there is. But think about it. The four most interesting projects in the last five years are Tesla [Motors], SpaceX, Google Driving and Google Goggles. [note of trans.] Electric vehicles, private spacecraft, autonomous car and augmented reality glasses . One person, Elon Musk [co-founder of PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors] and one company, Google, have done all four projects that are worthy of Silicon Valley.
Q: Is this a sign of a serious failure of venture capital investors in the Valley?
A: Not that someone does something bad. Simply paraphrasing Willie Sutton , “social media is now where the money is” [Willy Sutton, also known as “Ill Willie” is a famous bank robber (well, such are celebrities in the US, well). When a reporter asked him why he was robbing banks, he replied: “because there is money there”] .
Q: What is the catch?
A: I do not know. Thank God for government grants, the National Institute of Health, for Muska and for Google.
Q: Well, is the end of American innovation, or is it not so simple?
A: I would sum it up like this - the success of Facebook unintentionally leads to the demise of Silicon Valley in that state when investors were taking risks of financing science and technology that helped the world. The Golden Age of Silicon Valley is over, and we are dancing on her grave. Facebook, on the other hand, is a great company. So I have dual feelings.
PS: Article tested for the absence of silicone.
Q (Poll): What will happen to Silicon Valley for an IPO?
')
O (answer): In my opinion, this is the beginning of the end of the familiar Valley. Previously, they invested in science and technology, and, generally, in silicon. A good venture investor could make hundreds of millions. Now the scheme has changed under the influence of two ideas. First, for the first time, billions of people have electronic devices, and there are many mobile devices among them. Secondly, the communication, which previously occurred face to face, now flows into the Internet.
And this trend is only gaining momentum. Facebook is not the last chord, remember MySpace. Arts and entertainment, whatever you want, now in computers. For the first time, companies like Facebook own markets at the level of the majority of the world's inhabitants.
Q: For Facebook, this is awesome.
A: For them, it's awesome. But the Silicon Valley familiar to us is over.
If you have a choice - to invest in a cool cure for cancer, but you will not see income for ten years (at best), or in a social network project that will fire in two years, what will you choose?
If you have a venture capital investment company, you are throwing out your research department. This is all difficult and you need to wait for a very long time. But the social network is another matter, it is not necessary to wait, the return is fast, since the two things mentioned earlier work.
Q: Half of the participants in the innovation and high-tech market believe that these are all signs of another dot-com-boom.
A: When the last “bubble” happened, investors went crazy, clinging to any interesting projects. I do not think this is a bubble. The cost is overvalued, in my opinion, but social media is a reality.
Q: Facebook is worth a hundred billion?
A: In the last bubble, no clients were observed, and Facebook earns $ 4 from each user. Users are customers. They give real income. No one argues that Facebook can make money, argue how much and how fast it will grow. This is just a management problem.
Q: But does Silicon Valley end anyway?
A: I teach science and engineering. I see students trying to launch complex commercial projects. But investors are interested in chasing the billions that are hidden in smartphones. Thank God, we have grants for a small research business from the government, otherwise the Chinese would get everything.
Q: But there are people who do interesting things, such as Vinod Kosla . [comment perev.] venture investor, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems.
A: Yes, there is. But think about it. The four most interesting projects in the last five years are Tesla [Motors], SpaceX, Google Driving and Google Goggles. [note of trans.] Electric vehicles, private spacecraft, autonomous car and augmented reality glasses . One person, Elon Musk [co-founder of PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors] and one company, Google, have done all four projects that are worthy of Silicon Valley.
Q: Is this a sign of a serious failure of venture capital investors in the Valley?
A: Not that someone does something bad. Simply paraphrasing Willie Sutton , “social media is now where the money is” [Willy Sutton, also known as “Ill Willie” is a famous bank robber (well, such are celebrities in the US, well). When a reporter asked him why he was robbing banks, he replied: “because there is money there”] .
Q: What is the catch?
A: I do not know. Thank God for government grants, the National Institute of Health, for Muska and for Google.
Q: Well, is the end of American innovation, or is it not so simple?
A: I would sum it up like this - the success of Facebook unintentionally leads to the demise of Silicon Valley in that state when investors were taking risks of financing science and technology that helped the world. The Golden Age of Silicon Valley is over, and we are dancing on her grave. Facebook, on the other hand, is a great company. So I have dual feelings.
PS: Article tested for the absence of silicone.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/144110/
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