Upgrade to Windows Phone 8. Stop speculating, it will

The heading does not quite reflect the situation on Habré (thank God), but it very precisely fits the general situation on Russian-language blogs (and English-language ones) dedicated to Windows Phone. It’s not a week for someone to write a new topic somewhere that WindowsPhone 7 phones will update (or not, depending on my mood) to the next version of the axis. Honestly, zadolbalo. It is enough to sit down and just add up two plus two to understand what the update will be. And there are three reasons for this:

1. Fight for the American market
2. Biennial contract with mobile operator
3. Copying the business model of the financial market leader (Apple)

In more detail about these three points under a cat. Moreover, I will be glad if in the comments I’ll either support or reject me.

So. Item number 1 - the US market. The one who rules the American market rules the world market. American (even more correctly, English-speaking) users are numerous and actively pay for applications. Therefore, when writing good applications, the authors focus primarily on them.
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Item number 2 (follows from the first): The main focus is on Americans and English-speaking Europeans, then the practice of buying a phone with a two-year contract comes into force. The phone is bought for a penny, but the user cannot jump off the current tariff plan without fines. To paraphrase: the user must be satisfied with his phone during the spirit of the years since the purchase of the phone. To do this, his phone must be relevant for at least two years from the date of purchase. Otherwise, he will jump off the platform.

Item number 3 (follows from the 2nd). At the moment, the most successful business model is Apple. Ask yourself what Microsoft can do best? That's right, copy other people's ideas, recycle and crush marketing. So it was with Palm and Windows Mobile, so it was with Netscape Navigator and Internet Explorer, so it was with PlayStation and Xbox. There are other examples, but these are the most noticeable.

We return to iOS and Windows Phone. Obviously, WP7 is trying to be more like an iPhone than an Android. That is, who exactly is our target for copying, visibly to the naked eye. Now we are looking at the once sensational update schedule for iOS and Android:



What do we see? Three years of support! From here we get a simple conclusion: updates (possibly with truncation of the functional) will be available from two to three years.

Now we consider:
The first generation of phones (Windows Phone 7) - October 2010
The second generation of phones (Windows Phone 7.5) - the end of 2011
The third generation of phones (Windows Phone 8) - the end of 2012

We take into account all the above, we see that all phones currently released will receive an upgrade to Windows 8.

In addition, there may be an attempt to play on the Android field, where the current version is updated very badly:



Now the counter argument:

They say that Windows Phone has such a small market share that it can be neglected.
I do not think. New Nokia smartphones are very actively promoted (this is the standard second generation of phones for hardware). Secondly, right by the time Windows Phone 8 is released, the number of programs in the market will reach 100 thousand. Do not start from scratch.