And yet, how much does FB cost?
This post was prompted by the Iforgot article “How much does Facebook actually cost?” And comments on the article. On the one hand, it seems to me, the author of the article approached the evaluation of facebook too conservative and peculiar, on the other hand, those who criticized him did not quite correctly understand. Immediately I will warn you that this is my personal opinion, and not the super-analyst, so I do not pretend to be the ultimate truth. And now in order.
First, the author of the article for some reason gives the population of the Earth and derives from it the number of the facebook audience. The result: “I do not believe that facebook has 845 million users, really no more than 200 million.” In fact, the number of this audience is measured (approximately) by several companies and even if there is an error plus minus 50 million, the figure is 845 million. such a situation cannot be a matter of faith. But what the author points out quite rightly is the growth rate of the facebook audience, they have really slowed down a lot and, probably, the social network has almost reached the saturation point.
Secondly, the author writes that Facebook has no real assets, except for the audience, and you can just copy Facebook in 1-2 months. But in fact, Facebook has: a) the best programmers b) “hardware” + code and create an analogue of the technical level that it now has, in 1-2 months will not work. Facebook has honed and refined the code for years before it overtook MySpace. Somewhere I read such a phrase: “If all genius is simple, why are there so few geniuses around?”.
Third, many critical comments left the impression that the author’s opinion was simply misunderstood. As if the author is already predicting the end of Facebook. In fact, Iforgot is trying to say that Facebook cannot cost 100 billion, bringing 1 billion in profits a year, and I agree with him on that. But! Now that's what I decided to write a post for. What do we mean by Facebook value? Is it possible to bring together the concepts of company value and exchange (let's say) company value? Let's make a small excursion into history and remember what a tool such as ACTION was created for.
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Shares were a form of investment in a company: the company received money that is necessary for growth and development, the investor received a share in the company in the form of shares and could count on making a profit from the company's future earnings in accordance with its share. And then one day they canceled the gold standard and the money began to print like candy wrappers. What was the result? If the goods are produced for $ 1, and $ 10 is printed, then with the extra $ 9 something needs to be done. What? Right! Bring on the stock exchange and buy stocks. As a result, stocks lost their original value and became the subject of speculation, and their value has long been a “virtual” value to the real value of the company having no relationship.
So how much is Facebook? I do not know, they only know it in Facebook itself. And what is the exchange value of FB (Facebook ticker when entering the stock exchange)? Well, let it be 100 billion. Can it jump to 200 billion in half a year? Maybe why not. And maybe up to 50 billion. Fall. Because it does not matter - this is just a speculative stock price, and the exchange itself today serves to redistribute money between its participants. Facebook itself is absolutely violet how much it will cost on the stock exchange, because it will also receive 1 billion profits, also pay salaries to its programmers, and also show ads. And all those timelines and likes will be purple to stockbrokers, because this social and online chat has nothing to do with their make money. On this optimistic note, I will put an end.
First, the author of the article for some reason gives the population of the Earth and derives from it the number of the facebook audience. The result: “I do not believe that facebook has 845 million users, really no more than 200 million.” In fact, the number of this audience is measured (approximately) by several companies and even if there is an error plus minus 50 million, the figure is 845 million. such a situation cannot be a matter of faith. But what the author points out quite rightly is the growth rate of the facebook audience, they have really slowed down a lot and, probably, the social network has almost reached the saturation point.
Secondly, the author writes that Facebook has no real assets, except for the audience, and you can just copy Facebook in 1-2 months. But in fact, Facebook has: a) the best programmers b) “hardware” + code and create an analogue of the technical level that it now has, in 1-2 months will not work. Facebook has honed and refined the code for years before it overtook MySpace. Somewhere I read such a phrase: “If all genius is simple, why are there so few geniuses around?”.
Third, many critical comments left the impression that the author’s opinion was simply misunderstood. As if the author is already predicting the end of Facebook. In fact, Iforgot is trying to say that Facebook cannot cost 100 billion, bringing 1 billion in profits a year, and I agree with him on that. But! Now that's what I decided to write a post for. What do we mean by Facebook value? Is it possible to bring together the concepts of company value and exchange (let's say) company value? Let's make a small excursion into history and remember what a tool such as ACTION was created for.
')
Shares were a form of investment in a company: the company received money that is necessary for growth and development, the investor received a share in the company in the form of shares and could count on making a profit from the company's future earnings in accordance with its share. And then one day they canceled the gold standard and the money began to print like candy wrappers. What was the result? If the goods are produced for $ 1, and $ 10 is printed, then with the extra $ 9 something needs to be done. What? Right! Bring on the stock exchange and buy stocks. As a result, stocks lost their original value and became the subject of speculation, and their value has long been a “virtual” value to the real value of the company having no relationship.
So how much is Facebook? I do not know, they only know it in Facebook itself. And what is the exchange value of FB (Facebook ticker when entering the stock exchange)? Well, let it be 100 billion. Can it jump to 200 billion in half a year? Maybe why not. And maybe up to 50 billion. Fall. Because it does not matter - this is just a speculative stock price, and the exchange itself today serves to redistribute money between its participants. Facebook itself is absolutely violet how much it will cost on the stock exchange, because it will also receive 1 billion profits, also pay salaries to its programmers, and also show ads. And all those timelines and likes will be purple to stockbrokers, because this social and online chat has nothing to do with their make money. On this optimistic note, I will put an end.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/141523/
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