LTE, 3G, Femto or Wi-Fi? Where is marketing, and where is a reasonable business model?
Many have heard or know that:
- there are already dozens of LTE networks in the world and predictions that LTE is our everything, just an incredible amount, although there are quite real problems with both infrastructure and terminal equipment;
- there are already hundreds of 3G networks in one form or another in the world and they have billions of subscribers;
- a huge number of Wi-Fi networks and according to analysts' forecasts by 2015 more than 95% of all mobile devices will be supplied with a Wi-Fi radio module; if we take into account the projections that mobile devices in 2016-2017 will be in the use of 15-17 billion, then we can estimate potential of this technology. Although now most laptops have an integrated Wi-Fi chip, and the number of smartphones and tablets with Wi-Fi is growing explosively.
Probably no one will argue that 3G / HSPA networks (and less advanced options of this type) and, in the long term, LTE are most clearly associated with mobile data traffic - wireless Internet access, applications, etc. This is typical of the whole world. Therefore, the combination of the user's desire to consume more mobile data traffic (services via wireless connections) and the desire of operators and providers to meet the demand and make money on this leads to an increase in investment in wireless infrastructure, terminal equipment, and service platforms. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, predicts mobile Internet traffic to grow 39 times between 2010 and 2014, exceeding two terabytes per month. This is about 20% higher than other analytic agencies' more cautious forecasts. But even the most conservative forecasts show an increase in traffic of this type by 20 or more times in the coming years. There are also estimates from Informa Telecoms & Media that by 2015 the average user with a smartphone in the United States will consume 776 MB per month, which is 10 times more than what is observed today. Without going into details, it can be stated that the main approach of the present day, consisting in the construction of mobile networks of a macrotype, cannot effectively solve the problem of providing such volumes of traffic for objective reasons. Here both the relatively low spectral efficiency of both 3G and LTE, the limited availability of frequencies in each country, and the need to “punch” the walls of buildings to provide indoor service (on average, about 80% of all types of mobile communications occur indoors) and tons .P.
So, it can be argued that there is a sufficient number of reasons for moving in the direction of the strategy of small cells.
')
At this stage, it makes sense to briefly describe not very well-known facts that are the real weight for inclining the balance to small cells in contrast to the basic approach of the present.
- Vodafon has recently significantly changed its strategy and, in fact, is moving away from building macro networks to the strategy of small cells based on Wi-Fi technology and Femtocell, which is enough information on the Internet.
- Canadian company Shaw Communications acquired licenses for LTE back in 2008 in the AWS spectrum, but eventually, after a very detailed analysis of the business case and numerous tests, decided to abandon plans for the construction of the Advanced LTE network and, instead, begin to deploy the Wi network -Fi Mesh based on Cisco equipment. More like this here .
- The American operator Cox Communications, having spent more than half a billion dollars on licenses in the ASW spectrum for 3G and LTE and even deploying a 3G infrastructure, after several years also decided to go out of business, including owning 3G infrastructure. The operator has focused on Sprint Nextel’s mobile infrastructure reuse strategy and services for its subscribers. Details here .
- The cost of data transmission via Wi-Fi network is only about 10% of the same amount of expenses on 3G networks (according to information from one of the operator-customers of Aptilo). More information about the reasons for switching to offload mobile data traffic from 3G networks here .
- The use of Femtocell looks very attractive for many operators, especially since there is the possibility of implementing the concept of a self-organizing network in this case (when the femtobase connects to any Ethernet port with Internet access, and performs procedures not only accessing the operator's infrastructure, but also analyzing radio environment in order to normalize the level of radiated power relative to the levels of signals and frequency channels in the environment to minimize interference). But it is important not to forget that the femto device is, in fact, a mini-base station of 3G or 4G / LTE technology and requires a suitable radio interface from client devices for connection. From this it follows that for the mass of client devices, this service will be unavailable in the foreseeable future, as they are focused on Wi-Fi: for example, entry-level tablet computers or simply cheap models, reader books that have Wi-Fi radio, an absolute majority laptops also have only Wi-Fi interface, etc. All this leads to the fact that users will need an additional Wi-Fi device to provide the service, for example, an Access Point or a Router with Wi-Fi. And the speeds of 3G technologies and even LTE cannot be compared with the speeds obtained now on 802.11n devices and, especially, those speeds that will be available on compatible 802.11ac devices in the near future (more data on 802.11ac in my post on Habré here ).
- Having passed a serious way to analyze their business, the state and prospects of development of various technologies, the largest American operator ATT decided to scale the development of the Wi-Fi network as an additional for its 3G network. The company has acquired a company that owns a large number of Wi-Fi hotspots and now owns infrastructure from more than 20,000 hotspots. Currently, ATT uses Wi-Fi access not only as Wi-Fi, but also builds its strategy on large-scale mobile data traffic off-line from its 3G network. This significantly expands the capacity of the 3G network in places with a high concentration of mobile users. More information about ATT strategy, findings and plans in the article here .
Let's try to draw some conclusions from the marketing noise, the well-known practical information and data above:
1. One cannot do without any technology (or, perhaps, a group of such technologies) of small cells, since otherwise it would be physically impossible to meet the traffic needs of mobile data in the foreseeable future;
2. It is necessary to build additional networks of small cells that increase the capacity of the macro networks of mobile operators, with the main focus on providing coverage indoors;
3. Probably the most successful technology of small cells should be considered Wi-Fi, since:
- in the Russian Federation there is a conditionally unlicensed spectrum for indoor use in both 2.4GHz and 5GHz (let’s leave the topic of 2.4GHz spectral band congestion for now, because there are solutions that allow you to effectively use Wi-Fi networks in such conditions );
- 802.11n provides a wide bandwidth right now, and the compatible 802.11ac standard will further increase the bandwidth in the foreseeable future (although we can’t do without a real revision of our regulator’s 5GHz policy and we should do everything possible together to lobby for positive dynamics in this direction );
- Wi-Fi can already be integrated with the infrastructure of a mobile network. Networks with transparent authentication in the Wi-Fi network of subscribers with SIM cards on HLRs of mobile telecom operators, for example, ATT, have been working for quite a long time. Leading manufacturers of Wi-Fi solutions can create E2E solutions with integration into the mobile cortex, for example, solutions from Cisco Systems. Starting with 3GPP Rel.8, a Wi-Fi network can already be considered a trusted access type, provided that 802.1x authentication and 802.11i encryption are provided.
- in the future, variants of combined small Wi-Fi / Femto bases are possible, which a number of manufacturers are already engaged in and this will also add benefits from the use of these technologies in access.
I am convinced that the massive development of small cells is the right way and our operators need to move in this direction. What does a respected community think?
- there are already dozens of LTE networks in the world and predictions that LTE is our everything, just an incredible amount, although there are quite real problems with both infrastructure and terminal equipment;
- there are already hundreds of 3G networks in one form or another in the world and they have billions of subscribers;
- a huge number of Wi-Fi networks and according to analysts' forecasts by 2015 more than 95% of all mobile devices will be supplied with a Wi-Fi radio module; if we take into account the projections that mobile devices in 2016-2017 will be in the use of 15-17 billion, then we can estimate potential of this technology. Although now most laptops have an integrated Wi-Fi chip, and the number of smartphones and tablets with Wi-Fi is growing explosively.
Probably no one will argue that 3G / HSPA networks (and less advanced options of this type) and, in the long term, LTE are most clearly associated with mobile data traffic - wireless Internet access, applications, etc. This is typical of the whole world. Therefore, the combination of the user's desire to consume more mobile data traffic (services via wireless connections) and the desire of operators and providers to meet the demand and make money on this leads to an increase in investment in wireless infrastructure, terminal equipment, and service platforms. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, predicts mobile Internet traffic to grow 39 times between 2010 and 2014, exceeding two terabytes per month. This is about 20% higher than other analytic agencies' more cautious forecasts. But even the most conservative forecasts show an increase in traffic of this type by 20 or more times in the coming years. There are also estimates from Informa Telecoms & Media that by 2015 the average user with a smartphone in the United States will consume 776 MB per month, which is 10 times more than what is observed today. Without going into details, it can be stated that the main approach of the present day, consisting in the construction of mobile networks of a macrotype, cannot effectively solve the problem of providing such volumes of traffic for objective reasons. Here both the relatively low spectral efficiency of both 3G and LTE, the limited availability of frequencies in each country, and the need to “punch” the walls of buildings to provide indoor service (on average, about 80% of all types of mobile communications occur indoors) and tons .P.
So, it can be argued that there is a sufficient number of reasons for moving in the direction of the strategy of small cells.
')
At this stage, it makes sense to briefly describe not very well-known facts that are the real weight for inclining the balance to small cells in contrast to the basic approach of the present.
- Vodafon has recently significantly changed its strategy and, in fact, is moving away from building macro networks to the strategy of small cells based on Wi-Fi technology and Femtocell, which is enough information on the Internet.
- Canadian company Shaw Communications acquired licenses for LTE back in 2008 in the AWS spectrum, but eventually, after a very detailed analysis of the business case and numerous tests, decided to abandon plans for the construction of the Advanced LTE network and, instead, begin to deploy the Wi network -Fi Mesh based on Cisco equipment. More like this here .
- The American operator Cox Communications, having spent more than half a billion dollars on licenses in the ASW spectrum for 3G and LTE and even deploying a 3G infrastructure, after several years also decided to go out of business, including owning 3G infrastructure. The operator has focused on Sprint Nextel’s mobile infrastructure reuse strategy and services for its subscribers. Details here .
- The cost of data transmission via Wi-Fi network is only about 10% of the same amount of expenses on 3G networks (according to information from one of the operator-customers of Aptilo). More information about the reasons for switching to offload mobile data traffic from 3G networks here .
- The use of Femtocell looks very attractive for many operators, especially since there is the possibility of implementing the concept of a self-organizing network in this case (when the femtobase connects to any Ethernet port with Internet access, and performs procedures not only accessing the operator's infrastructure, but also analyzing radio environment in order to normalize the level of radiated power relative to the levels of signals and frequency channels in the environment to minimize interference). But it is important not to forget that the femto device is, in fact, a mini-base station of 3G or 4G / LTE technology and requires a suitable radio interface from client devices for connection. From this it follows that for the mass of client devices, this service will be unavailable in the foreseeable future, as they are focused on Wi-Fi: for example, entry-level tablet computers or simply cheap models, reader books that have Wi-Fi radio, an absolute majority laptops also have only Wi-Fi interface, etc. All this leads to the fact that users will need an additional Wi-Fi device to provide the service, for example, an Access Point or a Router with Wi-Fi. And the speeds of 3G technologies and even LTE cannot be compared with the speeds obtained now on 802.11n devices and, especially, those speeds that will be available on compatible 802.11ac devices in the near future (more data on 802.11ac in my post on Habré here ).
- Having passed a serious way to analyze their business, the state and prospects of development of various technologies, the largest American operator ATT decided to scale the development of the Wi-Fi network as an additional for its 3G network. The company has acquired a company that owns a large number of Wi-Fi hotspots and now owns infrastructure from more than 20,000 hotspots. Currently, ATT uses Wi-Fi access not only as Wi-Fi, but also builds its strategy on large-scale mobile data traffic off-line from its 3G network. This significantly expands the capacity of the 3G network in places with a high concentration of mobile users. More information about ATT strategy, findings and plans in the article here .
Let's try to draw some conclusions from the marketing noise, the well-known practical information and data above:
1. One cannot do without any technology (or, perhaps, a group of such technologies) of small cells, since otherwise it would be physically impossible to meet the traffic needs of mobile data in the foreseeable future;
2. It is necessary to build additional networks of small cells that increase the capacity of the macro networks of mobile operators, with the main focus on providing coverage indoors;
3. Probably the most successful technology of small cells should be considered Wi-Fi, since:
- in the Russian Federation there is a conditionally unlicensed spectrum for indoor use in both 2.4GHz and 5GHz (let’s leave the topic of 2.4GHz spectral band congestion for now, because there are solutions that allow you to effectively use Wi-Fi networks in such conditions );
- 802.11n provides a wide bandwidth right now, and the compatible 802.11ac standard will further increase the bandwidth in the foreseeable future (although we can’t do without a real revision of our regulator’s 5GHz policy and we should do everything possible together to lobby for positive dynamics in this direction );
- Wi-Fi can already be integrated with the infrastructure of a mobile network. Networks with transparent authentication in the Wi-Fi network of subscribers with SIM cards on HLRs of mobile telecom operators, for example, ATT, have been working for quite a long time. Leading manufacturers of Wi-Fi solutions can create E2E solutions with integration into the mobile cortex, for example, solutions from Cisco Systems. Starting with 3GPP Rel.8, a Wi-Fi network can already be considered a trusted access type, provided that 802.1x authentication and 802.11i encryption are provided.
- in the future, variants of combined small Wi-Fi / Femto bases are possible, which a number of manufacturers are already engaged in and this will also add benefits from the use of these technologies in access.
I am convinced that the massive development of small cells is the right way and our operators need to move in this direction. What does a respected community think?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/140682/
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