About weather: hyper local forecast

Weather forecasting, as well as, in principle, predicting something that is difficult to follow the description of mathematical models - a complex computer task. However, the prediction of weather conditions, narrowed down to a specific location, region, city or square kilometer, as predicting risks to the population and infrastructure is a completely different task. It was precisely for its solution that IBM created the “hyper-local” forecasting system Deep Thunder .

The feature of Deep Thunder's “weather for tomorrow” is that, unlike external conditions that are significant for ordinary people, the system focuses on short-term forecasts, trying to predict everything from floods to fallen power lines in the time horizon of 84 hours.

Deep Thunder has been developed in the company's laboratories since 1996 and today is an indispensable tool of any local government, infrastructure company and other organizations whose activities may depend on the weather conditions in one way or another. For them, in fact, all the conditions have been created - unlike the traditional meteorological map, Deep Thunder can arrange the “weather” in pieces, displaying exactly the data that matter.
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Already, there was one buyer who was extremely interested in using Deep Thunder to better manage the infrastructure of the whole city: Rio de Janeiro. The authorities want to prepare as best they can for the 2014 FIFA World Cup and, of course, the 2016 games, which will also be held in the Brazilian capital.


^{Per-minute forecast of wind power and direction in lower Manhattan on March 13th, iOS interface}

In a recent demonstration to New York City managers, IBM specialists showed everything Deep Thunder can do to present data from the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn collects it from sensors on the ground, in the air, and from space by adding data to a mathematical model. All this is processed on a supercomputer (the word Deep in the title hints to us) and as a result appears to the user in the form of a three-dimensional cartographic grid, moving in the future tense. The NOAA ( National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ) organization even supports several weather models that are processed on a large cluster within IBM.

Using iOS and Android applications, you can track key weather indicators (as demonstrated in New York) and customize notifications about specific risks that occur in the desired location. One might think that there is nothing so special about this and, in principle, everyone who depends on the weather (this is a much larger number of people than it seems at first glance) one way or another follows its forecast. The difficulty is only in the fact that based on even such simple information as precipitation and temperature, it is sometimes difficult to draw a conclusion.

Let us take as an example the snowfalls, which often overload the infrastructure and cause cities to burst at the seams. Last January in New York it was snowing as much as in February Moscow, which is why the roads and airports stood for almost a day, but surprisingly, no damage was caused to power lines. All because there was almost no wind - and the snow did not stick to the wires. It is about such details that Deep Thunder is called upon to warn, after the user sorts out all that he needs to see.

The strength and direction of the wind is a parameter that does not interest us in everyday life, for others it is a vital factor. So, all types of high-altitude work are exposed to significant danger in a strong wind, and not only: “The difference in application conditions will change dramatically if we talk about John F. Kennedy Airport and La Guardia (the smaller airport in Queens New York), instead of Manhattan and Central Park "- explained Lloyd Treinish (Lloyd Treinish), the leader of the scientific group on the study of the environment in the laboratory named after Thomas Watson.

Using data generated and analyzed inside Deep Thunder, one can more deeply understand how the weather affects our environment as a whole and act accordingly, which may be even more important than just learning something: you can control forest fires, help people protect themselves in time. from a tsunami, storm, typhoon and something else that suddenly appeared on their doorstep. The weather doesn’t have to complicate our lives, on the contrary, it can serve us in the agricultural sector, which also remains dependent on rainfall and sunlight.

As I already mentioned, at first glance it seems that the weather does not affect anything, but in fact, it remains so difficult to predict that we simply obey it. But for our own normal existence, such solutions as Deep Thunder are being created, allowing us to learn more about what the weather will be like tomorrow.