Why do IT projects take 2-3 times longer than planned?
My friend and I decide to go on a hike from San Francisco to Los Angeles, to drop by to visit our friends on Newport Beach. Let's look at the map and roughly estimate the path along the coast:
The path will take about 400 miles, a day we can walk 4 miles per hour for ten hours, so we will arrive there in about 10 days. We call friends and book a table for 6 pm on Sunday.
')
The next day we get up early in the morning and enthusiastically set off in search of adventure. We pack our backpacks and start planning the next day. It is time to look at the local map. Oops:
It turns out that the route is simply teeming with turns and zigzags. For the first 40 miles, we can hardly reach Half Moon Bay. This trip will take at least 500, not 400 miles. We call friends and put off dinner until Tuesday. Better to be too much. They get upset, but they can't wait to meet. After all, 12 days on the road is not that bad either.
Having dealt with troubles, we set off. Two hours passed, and we barely passed the zoo. What's the matter? Let's look at the road:
How slow! Sand, water, steps and evil sea lions. We barely walk 2 miles per hour - twice as slowly as we had planned. It remains to either take 20 hours a day, or postpone a meeting with friends for the next week. Let's find a compromise: we will now go 12 hours a day and tell friends that everything is postponed until next weekend. We call and postpone dinner until next Sunday. They agree without much enthusiasm.
After a hard 12-hour day, we set up camp at Moss Beach. Damn, setting up a tent under the wind is not such an easy task. We lie down at midnight. Nothing: catch up tomorrow.
We wake up early, and we are tired and weary at 10 am. Heck! Now we definitely will not get our 12 hours. Today we will do 10, and tomorrow we will have 14. We take manatki and go.
After several barely stretching clocks, I notice that my friend began to limp. Opanki. We'll have to spend time on it right now ... We are not one of those who allow problems to grow into disasters. After a 45-minute run, I get to the pharmacy, buy a few patches and run back to my friend. I'm tired like a dog, the sun is already drooping, so perhaps it's enough for today. We lie down, having traveled just 6 miles in one day. But now we have fresh stocks. Everything will be fine. We will cover the difference tomorrow.
We wake up the next morning, correct our legs and move on. Making a turn. Oops. What is it?
On a stupid map, nothing like this is near! We have to deviate from the course for 3 miles to go around the fenced areas, get lost twice, and we return to the shore only at noon. Most of the day was spent on 1 mile advance. OK, we will not call our friends and put it off again. Instead, to keep up with the plan, we do not stop until midnight.
After a restless night in the fog, my friend wakes up with a terrible headache and heat. I ask - what about the forced march? “Are you an idiot? I walked for three days in a cold fog, let me rest! ”Well, today is lost. We'll have to stick and relax. Tomorrow we will quickly go through our 14 hours after such a rest ... Only a few days left, we will cope!
The next day we wake up lazily. I look at the map:
Holy shit! It's been 5 days out of 10, and we still have not left the bay area! This is some kind of hell. It’s time to determine an adequate time limit and really annoy your friends, but at least once and for all set yourself a realistic goal.
My friend says that since we traveled 40 miles in 4 days, and our route consists of at least 600 miles, it is 60 days, and with a margin of 70. “It can’t be like that ... Yes, I never went on this route, but I know that the journey from San Francisco to Los Angeles cannot take 70 days. If we say that we will not see each other until Easter, they will laugh in our face! ”
I continue. “If we try hard and start walking 16 hours a day, we can catch up!” It will be hard, but it's a crunch. Don't become limp! ”My friend replies,“ But it’s not my fault that you promised to come by Sunday. You yourself nakosyachil, and now on me also come off! ”
Then we go in silence. Nobody calls on the phone. Tomorrow my friend will come to his senses and give a normal assessment.
The next morning we do not leave the tent until the storm subsides. We pack things and go out at 10 am, with new calluses and abrasions. Nobody mentions yesterday’s quarrel, although I’m falling for my friend idiot when he forgets a bottle of water and we have to spend 30 minutes to get her back.
I note that we ran out of toilet paper - we should renew the stocks in the next city. On our way there is a stormy river. I feel an approaching attack of diarrhea ...
The path will take about 400 miles, a day we can walk 4 miles per hour for ten hours, so we will arrive there in about 10 days. We call friends and book a table for 6 pm on Sunday.
')
The next day we get up early in the morning and enthusiastically set off in search of adventure. We pack our backpacks and start planning the next day. It is time to look at the local map. Oops:
It turns out that the route is simply teeming with turns and zigzags. For the first 40 miles, we can hardly reach Half Moon Bay. This trip will take at least 500, not 400 miles. We call friends and put off dinner until Tuesday. Better to be too much. They get upset, but they can't wait to meet. After all, 12 days on the road is not that bad either.
Having dealt with troubles, we set off. Two hours passed, and we barely passed the zoo. What's the matter? Let's look at the road:
How slow! Sand, water, steps and evil sea lions. We barely walk 2 miles per hour - twice as slowly as we had planned. It remains to either take 20 hours a day, or postpone a meeting with friends for the next week. Let's find a compromise: we will now go 12 hours a day and tell friends that everything is postponed until next weekend. We call and postpone dinner until next Sunday. They agree without much enthusiasm.
After a hard 12-hour day, we set up camp at Moss Beach. Damn, setting up a tent under the wind is not such an easy task. We lie down at midnight. Nothing: catch up tomorrow.
We wake up early, and we are tired and weary at 10 am. Heck! Now we definitely will not get our 12 hours. Today we will do 10, and tomorrow we will have 14. We take manatki and go.
After several barely stretching clocks, I notice that my friend began to limp. Opanki. We'll have to spend time on it right now ... We are not one of those who allow problems to grow into disasters. After a 45-minute run, I get to the pharmacy, buy a few patches and run back to my friend. I'm tired like a dog, the sun is already drooping, so perhaps it's enough for today. We lie down, having traveled just 6 miles in one day. But now we have fresh stocks. Everything will be fine. We will cover the difference tomorrow.
We wake up the next morning, correct our legs and move on. Making a turn. Oops. What is it?
On a stupid map, nothing like this is near! We have to deviate from the course for 3 miles to go around the fenced areas, get lost twice, and we return to the shore only at noon. Most of the day was spent on 1 mile advance. OK, we will not call our friends and put it off again. Instead, to keep up with the plan, we do not stop until midnight.
After a restless night in the fog, my friend wakes up with a terrible headache and heat. I ask - what about the forced march? “Are you an idiot? I walked for three days in a cold fog, let me rest! ”Well, today is lost. We'll have to stick and relax. Tomorrow we will quickly go through our 14 hours after such a rest ... Only a few days left, we will cope!
The next day we wake up lazily. I look at the map:
Holy shit! It's been 5 days out of 10, and we still have not left the bay area! This is some kind of hell. It’s time to determine an adequate time limit and really annoy your friends, but at least once and for all set yourself a realistic goal.
My friend says that since we traveled 40 miles in 4 days, and our route consists of at least 600 miles, it is 60 days, and with a margin of 70. “It can’t be like that ... Yes, I never went on this route, but I know that the journey from San Francisco to Los Angeles cannot take 70 days. If we say that we will not see each other until Easter, they will laugh in our face! ”
I continue. “If we try hard and start walking 16 hours a day, we can catch up!” It will be hard, but it's a crunch. Don't become limp! ”My friend replies,“ But it’s not my fault that you promised to come by Sunday. You yourself nakosyachil, and now on me also come off! ”
Then we go in silence. Nobody calls on the phone. Tomorrow my friend will come to his senses and give a normal assessment.
The next morning we do not leave the tent until the storm subsides. We pack things and go out at 10 am, with new calluses and abrasions. Nobody mentions yesterday’s quarrel, although I’m falling for my friend idiot when he forgets a bottle of water and we have to spend 30 minutes to get her back.
I note that we ran out of toilet paper - we should renew the stocks in the next city. On our way there is a stormy river. I feel an approaching attack of diarrhea ...
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/137519/
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