IT development for the next 15-20 years: carriers can be forgotten

Lyrical introduction

So, probably I have already tried to tell many people about the development of IT, but, in many cases, the conversation was not constructive.
Today I will try again.

A bit of nostalgia: early 2000s

Recall the level of informatization about 10 years ago: 2001, only recently released a line of Intel Pentium 4 processors, which was considered a truly technological breakthrough. Switched connections began to slowly die out, giving way to local networks and ADSL.
For many gamers, the year was also important: games such as Grand Theft Auto III, Diablo II: Lord of Destruction, Devil May Cry, Truckers-2 came out. Having a 256 kilobit / s allocation at home and a user with a Pentium 4 and a gigabyte of RAM, you considered yourself the owner of the coolest computer. The Livejournal blog service has just started, social networks have not yet “leaked” into our bright minds. World wide web, having just taken the baton after the FTN-networks, held ever stronger positions, soon completely replacing the echoes. But let's not talk about sad things.
It takes only some 10 years, and the result of progress is evident. What result? Perhaps you yourself can make some conclusions for yourself by making a comparison.

Overall picture

From the memories of a decade ago, back in today. So let's imagine that a time machine was invented right now and now, that we can go into the future right now.
The fifth generation wireless communication is walking through the air, which, quite possibly, will be transmitted not from the base station to the client, but as a peering network. Do you have a connection? Share it with others.
Social networks will become an integral part of your life. If now they can still be abandoned, then in the future it will become almost impossible. They will be tied up with everything: work, study, shopping, chatting with friends, credit cards, dating, web applications, without which it will be difficult to live. Social networks will completely replace Instant Messaging, which means the complete death of ICQ and other IM. Having access to the Internet and remaining anonymous at the same time will become almost impossible. New authorization tools will appear, possibly based on public keys. Cloud computing will become something mundane and vital.
A regular mobile phone in its main assignment will become very rare: when you can still meet a person who uses a cellular phone for calls and messages, in the future it is possible that the main function will be performed by the network.
Voice communication will be transmitted via Skype or similar technologies: with the development of wireless networks, ordinary GSM will become irrelevant.
The situation in the mobile market will change, but not as much as you might think. "Iron" communicators will reach a certain mark, it is quite possible, almost catching up with modern by today's standards personalki.
Cash will be in demand only from the older generation, less and less cash shops will be found.

Gaming, home and office PCs will be the same

Yes, exactly as you have read, all the “user” PCs will become approximately the same. The market for personal and office computers will, of course, change, but not as much as one might imagine. Home computers will be
serve only as a "thin client" with the operating system, and everything else will be in the "clouds". It will be much more difficult to lose your data: now the role of file storage will be performed by remote servers, whose services will become so cheap by that moment that they will cost less than HDD and SSD.
Most will use tablet PCs: they are much more convenient than laptops, and connecting to the network ... Well, you get the idea.
All (or almost all) software will be executed on the side, i.e. using cloud computing and / or web technologies.
')

Server

The largest video chip manufacturers in the large-scale mode will produce special server video cards that will be used by game distributors. Already there is an on-live gaming service, about which I wrote a little earlier.
Compared with today, the number of cores in processors will increase significantly, thanks to nanotechnologies. However, the frequencies in them will not increase much: it is possible that quantum or optical processors will come to replace them.

Carriers

It is possible, as stated above, the media will not be as relevant as today. Firstly, the cost of solid-state carriers will drop dramatically, and secondly, their volume will increase by two or three times by that time, thirdly, they will most likely be used by few, due to cheap or even free cloud file storage. Remember how fifteen years ago there were no free mail servers? Perhaps there will be the same.

Free software

Open Source will take a more powerful audience, only because of the spread of cloud computing. After all, what's the difference, on what to look at the result of the tasks performed in the "clouds", isn't it? It is possible that the open source will be divided into two parts: the first will be related to conservative developers who do not recognize the storage of data on network storages, and the second part will be modern, supporting modern trends in technology development. As you know, Richard Stallman is categorically against "cloud computing", but they will play a huge role in the life of GNU / Linux, thereby leaving a huge piece of cake for him in the market of operating systems and software.

the Internet

Of course, it will be more than today. All sites and services will be closely tied social networks, up to credit cards.
Very slowly, but almost everyone will switch to IPv6, thereby expanding the network to infinity. External address will now be virtually every device included in the network.
Search engines will become smarter with the development of cybernetics, ranking of search queries will become much more efficient, finding information will become easier and faster. Things like voice search will become more popular and effective.

Piracy

As for piracy, it will become unprofitable and will almost disappear. Already, many people use online services and game distributors (for example, On-Live, Orign or Steam) for everyday needs and have forgotten what discs are. Piracy will lose its meaning. For example, games will no longer be sold in the form of discs with a game: you can only subscribe to them at the game distributor and play. Games will be run on servers, and the end user will only receive image and sound. So that.

Frames

IT will become even more professional than it is now: enikeyschik will almost disappear as a class. IT departments will take over either large independent companies, the rest will use IT outsourcing services.

Education

IT education, like education in general, will change dramatically. All employers and universities will get used to the Bologna process, being a bachelor soon will not be so bad. Finding a job in IT without higher education will be almost impossible, so
how information technology will go far ahead. Evening and correspondence departments of universities will soon be closed, replacing the distance learning network.

Impact on life in general

Based on all the above written, it is easy to conclude: information technology does not stand still, developing as a living organism. Mobile Internet will become the most common means of data transfer, phones will be able to recognize faces and search for these people in social networks, everyone will forget about anonymity. Money, CDs, passports and even your data - all this, after some 10-15 years, will completely go online, and the average person will have nothing left to do to trust third parties.