Will 3D printing change the world?
“Technologies, potential and effects of additive production”, - the article under this heading was published by the Strategic Foresight Initiative. This organization was created to analyze the potential consequences of long-term global trends, revolutionary changes and upheavals that may occur in the world. Over the past six years, the Strategic Forecasts Initiative, in conjunction with the US National Intelligence Council, has published reports with a forecast of long-term trends until 2025–2030. This time they pay attention to 3D printing and other methods of the so-called additive manufacturing (AP, additive manufacturing).
According to researchers, the AP can radically change society and the global economy. In terms of impact, this can be compared with the invention of a steam engine, a light bulb, atomic energy, or a microchip. And right now, in their opinion, the technology is “ready for take-off”, and in the next decade a sharp increase in the use of 3D printing in the industry will begin.
The report briefly reviews existing additive manufacturing technologies and their current uses. The authors note that initially AP was used for rapid prototyping, that is, the rapid production of conceptual models and prototypes. But with the improvement of materials and process technology, the AP technology was transferred first to the creation of parts for functional testing, then to the creation of parts for presses and other tools of industrial production and, finally, directly to industrial production. In 2009, according to studies, 16% of the AP devices were used directly for the manufacture of parts, 21% for functional modeling, and 23% for the creation of tools.
Evaluation and forecast of revenues (in millions of US dollars) from AP products and services
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Now there are several "success stories", that is, such areas where the AP is successfully used for the manufacture of parts:
Among the existing limitations of the AP, the poor choice of materials used and the low speed of 3D printing (several dozen cubic centimeters per hour) are called. According to the authors of the study, these restrictions are temporary and can be considered either insignificant or avoidable in the future.
But the potential of technology is truly difficult to overestimate. Mass production can be transformed beyond recognition: for many products, standard conveyors can be greatly reduced or completely replaced by 3D printers, because the final product - for example, a car - will be assembled not from hundreds and thousands of individual parts, but within one process. This will affect many manufacturers and suppliers — many factories around the world that manufacture parts for a given conveyor.
Globalization will change its face. The movement of goods will not take place in the physical world (on barges, containers and wagons), but on the Internet - in the form of digital files and 3D models. As an e-mail, you can forward it to the other end of the world and print it in 2D, the file of the three-dimensional model STL can be sent and printed on a 3D printer, having received the original device. STL files will be created either by 3D scanning of the originals, or designed by designers in 3D modeling packages.
In some cases, printing a couple of hundred iPhones of the latest model for the villagers will be easier and cheaper on a local printer than to produce millions of devices in China, transport them across the ocean, and then ensure delivery to a given location away from large distribution centers. Due to the localization of production in the future, the current exporting countries whose exports exceed imports, such as Germany, Japan and China, may suffer. The importing countries (USA) will win, as well as countries with a large domestic market (USA) and countries with great potential for the export of intellectual products (again the USA). In general, researchers believe, due to the proliferation of three-dimensional printing, the United States can regain its former influence in the global economy, industry, the intellectual property market, design, innovation and export of intellectual products.
Despite the improvement in the foreign trade balance due to the localization of production in some of the countries listed above, which benefit from the introduction of the AP, such a transformation of the economy can lead to political destabilization due to rising unemployment. But in the same US, experts say, this trend can be offset by the aging population and the natural reduction in the number of working-age population. In addition, the AP itself will create a new industry with a turnover of hundreds of billions of dollars, which will require specialists of new professions (more 3D designers, programmers, engineers, printer developers, factories for the production of printers and packaging consumables).
In the future, AP devices will be able to work with a large number of various materials without complicated reconfiguration. But the key technologies that in the coming years will provide a breakthrough of the AP will be two:
Thus, the 3D printing revolution is going on both at the top level and at the bottom level, which promises convergence in the middle.
Another important value of the AP is to stimulate the process that many have been talking about recently: this is the convergence of technical disciplines, especially the NBIC quadruples (nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information technologies, cognitive science).
via Bruce Sterling
According to researchers, the AP can radically change society and the global economy. In terms of impact, this can be compared with the invention of a steam engine, a light bulb, atomic energy, or a microchip. And right now, in their opinion, the technology is “ready for take-off”, and in the next decade a sharp increase in the use of 3D printing in the industry will begin.
The report briefly reviews existing additive manufacturing technologies and their current uses. The authors note that initially AP was used for rapid prototyping, that is, the rapid production of conceptual models and prototypes. But with the improvement of materials and process technology, the AP technology was transferred first to the creation of parts for functional testing, then to the creation of parts for presses and other tools of industrial production and, finally, directly to industrial production. In 2009, according to studies, 16% of the AP devices were used directly for the manufacture of parts, 21% for functional modeling, and 23% for the creation of tools.
Evaluation and forecast of revenues (in millions of US dollars) from AP products and services
')
Now there are several "success stories", that is, such areas where the AP is successfully used for the manufacture of parts:
- automotive parts , for example, some parts of the Formula-1 engine are manufactured by direct laser firing on metal;
- details of the aircraft , for example, a tube for the F-18 fighter / attack aircraft environmental control system;
- individual orthodontics : Align Technology uses AP to create accurate individual dental brackets for hundreds of thousands of patients around the world using stereolithography from 3D scans of the oral cavity; the FDA-approved polymer is used as the material for the braces;
- individual hearing devices : manufactured by Siemens and Phonak based on a 3D scan of the ear canal, so that the device is ideal for the user and almost imperceptible.
Among the existing limitations of the AP, the poor choice of materials used and the low speed of 3D printing (several dozen cubic centimeters per hour) are called. According to the authors of the study, these restrictions are temporary and can be considered either insignificant or avoidable in the future.
But the potential of technology is truly difficult to overestimate. Mass production can be transformed beyond recognition: for many products, standard conveyors can be greatly reduced or completely replaced by 3D printers, because the final product - for example, a car - will be assembled not from hundreds and thousands of individual parts, but within one process. This will affect many manufacturers and suppliers — many factories around the world that manufacture parts for a given conveyor.
Globalization will change its face. The movement of goods will not take place in the physical world (on barges, containers and wagons), but on the Internet - in the form of digital files and 3D models. As an e-mail, you can forward it to the other end of the world and print it in 2D, the file of the three-dimensional model STL can be sent and printed on a 3D printer, having received the original device. STL files will be created either by 3D scanning of the originals, or designed by designers in 3D modeling packages.
In some cases, printing a couple of hundred iPhones of the latest model for the villagers will be easier and cheaper on a local printer than to produce millions of devices in China, transport them across the ocean, and then ensure delivery to a given location away from large distribution centers. Due to the localization of production in the future, the current exporting countries whose exports exceed imports, such as Germany, Japan and China, may suffer. The importing countries (USA) will win, as well as countries with a large domestic market (USA) and countries with great potential for the export of intellectual products (again the USA). In general, researchers believe, due to the proliferation of three-dimensional printing, the United States can regain its former influence in the global economy, industry, the intellectual property market, design, innovation and export of intellectual products.
Despite the improvement in the foreign trade balance due to the localization of production in some of the countries listed above, which benefit from the introduction of the AP, such a transformation of the economy can lead to political destabilization due to rising unemployment. But in the same US, experts say, this trend can be offset by the aging population and the natural reduction in the number of working-age population. In addition, the AP itself will create a new industry with a turnover of hundreds of billions of dollars, which will require specialists of new professions (more 3D designers, programmers, engineers, printer developers, factories for the production of printers and packaging consumables).
In the future, AP devices will be able to work with a large number of various materials without complicated reconfiguration. But the key technologies that in the coming years will provide a breakthrough of the AP will be two:
- Direct AP metal components . Significant progress has been made in this area over the past five years. Engineers can now manufacture components from titanium and some metal alloys based on 3D models as part of the AP process, and these parts are not inferior in many ways to their counterparts made in the traditional way. With the improvement of this technology, we will see an increasing introduction of AP in the industry.
- Desktop 3D printers . While the direct AP of metal parts will revolutionize the industry, desktop 3D printers reduce the price barrier for this technology and make it accessible to every user. Thanks to expired patents and technologies that have passed into the public domain, as well as open source projects, today the AP device can be purchased for only $ 1,000. Due to such a low starting price, interest in 3D printing has grown dramatically lately, as more and more fans are joining a new hobby. In this sense, 3D printing is now at about the same stage as the first Apple I computers, after which the mass market for personal computers appeared.
Thus, the 3D printing revolution is going on both at the top level and at the bottom level, which promises convergence in the middle.
Another important value of the AP is to stimulate the process that many have been talking about recently: this is the convergence of technical disciplines, especially the NBIC quadruples (nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information technologies, cognitive science).
via Bruce Sterling
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/131308/
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