Analysts predict the "death" of fixed communication in 15 years. Again

In 2007, 64% of our compatriots noted the “uselessness” of fixed-line communications (Superjob).
4 years later, the figure has risen to 85%, (Cominfo Consulting).

And here the concrete figures of crowding out fixed communications by mobile technologies have become known.

The analytical portal TelecomDaily gives traditional telephony 10-15 years, after which, according to researchers, it will be supplanted by IP technology.
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Almost as much was prepared “fix” on NAG.ru. According to estimates, Wanderer_From in 2017 in the United States and 2027 - in Russia, traditional telephony will completely outlive itself in favor of mobile communications and VOIP.

An article on NAG fits the segment dynamics to the general theory of the product life cycle , supporting the model with statistical data on the rates of technology substitution. According to the article, about three years ago, the Russian fixed-line market experienced a maturity phase and moved to saturation.

Speaking about the corporate sector, one should make remarks:

• Conservatism of corporations. If earlier technologies were moving from business to retail, becoming more affordable, today we are seeing a reverse trend - new services are running in the mass market, after which companies also start looking at them.
• Requirements for reliability, continuity and quality. This aspect was examined in detail by the ComNews columnist, and one cannot disagree with it - financial institutions, large industrial holdings, state institutions and various categories of “special services” are extremely critical in transmitting sensitive information “over the air”.
• "Office" phone options - the possibility of forwarding, receiving a fax and so on. Despite appearing many years ago and actively promoted by us the same solutions for the "replacement" of fixed phones with mobile phones, they almost never find interest. These are mostly niche solutions - for “remote” workers, and temporary projects - for the time being, while “wires” are being built. One of the few Success Stories is a client with a staff of 200+ people, hooked on a “ mobile office ” and not having any difficulties with “QoS”. Client profile - project management.

It is possible to make a remark, they say, 15 years - a sufficient period of time for the “enlightenment” of companies-reactionaries, and for the development of technology. But almost a decade has been spoken about the "death of fixed line". The first mention of the fact that mobile communications can oust fixed in our country appeared in 2002.

A few years later, bolder theses began to appear about, of course, a smooth replacement of technologies. In Google, by the request “ mobile connection is replacing the fixed one ”, you can trace the geography of “crowding out”, the headlines of the news are like carbon copies, just substitute the necessary region:
2004 - Europe
2004 - India
2005 - United States
2006 - Eastern Europe
2008 - Russia
2009 - Tatarstan

Interestingly, in the 2008th cautious "may" and "gradually" are replaced by "as is well known" mobile communication replaces the fixed.

For reasons identified different:

• increasing the "availability" of mobile communication (and in the opposite direction - tariff reforms in the local communication market)
• increase subscriber availability
• "Multifunctionality" of cell phones (including the ability to access the Internet)
• and even the economic benefits of deploying wireless networks over fixed ones (for example, Rostelecom intends to replace fixed communications in villages with mobile CDMA)

Well, wait and see.

For the time being, we will be preparing a new “table of unfulfilled forecasts”.
Wireless Internet researchers have not met their expectations:



Maybe "telephonists" more perspicacious?