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Analysts predict the "death" of fixed communication in 15 years. Again

In 2007, 64% of our compatriots noted the “uselessness” of fixed-line communications (Superjob).

4 years later, the figure has risen to 85%, (Cominfo Consulting).



And here the concrete figures of crowding out fixed communications by mobile technologies have become known.



The analytical portal TelecomDaily gives traditional telephony 10-15 years, after which, according to researchers, it will be supplanted by IP technology.

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Almost as much was prepared “fix” on NAG.ru. According to estimates, Wanderer_From in 2017 in the United States and 2027 - in Russia, traditional telephony will completely outlive itself in favor of mobile communications and VOIP.



An article on NAG fits the segment dynamics to the general theory of the product life cycle , supporting the model with statistical data on the rates of technology substitution. According to the article, about three years ago, the Russian fixed-line market experienced a maturity phase and moved to saturation.



Speaking about the corporate sector, one should make remarks:

It is possible to make a remark, they say, 15 years - a sufficient period of time for the “enlightenment” of companies-reactionaries, and for the development of technology. But almost a decade has been spoken about the "death of fixed line". The first mention of the fact that mobile communications can oust fixed in our country appeared in 2002.



A few years later, bolder theses began to appear about, of course, a smooth replacement of technologies. In Google, by the request “ mobile connection is replacing the fixed one ”, you can trace the geography of “crowding out”, the headlines of the news are like carbon copies, just substitute the necessary region:

2004 - Europe

2004 - India

2005 - United States

2006 - Eastern Europe

2008 - Russia

2009 - Tatarstan



Interestingly, in the 2008th cautious "may" and "gradually" are replaced by "as is well known" mobile communication replaces the fixed.



For reasons identified different:Well, wait and see.



For the time being, we will be preparing a new “table of unfulfilled forecasts”.

Wireless Internet researchers have not met their expectations:







Maybe "telephonists" more perspicacious?

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/128871/



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