World crisis and it sector

When I wrote previous articles about the crisis a couple of months ago, the very idea of ​​it had not yet penetrated the masses. No, there are many experts who have been writing about him for quite some time. But now they started talking about him a lot and everywhere, which means the situation is becoming more and more serious. Pessimism reigned in the markets, the economic indicators of the leading countries are worsening , in Europe Greece feverishly tries to get new loans to pay off old ones, and the talk that this is its default is inevitable becoming louder. And this morning Standard & Poor's lowered Italy's credit rating from A + to A, and the outlook to negative.
Against this background, the “fruit company” stands out nicely, which surpassed the recent years leader ExxonMobil (the largest oil refining company in the world) by capitalization. This, of course, pleases adherents of the “new economy” theory, who are mistaken in the belief that it and the high-tech sector will bypass the crisis.

In general, the it revolution differs from previous technological breakthroughs in that it did not bring fundamental changes to the “old, traditional economy” as it happened before it. The conveyor changed industrial production making it relatively cheap. Machines and pesticides changed agriculture by making food production in quantities sufficient for a growing population of the world largely independent of natural conditions. Industrial production and refining of oil have changed the availability of energy and the production of artificial materials. Its influence on traditional economics was concentrated in marketing and management without having made a qualitative breakthrough in basic industrial processes and failed to significantly reduce their prices.

Instead, there are new industries involved in the storage, transmission and processing of information. The “new economy” was born, but did not become independent from the old one and did not merge with it, taking it to a new level. This is more like an additional floor of a house built on old walls. New tenants are still happy about new apartments with Euro-renovation, but the sewage system broke through in the basement, the water in the faucet goes through once, and the foundation went cracks.
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Some in the new economy are engaged in selling, advertising and marketing the products of the old. Others help her in organizing production processes. Still others concentrated on meeting our hedonistic needs. All the heroes of our time who grew up on the increased demand and consumption of the last decades, which in turn was a consequence of reygonomics with its non-stop lending - all of them are connected with the old economy by a thick chain. I believe that to consider them in isolation is wrong. Our top floor with you will not be long without walls and foundations.

This is clearly seen in the example of mobile advertising: a study conducted by comScore shows that consumer discretionary (luxury goods: cars, clothes, services) and consumer staples (constant goods: food, medicines, etc.) account for 30% of advertising. Another 8% for finance and industry.



The main part of it falls on the products themselves new economy. Of course, mobile advertising is not the entire it-sector, but the data in my opinion is indicative.

The world economy is slowly stagnating in recent months. Even with the constant “revision” of official statistics. The it sector seemed to stand out positively against this background, but then it came to market research on it services from the consulting agency Ovum and it turned out that not everything is so smooth in the Danish kingdom:

“Analysts recorded a significant decline in demand for IT services in Q2 2011. North America showed the weakest indicators - its share in the global IT services market in the private sector decreased from 39% to 15.5%.”

“The sum of all contracts for the provision of IT services and equipment supply in the world in Q2 2011 decreased by 40% compared to the same period last year to a minimum value in the last 8 years.”

“The results at the beginning of this year were disappointing. And now, in the second quarter, the situation, which we thought was bad, has become even worse, ”says Ovum analyst Ed Thomas. - The volume of contracts and their number does not bode well. As a result of reduced demand from private companies, especially in the United States, and the absence of large agreements, the market sank significantly. At the same time, the public sector, which is characterized by large sums, did not help either. ”

The phrase “reducing demand” is the key - without the credit supply of the last decades, this demand in all sectors of the economy will fall for a long time despite all efforts to support it.

Another popular opinion about the high-tech sector is that it is he who will save us all from the crisis. The economist Alfred Kleinknecht, for example, analyzed the number of patents granted between 1901 and 2005 and found out that there are clear innovation surges in periods of economic depression.



But despite this, economic growth in America after the Great Depression began precisely with the Second World War. The huge military machine in the 40s-45s, access to new markets after the victory of the coalition, and the emergence of the dollar as a world currency became the basis of America’s economic prosperity of the 20th century. Therefore, I would not overestimate the role of innovation in the coming crisis.

I would like to finish on some positive note, but statistics is a stubborn thing, and so far there is no reason for optimism. However, who warned, he is armed.