NSPK: injured and winners
Today I would like to discuss the project of creating in Russia the “National Payment Card System”, implemented as part of the “Universal e-card” project. Although it’s too early to talk directly about these cards, it’s more important now to understand who will win and who will lose by leaving Visa and MasterCard from the Russian market.
And why should they leave at all?
Honestly, I myself have repeatedly asked this question. After all, NSPK was originally created as an alternative to global payment systems. But, as is often the case with us, in the end, such a good idea at first glance turned into something else. It's all about the bill "On the National Payment System", which can be adopted today. I will not go into details with which you can familiarize yourself on WikiLeaks, I will only say that the two ways that the lawmakers provided Visa and MasterCard either make their work impossible or unprofitable. The head of the MasterCard representative office in Russia, Ilya Ryaby, has already stated that "the adoption of the draft law in this form will lead to the isolation of Russia and the termination of the provision of a number of services to clients."
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Iron curtain?
You do not need to be clairvoyant to understand that if the international payment systems leave the Russian market, Russia, and in particular its citizens, will find themselves in some kind of economic isolation. It is quite simple to explain: no one abroad will accept NSPK cards. At least in the near future. This is not even a guess, it is based on the experience of other CIS countries. So, in Ukraine there is NSMEP, which has been operating since 2003. Have you heard of this ever? Or here, the same “Golden Crown”. No doubt, the system is comfortable. But only for payments within Russia. Consequently, in the case of the adoption of the draft law in its current form, Russians will be deprived of the opportunity not only to use payment cards when traveling abroad, but also to use most of the world's Internet services.
Who exactly will suffer?
First of all, the so-called ebay'ery, to which the author applies. Agree, all world EPS, most foreign shops and merchants accept either PayPal (which is based on the use of bank cards) or Visa and MasterCard cards themselves. Of course, some, mostly Chinese, stores accept WiredTransfer, but in this case, no one will guarantee not that the efficiency of the goods received, but in general, sending it.
By the way, all gamers playing on official servers, all who actively use the paid features of Skype and similar programs, this also applies.
Secondly, these are freelancers. You must admit that most of us accept payment for our services using Webmoney, Yandex.Money and other EPS. It is convenient, it is safe, it is fast. It would seem, how these EPS are connected with bank cards? In fact, directly: of course, you can pay for the Internet with the same WM, but not the products in the store. Accordingly, they must somehow be removed from the system. This is where bank cards come to the rescue. There is no them - Webmoney turn into almost useless (in real life) candy wrappers. Of course, the residents of the capital will suffer the least in this case: they, at least, have withdrawal points. In smaller cities there are none.
In the third, Chinese sellers and manufacturers. I understand it sounds strange. But you must admit: Russia, although not the main market for Chinese selling online, is one of the largest. If they lose it, revenues will fall by 30 percent. As proof, I can cite Aliexpress, where most of the registered users are either from the US or from Russia. Or the famous Pandawill store, which even made the Russian version of the site, and created the Russian-language support.
For whom nothing will change?
Just for those 80% of users who use their card exclusively for salary withdrawals. Most will be deeply without any difference, withdraw money from Visa or from NSPK. For them, nothing will change.
Who won?
In any situation, except the injured party will be the winner. I will not speak about the NSPK shareholders themselves, everything is clear here. But the following categories of citizens will benefit:
- Mediators. It is those who are now helping PayPal merchants from the CIS. For them, the work will increase.
- Exchangers. Of course, in the event that they will be engaged in cashing electronic money. However, it must be assumed that the commission for this operation will increase significantly.
- Offline stores. Those who have now gone entirely to ebay and other sites will return, because online trading will be closed to them. There are no comments here.
- Local marketplaces. For example, Hammer. Where to go to people, in the case of inaccessibility of ebay, because it is physically impossible to buy many goods in Russia?
But what about banks?
In this case, not everything is completely clear. On the one hand, those who join UEC will be more likely to gain in the end. But on the other hand, the construction of clearing centers requires investment. Great investment. Plus, you should not forget that if the draft law is adopted in its current form, Visa and MasterCard will remain in Russia for just a year, and in fact many customers have cards that expire in 2-3 years. In this case, not to exclude massive claims in the banks.
And what to do?
Of course, in the modern world, complete isolation is impossible. Intermediaries will remain, the possibility of receiving normal cards in foreign banks will remain (such services are currently provided by the Payoneer payment system). But in the end, the final cost of the purchased product will increase by 15-20%, at the expense of commissions, and others. So, it will not be so profitable to buy on the Internet and vice versa to receive money for the services provided.
PS Naturally, this article is my personal vision of the situation, and expresses my personal opinion. How it will be in fact not known to anyone. As they say, wait and see.
And why should they leave at all?
Honestly, I myself have repeatedly asked this question. After all, NSPK was originally created as an alternative to global payment systems. But, as is often the case with us, in the end, such a good idea at first glance turned into something else. It's all about the bill "On the National Payment System", which can be adopted today. I will not go into details with which you can familiarize yourself on WikiLeaks, I will only say that the two ways that the lawmakers provided Visa and MasterCard either make their work impossible or unprofitable. The head of the MasterCard representative office in Russia, Ilya Ryaby, has already stated that "the adoption of the draft law in this form will lead to the isolation of Russia and the termination of the provision of a number of services to clients."
')
Iron curtain?
You do not need to be clairvoyant to understand that if the international payment systems leave the Russian market, Russia, and in particular its citizens, will find themselves in some kind of economic isolation. It is quite simple to explain: no one abroad will accept NSPK cards. At least in the near future. This is not even a guess, it is based on the experience of other CIS countries. So, in Ukraine there is NSMEP, which has been operating since 2003. Have you heard of this ever? Or here, the same “Golden Crown”. No doubt, the system is comfortable. But only for payments within Russia. Consequently, in the case of the adoption of the draft law in its current form, Russians will be deprived of the opportunity not only to use payment cards when traveling abroad, but also to use most of the world's Internet services.
Who exactly will suffer?
First of all, the so-called ebay'ery, to which the author applies. Agree, all world EPS, most foreign shops and merchants accept either PayPal (which is based on the use of bank cards) or Visa and MasterCard cards themselves. Of course, some, mostly Chinese, stores accept WiredTransfer, but in this case, no one will guarantee not that the efficiency of the goods received, but in general, sending it.
By the way, all gamers playing on official servers, all who actively use the paid features of Skype and similar programs, this also applies.
Secondly, these are freelancers. You must admit that most of us accept payment for our services using Webmoney, Yandex.Money and other EPS. It is convenient, it is safe, it is fast. It would seem, how these EPS are connected with bank cards? In fact, directly: of course, you can pay for the Internet with the same WM, but not the products in the store. Accordingly, they must somehow be removed from the system. This is where bank cards come to the rescue. There is no them - Webmoney turn into almost useless (in real life) candy wrappers. Of course, the residents of the capital will suffer the least in this case: they, at least, have withdrawal points. In smaller cities there are none.
In the third, Chinese sellers and manufacturers. I understand it sounds strange. But you must admit: Russia, although not the main market for Chinese selling online, is one of the largest. If they lose it, revenues will fall by 30 percent. As proof, I can cite Aliexpress, where most of the registered users are either from the US or from Russia. Or the famous Pandawill store, which even made the Russian version of the site, and created the Russian-language support.
For whom nothing will change?
Just for those 80% of users who use their card exclusively for salary withdrawals. Most will be deeply without any difference, withdraw money from Visa or from NSPK. For them, nothing will change.
Who won?
In any situation, except the injured party will be the winner. I will not speak about the NSPK shareholders themselves, everything is clear here. But the following categories of citizens will benefit:
- Mediators. It is those who are now helping PayPal merchants from the CIS. For them, the work will increase.
- Exchangers. Of course, in the event that they will be engaged in cashing electronic money. However, it must be assumed that the commission for this operation will increase significantly.
- Offline stores. Those who have now gone entirely to ebay and other sites will return, because online trading will be closed to them. There are no comments here.
- Local marketplaces. For example, Hammer. Where to go to people, in the case of inaccessibility of ebay, because it is physically impossible to buy many goods in Russia?
But what about banks?
In this case, not everything is completely clear. On the one hand, those who join UEC will be more likely to gain in the end. But on the other hand, the construction of clearing centers requires investment. Great investment. Plus, you should not forget that if the draft law is adopted in its current form, Visa and MasterCard will remain in Russia for just a year, and in fact many customers have cards that expire in 2-3 years. In this case, not to exclude massive claims in the banks.
And what to do?
Of course, in the modern world, complete isolation is impossible. Intermediaries will remain, the possibility of receiving normal cards in foreign banks will remain (such services are currently provided by the Payoneer payment system). But in the end, the final cost of the purchased product will increase by 15-20%, at the expense of commissions, and others. So, it will not be so profitable to buy on the Internet and vice versa to receive money for the services provided.
PS Naturally, this article is my personal vision of the situation, and expresses my personal opinion. How it will be in fact not known to anyone. As they say, wait and see.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/120373/
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