Come on! Buy one!

A year and a half ago, I was lucky to get a job at an investment company that dealt with securities of the primary and secondary markets. Prospects seemed the most beautiful, but the reality responded with a callus from the handset on the right ear.

Then I said that the numbers show “interesting growth,” and it seemed that “the economy is recovering.” Today I understand that the more people blow in one tune, the faster everyone starts to dance to her.

The 2011 tune is called IPO , and too many people want to hear its music today.
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"Talking numbers"

What you see at the top translates into human language, as "soon the securities markets will be seized with technological fever". What is old Dow trying to tell us?

25% increase in the number of exits of private companies to the stock exchange, compared with 2009. It is this line that most analysts and players of the stock market warm themselves today. Growth is their bread, and butter is the details.

Last year, 46 companies that had venture financing behind them successfully entered into an open listing, collecting a total of $ 3.4 billion. For comparison, the figures for 2009: 8 companies, $ 903 million.

514 companies that have achieved liquidity (a broad concept in literary circles, implying not only a break-even point, but also a takeover) in 2010, have buried more than $ 39 billion in their offices.

Looks solid? Against the background of 2007, when there were 613 such companies, not so much. Is it really so welcoming or not? Analysts confidently say “Yes!”, Showing us other numbers and hinting that “there is always a calm before the storm”.



Another picture performed by Mr. Jones gracefully emphasizes that "the numbers are bigger."

Firstly, the number of acquisitions by technology companies has decreased, compared with previous periods, by 7%. Plus, IPO volumes are getting bigger, which means the pieces are fatter. Last year, companies received 72% more money than in 2009. Let it be only a paltry $ 39 billion, not $ 70 billion, as it was in 2007. The economy is recovering!

Dow Jones has another statistics, in my opinion, much more speaking: the average amount of venture capital invested in private companies grew by 60%. Really solid figure, speaking for itself. There is another one the same: the amount of time it takes a company to prepare for a public offering of shares is more than 8 years.

"Mom, I'll finish the math tomorrow"

In my opinion, there are not so many companies on the market today that can really interest an “average” investor, and you can count them on the fingers of one hand. Bending like this, starting with the big one: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon, LinkedIn.

Big Three

I have selected the Big Three on the basis of simple factors: a huge amount of data that each user of each network “litters” separately, where each type of data has a potentially equal weight and cost.

Groupon

The highlight of the next two years. A company in which they know how to use the moment and the general interest in order to collect more money, and then collect even more money in order to eventually collect all the money on this planet. Joke.

Grupon does not hide his intentions and has already stated that he prepares himself in a public offering of shares with his own forces. WTF? Why then needed bed intrigues with Google? The answer is simple: $ 15 billion that the company is rumored to want to collect when going public.

And this is what Groupon wants to attract: 35 countries of coverage, 500 markets opened in 2010, a 2500% increase in subscribers over the last year, representing 60,000 different small and medium-sized companies. How much do you say? Yes, wrap.

Approximate delivery date: 2012, although it all depends on the following two artists. No less talented.

Twitter

My personal favorite. A company that so far denies all thoughts of selling (unlikely), or a public offering (medium probability). In terms of profitability, Twitter lags behind the two leaders, however, in terms of growth and adequacy to the market (that is, the monetization model), it will give odds to any Mordocnig .

And here's why: the leadership wants it to remain independent. Already today, the company harmoniously puts into operation a monetization model, without annoying users, and at the same time earning money.

Not a single advertisement, but also a so-called. "Content that are also ads." These are, first of all, Promoted Tweets and Promoted Accounts, which have changed the economics of the microblogging network. If seeing the ad on TV, most viewers will switch it sooner, then “certified advertising accounts” read on Twitter, because “there is no spam”.

But, anyway, trends dictate fashion. And if yesterday's startups tomorrow start applying for an open listing, Twitter will have nothing left to do but join. The economy says that if money is on the table, the one who takes it first wins.

Facebook

Do you still hold your thumb bulged?

Facebook IPO is a real blast. And the fact that it will happen in the foreseeable future, is becoming more pronounced.

For example, the SecondMarket platform, which deals with the resale of shares of private companies, announces a new record in trading in pieces of our personal data.

On the last day of last year’s trade, December 15, one share of Facebook was worth $ 22.75. On Friday, the closing price was $ 28.26 per share. A total of 2.5 billion. And this is already $ 75.65 billion. Market. Capitalization. Just a month and a half ago, it was $ 50 billion.

At this rate, the bubble will burst even before it can roll out on the NASDAQ.

Self employed

LinkedIn drops out a little from the general circle, firstly, representing a different weight category, and secondly, choosing friends by status.

85 million users, $ 200 million net profit in 2010, an approximate estimate of $ 2.2 billion (according to SharesPost - competitor SecondMarket)

The price / earnings ratio resulting from this equation is 11. I remind you that Facebook has the same figure for a hundred .

On top of that, it seems that it’s the business network that is best able to do the business itself. In addition to advertising, LinkedIn generates revenue from premium accounts and hiring services for businesses.

Do not forget about the “social network” itself, which consists mainly of professionals representing the middle class by American standards and above. Where each representative has business connections of different levels.

Can this provide a large offer? Sure. LinkedIn will be helped by guys with experience: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase, according to rumors signed by advisors at IPO. Plans are confirmed by the company's CEO with the words that “a public offering will help support a long-term development strategy,” and other blah.

How much is opium for the people

44 companies are already registered for public release this year. Whether their list will be replenished with some of those mentioned above, time will tell; preparing for an IPO is a difficult and time-consuming business. But the wait is definitely worth it.

Not only to those who want to try their hand at speculation or investing in securities of the stock market, but also to others who think that all this means nothing. It even means.

If you suddenly thought that “public offering” means the publicity of the owners, actions and consequences, then you are mistaken. Large corporations still keep their accounts at the castle, anticipating the seething in the pond. All those who are saving money today (Apple: $ 51 billion, Google:> $ 35 billion, Microsoft: and it’s scary to think) will be the first to take confident steps in the primary market. For them, strategic investment is not fun, but a goal.

And in spite of the fact that in the economy most startups in one way or another participate in pricing on the stock exchange (through acquisitions), an IPO is a vital process that translates a “startup” into a state of “technology giant”, which then absorbs the same startups as it was once, and the proximity of the IPO stirs the need to make purchases (in accounting, expenses are always the first, remember?)

Catch fish, big and small.

In preparing the material were used publication TechCrunch , RWW , Wired