TV hits back
We do not watch TV. This is a “debilka”, “a box for gopoty and retired”. Here is a computer with the Internet - this is our everything. And the TV has long gone to the dustbin of history.
Hardly anyone would argue with that (even if secretly looking at TNT). But it will be only a few years, and instead of the next computer, many of us will buy a new TV. True, it will be a completely different TV.
Let's delve a little into the theory of the development of technical systems .
In particular, we are interested in the period when the old technical system can no longer develop on its own and is preparing to give life to a new system, which usually enters as a subsystem.
')
At this transitional stage, interesting things happen to the system - it is not childishly stinging, as a result of which strange hybrids of the old and the new are born. They do not survive in the future, but they help to move to a new system less painfully.
For example, the first steam engines were installed on sailing ships, and for some time sailboats with pipes were embroidered on the seas:
A source
Between the stage and the tram there was a horse: almost like a tram, but instead of an engine - a horse:
A source
Exactly the same process we are now watching with televisions. My TV, purchased this year, can watch videos from YouTube, pictures from Flikra, not to mention files from a flash drive - that is, it is trying to “wise up” and connect to the Internet in every possible way (it even has a place for a Wi-Fi module) . And all this instead of just quietly dying, as before, the home radio did.
On the other hand, look at the home PC - after the children and housewives have mastered the Internet, it often serves simply as a network access window. Odnoklassniki / VKontakte are loading - that's it. Of course, there are fancy games, video editing, etc. - but the majority of people are completely satisfied with what their home computer can do, and does not wait with breathing for the release of a new super-powerful processor or the appearance of a hard drive of 10 TB.
But the redistribution of demand in the area of the most simple computers "just for the Internet to work" is becoming a steady trend. And the point here is not at all in a crisis and a fall in solvency - look at another phenomenon: the general love for the iPad, which is also geared towards the consumption of Internet content, although it costs quite different money.
That is, there are oncoming processes: the TV gets wiser, the PC - on the contrary, if it doesn’t become stupid, it doesn’t want to develop further. And both of these devices clearly see their main future as a network access interface.
There is a classic process - the curtailment of the “personal computer” system and its entry into the super-system - the Internet. This became especially apparent with the emergence and development of cloud ideology. The history wheel is turning once again - now the computer again wants to become just a terminal, a window for accessing the “mainframe”, the role of which at this turn will be played by the cloud. We use less local applications in everyday life, more and more of our personal and business information migrates to the Web. This process is gradual, soft, but it does not stop.
If you dig deeper into the theory of the development of technical systems, you can see how exactly the home personal computer collapses:
Here, in general, is the answer to the question “who will win the evolutionary struggle - a TV or a computer?” After the main part of the computing functions and the data storage system are finally transferred to the cloud, only the monitor-TV and the input system remain from the computer data, which will replace the keyboard with a mouse.
Kinect from Microsoft (or rather, its next versions) is quite suitable for the role of replacing the keyboard and mouse for this new device of access to the Internet. This interesting toy has every chance to resolve one of the main problems on the way of the TV to the Internet - the problem of navigation. Navigate through your favorite sites on the TV with a mouse and keyboard, even if wireless, inconvenient. Is it a matter of surfing on the “contact”, sluggishly twitching with your fingers and not lifting the fat carcass from your favorite sofa.
Here it is, our future “computer” - an ordinary TV, slightly smarter, equipped with a smart and standardized heir to Kinekt and broadband Internet access. Adieu, computer tables, along with mice and claves. Hello, "relatives" and video walls from "451 ° Fahrenheit."
***
In this regard, by the way, 2011 promises to be quite interesting - in it we will observe the emergence and development of intermediate technologies and hybrids, which, 10 years later, when looking back, will look like a horse and sailing ships with pipes. But without them, the system could not move to a new level of development.
First of all, I mean Google TV, mass devices based on which will appear in January. Be sure to continue to appear new models of TVs with sets of built-in services (as manufacturers do not understand that I will not watch only YouTube videos on TV? It’s just uncomfortable for me!) And on a parallel front, various setboxes and media centers will continue to fight for a place in the sun - dead-end, but the inevitable branch of evolution.
***
All these forecasts, of course, are curious, but is it possible to extract practical value from them?
Let's try.
If you are selling a PC - prepare a spare airfield. Yes, as long as these are laptops and tablets, but do not renounce the sale of "smart" TVs - otherwise, the home appliance supermarkets will completely consume your business.
If you are developing local applications - get ready to move towards the network. The trend is not announced today, but this movement is still at the very beginning - which means there are good chances to take a fitting place in this market. What additional benefits can your application bring to customers if it becomes online? The correct and timely answer to this question will bring your business to a new stage along with a growing market. Otherwise - gradual stagnation and death.
Startups separately need to keep your eyes open - if you catch the trend and understand what is happening and why, there are good chances to catch a goldfish in the muddy water of the transition period.
Imagine, because tomorrow, TVs will be able to launch applications. What will they be? What will be claimed by people first of all? How to make these applications so simple and relevant that your grandmother wants to use?
In general, the field for the use of force and fantasy is very wide.
PS Well, in conclusion, I want to calm down the workers - the PC will not die, and you will not be forced to program while lying on the couch, twisting the kinekta blowing as special characters. Just like the accountant has a convenient Citizen with big buttons at your fingertips, you will have your usual PC - well, or at least a keyboard with a mouse. And yet - perhaps even after many years, personal computers will live. They will be steep and expensive, they will have real connoisseurs, like good vinyl turntables. But all around will "work" on televisions and smartphones - or rather, what will come to replace them.
Hardly anyone would argue with that (even if secretly looking at TNT). But it will be only a few years, and instead of the next computer, many of us will buy a new TV. True, it will be a completely different TV.
Let's delve a little into the theory of the development of technical systems .
In particular, we are interested in the period when the old technical system can no longer develop on its own and is preparing to give life to a new system, which usually enters as a subsystem.
')
At this transitional stage, interesting things happen to the system - it is not childishly stinging, as a result of which strange hybrids of the old and the new are born. They do not survive in the future, but they help to move to a new system less painfully.
For example, the first steam engines were installed on sailing ships, and for some time sailboats with pipes were embroidered on the seas:
A source
Between the stage and the tram there was a horse: almost like a tram, but instead of an engine - a horse:
A source
Exactly the same process we are now watching with televisions. My TV, purchased this year, can watch videos from YouTube, pictures from Flikra, not to mention files from a flash drive - that is, it is trying to “wise up” and connect to the Internet in every possible way (it even has a place for a Wi-Fi module) . And all this instead of just quietly dying, as before, the home radio did.
On the other hand, look at the home PC - after the children and housewives have mastered the Internet, it often serves simply as a network access window. Odnoklassniki / VKontakte are loading - that's it. Of course, there are fancy games, video editing, etc. - but the majority of people are completely satisfied with what their home computer can do, and does not wait with breathing for the release of a new super-powerful processor or the appearance of a hard drive of 10 TB.
But the redistribution of demand in the area of the most simple computers "just for the Internet to work" is becoming a steady trend. And the point here is not at all in a crisis and a fall in solvency - look at another phenomenon: the general love for the iPad, which is also geared towards the consumption of Internet content, although it costs quite different money.
That is, there are oncoming processes: the TV gets wiser, the PC - on the contrary, if it doesn’t become stupid, it doesn’t want to develop further. And both of these devices clearly see their main future as a network access interface.
There is a classic process - the curtailment of the “personal computer” system and its entry into the super-system - the Internet. This became especially apparent with the emergence and development of cloud ideology. The history wheel is turning once again - now the computer again wants to become just a terminal, a window for accessing the “mainframe”, the role of which at this turn will be played by the cloud. We use less local applications in everyday life, more and more of our personal and business information migrates to the Web. This process is gradual, soft, but it does not stop.
If you dig deeper into the theory of the development of technical systems, you can see how exactly the home personal computer collapses:
Here, in general, is the answer to the question “who will win the evolutionary struggle - a TV or a computer?” After the main part of the computing functions and the data storage system are finally transferred to the cloud, only the monitor-TV and the input system remain from the computer data, which will replace the keyboard with a mouse.
Kinect from Microsoft (or rather, its next versions) is quite suitable for the role of replacing the keyboard and mouse for this new device of access to the Internet. This interesting toy has every chance to resolve one of the main problems on the way of the TV to the Internet - the problem of navigation. Navigate through your favorite sites on the TV with a mouse and keyboard, even if wireless, inconvenient. Is it a matter of surfing on the “contact”, sluggishly twitching with your fingers and not lifting the fat carcass from your favorite sofa.
Here it is, our future “computer” - an ordinary TV, slightly smarter, equipped with a smart and standardized heir to Kinekt and broadband Internet access. Adieu, computer tables, along with mice and claves. Hello, "relatives" and video walls from "451 ° Fahrenheit."
***
In this regard, by the way, 2011 promises to be quite interesting - in it we will observe the emergence and development of intermediate technologies and hybrids, which, 10 years later, when looking back, will look like a horse and sailing ships with pipes. But without them, the system could not move to a new level of development.
First of all, I mean Google TV, mass devices based on which will appear in January. Be sure to continue to appear new models of TVs with sets of built-in services (as manufacturers do not understand that I will not watch only YouTube videos on TV? It’s just uncomfortable for me!) And on a parallel front, various setboxes and media centers will continue to fight for a place in the sun - dead-end, but the inevitable branch of evolution.
***
All these forecasts, of course, are curious, but is it possible to extract practical value from them?
Let's try.
If you are selling a PC - prepare a spare airfield. Yes, as long as these are laptops and tablets, but do not renounce the sale of "smart" TVs - otherwise, the home appliance supermarkets will completely consume your business.
If you are developing local applications - get ready to move towards the network. The trend is not announced today, but this movement is still at the very beginning - which means there are good chances to take a fitting place in this market. What additional benefits can your application bring to customers if it becomes online? The correct and timely answer to this question will bring your business to a new stage along with a growing market. Otherwise - gradual stagnation and death.
Startups separately need to keep your eyes open - if you catch the trend and understand what is happening and why, there are good chances to catch a goldfish in the muddy water of the transition period.
Imagine, because tomorrow, TVs will be able to launch applications. What will they be? What will be claimed by people first of all? How to make these applications so simple and relevant that your grandmother wants to use?
In general, the field for the use of force and fantasy is very wide.
PS Well, in conclusion, I want to calm down the workers - the PC will not die, and you will not be forced to program while lying on the couch, twisting the kinekta blowing as special characters. Just like the accountant has a convenient Citizen with big buttons at your fingertips, you will have your usual PC - well, or at least a keyboard with a mouse. And yet - perhaps even after many years, personal computers will live. They will be steep and expensive, they will have real connoisseurs, like good vinyl turntables. But all around will "work" on televisions and smartphones - or rather, what will come to replace them.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/110198/
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