Heat in Russia and floods in Asia may be related

^{Dark red indicates regions where the temperature is at least 12 ° C higher than normal, dark blue — where it is 12 ° C lower than normal.}



Although most meteorologists say that the current heat in Russia and flooding in Southeast Asia fit into the climate trend (read, global warming), there are other opinions. Some experts believe that this is not a vague trend, but the links of one chain connected by a causal link in meteorological dynamics.



Monsoon rains in Asia are raising up hot air masses that need to go somewhere. Usually they go to the Mediterranean area, causing a specific hot and dry climate there. But this year, for some reason, they went north to Russia.



Meteorologists call the current heat in Russia the most unusual natural phenomenon in many decades. According to Russian experts, such an intense heat was not a thousand years . In Moscow alone, more than 300 people die from the heat every day (the death rate has now risen from the standard 360 to 700 people a day). At the same time, a massive flood began in South Asia, triggered by unusually heavy monsoon rains. This is the strongest flood in the last 80 years, of which 1600 people have already become victims, while 2 million have been left homeless.

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According to Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Service of the National Atmospheric Research Center, these two phenomena are related to monsoon airflow. “During the monsoon, the ascending air from the ocean is picked up by a very humid air stream that goes to the coast - and there it is raining heavily. This, in turn, causes the rise of air layers, which should go somewhere, - explains Trenbert. “This year the special intensity of the monsoons is due to the warmer temperature of the water in the Indian Ocean and the air above it. At a temperature of 1 ° C higher, the air can hold up to 8% more water, and at high temperatures the speed of air currents increases. The air rises faster, it sucks in even more ambient air, and causes more rain. In fact, the effect doubles: 8% more humid air causes 16% more rain. ”



As to why this year the hot air changed direction and headed to Russia, Kevin Trenberth refused to speculate, citing historical weather patterns that depend on many factors. For example, this year, the role could be played by reducing to the minimum level of ice in the Arctic, reflecting solar heat.