At Habré already published the predictions of
Dave Evans about the soon (and not so) future of computing systems.
Now, a futurist with 20 years of experience at Cisco Systems has come up
with equally impressive statements.
For example, he believes that within 50 years, mankind will receive full-fledged speech analyzers and some “thinking machines” (“thinking machines” - one can only guess what lies behind these words).
Evans draws our attention to quantum computing and gives an example of the effectiveness of quantum computers:
If you take 5 thousand planets the size of Earth and cover them with ordinary computers, then the resulting system will be comparable in computing power to a quantum computer the size of an atom.
It is on these principles that “thinking computers” should be built.
For several decades, a person will be able to recreate any part of his body, with the help of which it will be possible to cure cancer and fight old age.
Dave several times dwelt on the essence of technical forecasting and talked about the peculiarities of the futurologist’s work, and also noted the need to live more carefully and carefully to prevent such phenomena as global warming and environmental pollution.
After asking, “When will computers take over the world?” The futurologist remarked that, figuratively speaking, they had already done so. At the same time, he apparently had in mind that computers surround us everywhere and their disappearance, perhaps, would put humanity on its knees.
Further, Evans told something else about the concept of the “Internet of Things”. He showed that this thought has all the possibilities to become a reality. currently only 25% of the population of the Earth has access to the Internet, while there are about 35 billion things that can be connected to the network, which exceeds the population of the Earth more than 5 times (as of January 1, 2010).
There was also an example of using the “Internet of Things” structure to predict climate change. Each device equipped with temperature and other sensors can transmit information to data centers, which will help to more accurately predict weather changes. Moreover, things connected to the Internet can not only help a person by providing additional information, but also work more efficiently, sharing it with each other (which is very important for smart home systems, etc.).
To the question “Will computers be replaced by humans?” The futurologist replied that, whatever the technical advances of mankind, they could not completely replace a person. But as it was before, the development of civilization helps a person to focus on more “advanced” things - new research, etc.
Dave also notes the rapid growth of the amount of information in the network, giving truly amazing numbers (for example, 20 hours of video are uploaded to youtube every minute), but also draws our attention to the fact that an increase in the amount of information does not always lead to an increase in the amount of knowledge. And the more difficult this knowledge is to get, the more information you have to process. This topic, by the way, is very relevant. Especially for Habrahabr.
Finally, to the question “How can technologies help the environment?” Evans was quick to explain that technology itself is not evil, but only a tool created by man himself. This tool can help us understand how certain things work, help us more accurately analyze the processes of nature and, as a result, make more efficient use of environmental resources.
Video duration - 31 min. 42 sec
English languageActually, the video
Aunty from Cisco in the video repeatedly notes that the company will be happy with any questions about the technical future, which can be sent to them via email, twitter or facebook.Evans' December PredictionsPDF-ka with the biography of Dave EvansTalk2Cisco channel on ustream.tvCiscoSystems page on facebook
Twitter: Dave Evans
, Cisco Systems
Good luck and speedy fulfillment of predictions!